Well this is an absolute disaster. One of my worst totals picks in awhile. Hopefully nobody here followed.
Well this is an absolute disaster. One of my worst totals picks in awhile. Hopefully nobody here followed.
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
i did. gonna have to stop again.
Well I can't win every day.
i did. gonna have to stop again.
I've done very well in NBA overall, even after that 1-10 streak last month. And since November 18, I've done especially well.
NFL I've been losing the entire way (though not terribly), so it's more understandable if you don't trust those picks.
Still an outside chance at OT saving us though.
We got fucked. Caruso got fouled when going for the intentionally missed FT. Missed call. Should've been 2 FT and OT if he made them.
Oh well.
Here's some NFL for today.
Minnesota +220 at Dallas
Kansas City -6 -110 vs Chargers
KC/Chargers - Under 41.5 -105
Las Vegas at Philadelphia - Under 38.5 -110
Ind St/Wisc Mil Under 159
Pats for me
Dont mind laying the lumber with Jax either.
Just dawned on me that the Bruins (ML) and Patriots (spread) are the first and second most profitable ROI this season respectively. ++30%
Dirty water & math
Just dawned on me it’s beautiful cold and snowy in New England. Laddering the weather game over?
Shadeur INT over 0.5 -185 .
Minny/Dallas over 47.5
Taylor over 77.5 rushing yards -110 or over 95.5 rush/receiving yards. Old man Rivers play.
How many rungs on your ladder?
IPFW Mastodons Over 154
A Sanlmar ladder is not the masculine ladder you might have imagined. It’s a nit ladder from a nit and non NFL follower. It was just a weather system play.How many rungs on your ladder?
it’s still good units. Now back to NHL
Minnesota doesn't start 'til later.
Both unders won.
I almost didn't go with KC -6. I talked myself into it. I've hated the Chiefs all season, and even stated at the beginning of the NFL thread that they would decline this year (though I hadn't pictured to this extent!)
I kinda felt like the Chargers and Chiefs were going two different directions, but a lot of smart people were on the Chiefs this week, so I went against my gut and tailed them. Dumb!
I guess I can't complain about 2-1. I just should've gone 2-0 had I listened to myself.
Go Vikings
Here's an NBA game if you're tired of football.
Sacramento at Minnesota - Over 235 -110
Yes, my evening will be Minnesota heavy.
I actually had a fairly good NFL day. Lost, but less than usual. But I just cant help myself with these stupid Laker prop bets, and my timing is horrible. They are all fairly good 3 point shooters, but whenever I bet them they all shoot like ass.
I took Lebron, Smart, Hachimura (who is normally dependable) and Luka 3 point props. They are as a group 5-24 and I am likely to go 0-4. I need one more three each from Lebron, Rui and Smart in last 4 minutes of game; but I just dont see it happening.
Rui actually hit a 3 which would have put him over, but it was called back for a lane violation by Ayton.
Just cant get out of my own way and always take players who are going to have a horrible shooting night.
Edit: While making this post Luka, Lebron and Smart missed 3's. Fuck, fuck, fuck. Going to get swept. Now 5-28 combined.
Minnesota doesn't start 'til later.
Both unders won.
I almost didn't go with KC -6. I talked myself into it. I've hated the Chiefs all season, and even stated at the beginning of the NFL thread that they would decline this year (though I hadn't pictured to this extent!)
I kinda felt like the Chargers and Chiefs were going two different directions, but a lot of smart people were on the Chiefs this week, so I went against my gut and tailed them. Dumb!
I guess I can't complain about 2-1. I just should've gone 2-0 had I listened to myself.
Go Vikings
good calls today w NFL. you have done well this NFL season, no? in particular, the last 10 weeks or so. any idea what your win % is over the year and say last half season or so?
also, your minn ml gave me the courage to bet it hard. had a semi poor day and would have prob done ploppy w Dallas and been sick. anyway, very nice ML call. i only got t_200, did you really get +220 when line was 5.5?
i was late to this and watched it go down from 225 to 218.5 and decided to jump. got lucky. small bet.
G273434837 - Basketball - Minnesota Timberwolves vs Sacramento Kings / Game / Total / Over 218.5 -113
I got better. +223 on Polymarket, which is actually not that great considering it's no juice. Often I'll get something like +235-+240 in this spot.
good calls today w NFL. you have done well this NFL season, no? in particular, the last 10 weeks or so. any idea what your win % is over the year and say last half season or so?
also, your minn ml gave me the courage to bet it hard. had a semi poor day and would have prob done ploppy w Dallas and been sick. anyway, very nice ML call. i only got t_200, did you really get +220 when line was 5.5?
But my regular books were +218-+220 at the time I posted it. I always post the best true line on major books at the time, and I don't include any discounted lines. I don't include Polymarket because most of you don't use it, and it's not trivial to get on there for the average person.
Believe it or not, this isn't a great NFL season for me. I'm actually slightly DOWN at the moment (exactly 1 unit, with each bet also being exactly 1 unit). That's on the picks I've posted here, not the props I've done, where I've run really well, so overall I'm a good deal up in the NFL. However, even the picks posted here have been better than it appears by my record, as I took a lot of really close/unlucky losses early, and am just digging out of that hole. There actually haven't been many truly bad NFL picks, while there have been many which easily won.
At the end of November 2, I was down 5.7 units on the posted NFL picks, so what I've posted is actually up almost 5 units since then.
NBA I'm still a good amount up despite the 2-game losing streak. Glad you got it live and barely won.
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