*** OFFICIAL *** MLB 2026 Thread

[Dan Druff]

Yes, we are only 19 days removed from the end of the 2025 season, but the first game is only 4 months away.

Free agent stories:

- Will Cody Bellinger come back to the Dodgers as a free agent? (My guess is no.)

- Who will high-ceiling, low-floor Japanese 3B Munetaka Murakami sign with? Phillies seem to be the leading candidate right now.

- Where will Edwin Diaz land?

- Where will Bo Bichette land?

- Are the Dodgers going to sign Pete Fairbanks and call it a day regarding big relief pitching moves?

- Where will Pete Alonso land?

- Would the Pirates trade away Paul Skenes for a megaprospect hall?



Taylor Ward has been shipped to the Orioles for a prospect. Ward had 36 HR in 2025, but only hit .228. He has 98 HR since 2022, over about 2300 plate appearances.

[Sheesfaced]

Yes, we are only 19 days removed from the end of the 2025 season, but the first game is only 4 months away.

Free agent stories:

- Will Cody Bellinger come back to the Dodgers as a free agent? (My guess is no.)

- Who will high-ceiling, low-floor Japanese 3B Munetaka Murakami sign with? Phillies seem to be the leading candidate right now.

- Where will Edwin Diaz land?

- Where will Bo Bichette land?

- Are the Dodgers going to sign Pete Fairbanks and call it a day regarding big relief pitching moves?

- Where will Pete Alonso land?

- Would the Pirates trade away Paul Skenes for a megaprospect hall?



Taylor Ward has been shipped to the Orioles for a prospect. Ward had 36 HR in 2025, but only hit .228. He has 98 HR since 2022, over about 2300 plate appearances.

Dodgers are the current betting favorite to land Kyle Tucker. He’s probably going to get a 400 million dollar contract.

Also interested to see where Schwarber goes and what he signs for in years and dollars. He should command more than Alonso.

My Braves have made a couple of moves. They resigned Iglesias to a 1yr/16mil deal. He was brutal at the beginning of the season but lights out down the stretch. They definitely need to address the bullpen so I’m fine with that deal. They also traded Nick Allen to the Astros for Mauricio Dubon. Essentially they traded one elite defensive middle infielder who can’t hit a lick for another elite defensive utility player who can’t hit much. So long as they don’t make Dubon their everyday starter at SS I like the move as Dubon is a definite upgrade from Allen. It’s a pure salary dump by the Astros.

I would not be surprised if both Alonso and Schwarber resign with the Mets and Phillies respectively. But as a Braves fan im hoping that’s not the case. I’m also hoping last years season from hell was a one year aberration.

[The Boz]

Yes, we are only 19 days removed from the end of the 2025 season, but the first game is only 4 months away.

Free agent stories:



- Who will high-ceiling, low-floor Japanese 3B Munetaka Murakami sign with? Phillies seem to be the leading candidate right now.


- Are the Dodgers going to sign Pete Fairbanks and call it a day regarding big relief pitching moves?


- Would the Pirates trade away Paul Skenes for a megaprospect hall?

.

Phillies have a lot of financial decisions to make unless Middleton decides to jump into Mega Tax land like the Dodgers and Mets. They are going to be stuck eating most of Castellanos $20 million in a trade or outright release and Bohm is expected to make $10+M in his last year of arbitration. They want to keep Schwarber at around $30M a year and the only question is the length of the deal if someone goes more. Same with JT Realmuto who is older and slowing down but still by far the best catching option out there. Suarez is a goner and signing MM to play 3rd won’t come cheap. Bergman has also been mentioned but I don’t see him as much of an improvement than Bohm at this point in his career. Their outfielder is a mess with only Marsh as set on the roster for 26 and he’s average at best at the plate but a good defender. Without getting closer to $300M I just don’t see them being any better in 26 than 25.

Dodgers should absolutely sign Fairbanks, the Rays being as cheap as they are released him purely for financial reasons. His numbers have been dropping the past 2 years but when money (mostly) doesn’t matter, it’s a no brainer for them.

Scenes isn’t going anywhere in 26 unless the Pirates don’t want to sell any tickets. 27 will be a different story but with this many cheap, controlled years left there is no way they can justify it.

[Dan Druff]

Yes, we are only 19 days removed from the end of the 2025 season, but the first game is only 4 months away.

Free agent stories:

- Will Cody Bellinger come back to the Dodgers as a free agent? (My guess is no.)

- Who will high-ceiling, low-floor Japanese 3B Munetaka Murakami sign with? Phillies seem to be the leading candidate right now.

- Where will Edwin Diaz land?

- Where will Bo Bichette land?

- Are the Dodgers going to sign Pete Fairbanks and call it a day regarding big relief pitching moves?

- Where will Pete Alonso land?

- Would the Pirates trade away Paul Skenes for a megaprospect hall?



Taylor Ward has been shipped to the Orioles for a prospect. Ward had 36 HR in 2025, but only hit .228. He has 98 HR since 2022, over about 2300 plate appearances.

Dodgers are the current betting favorite to land Kyle Tucker. He’s probably going to get a 400 million dollar contract.

Also interested to see where Schwarber goes and what he signs for in years and dollars. He should command more than Alonso.

My Braves have made a couple of moves. They resigned Iglesias to a 1yr/16mil deal. He was brutal at the beginning of the season but lights out down the stretch. They definitely need to address the bullpen so I’m fine with that deal. They also traded Nick Allen to the Astros for Mauricio Dubon. Essentially they traded one elite defensive middle infielder who can’t hit a lick for another elite defensive utility player who can’t hit much. So long as they don’t make Dubon their everyday starter at SS I like the move as Dubon is a definite upgrade from Allen. It’s a pure salary dump by the Astros.

I would not be surprised if both Alonso and Schwarber resign with the Mets and Phillies respectively. But as a Braves fan im hoping that’s not the case. I’m also hoping last years season from hell was a one year aberration.

Yeah Nick Allen's hitting was brutal. He logged over 400 plate appearances, didn't hit a HR or triple, stroked just 11 doubles, and hit .221. He also struck out about a quarter of the time, which is LOL for a guy with zero power.

Dubon is definitely an upgrade. The .644 OPS is not exactly great, but a lot better than Allen, who was one of the worst hitters in MLB.

The Schwarber contract will be interesting because he will be 33 in March, doesn't hit for average and doesn't play the field. He does walk (over 100 times each of the past 2 seasons), so that helps. But the window might close on his productiveness fairly quickly, given his age. I have no idea how to value someone like him, in terms of salary. Much of it will depend upon contract length, as I could see him being useless in 2030 and beyond.

I actually hope the Dodgers don't sign Tucker.

The equivalent of catching a falling knife is signing a guy to a big contract who had a bad second half. He's had only two seasons where he's had an OPS of .850+. Give the big money to the players with reliable big numbers, not a "high potential" guy who has had flashes of brilliance but also a history of injury/slumps.

I know Tucker had a hairline fracture last year and played through it, so maybe that was to blame for the decline, but I wouldn't touch him for anywhere near $400m.

[Dan Druff]

Blue Jays signed Cease to a 7-year deal for $210m. Don't like it.

Two out of the past 3 years have seen ERAs over 4.50 and WHIPs over 1.325. Sure, he strikes a lot of guys out, but there's more to success than just Ks.

He will be 30 on December 28th. So you're getting the ages 30-36 seasons on a guy who had one stellar year a few seasons ago, and otherwise has unspectacular numbers.



Sawks acquired Sonny Gray for prospects, and also got $20m shipped to them to cover half the $40m owed. He had a no-trade clause but waived it, because Cardinals are rebuilding. Gray didn't have the greatest year in 2025, but he was better than his 4.28 ERA indicates, as he got bombed badly a few starts, but was mostly very solid. He's 36, but it's a fairly good move for a contending team like Boston to fork over $20m for a one-year shot at a guy who still can pitch.

Finally, the Angels are close to getting a buyout (sort of) from the final year of the Anthony Rendon fiasco: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...ny-rendon-deal

Rendon, who is owed $38m, might agree to a deferral in exchange for ending his obligation with the team. He hasn't hit a HR since July 2023, and didn't play at all in 2025. He went over 200 plate appearances in 2024 without hitting a HR. Rendon has long stated that he doesn't care about baseball, and it's "just a job" to him. People found it refreshing when he was mashing with Washington, but this foreshadowed what was to come, as he gave zero shits regarding righting the ship once he started to slump and experiencing injuries.

Note to MLB teams: Don't give $245m to a guy who openly states baseball doesn't matter to him!

[Dan Druff]

Ryan Helsley to Orioles.

Devin Williams signs with Mets for 3 years, $51m.

This slams the door on the Edwin Diaz era. There is talk that the Dodgers might go after Diaz. I suggest they pass, and get out of the business of signing expensive relievers.

[Dan Druff]

Good discussion regarding the 2027 season, and whether we will see a late start or a shortened season due to a work stoppage: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...pa-faq-manfred


CBA expires 12/1/26.

[gut]

Good discussion regarding the 2027 season, and whether we will see a late start or a shortened season due to a work stoppage: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...pa-faq-manfred


CBA expires 12/1/26.

The way I see it, if next year goes like normal and ANYONE but the Dodgers win the WS, it'll be a typical back-n-forth between owners and MLBPA. Probably wind up agreeing to another step of luxury penalties, possibly following like NBA.

If a Dodgers threepeat, I'd start to get worried about some owner v. owner shit. Like talks of bringing in an International draft and/or creating hard rules for deferred salaries.

[mulva]

i don't think williams slams the door on a diaz signing. cohen has deep pockets and they need more than one RP. it shouldn't surprise anyone if the mets pony up and sign diaz.


i really don't know their plan because i see many areas that need changing despite playing so well in the 1st half of last year. RP is a big problem. SP also cratered as well.

don't even get me started on hitting. metrics aside. lindor has disappeared in long stretches every season since the mets signed him. every season but the one two years ago when he performed like a star.

soto's overall numbers look exceptional on the surface as well. but they're not. he did not deliver when they needed him. he rarely got that big hit or HR to win games. i've never seen more hollow of numbers in my life. the mets really need somebody that can hit. alonso is prolly gone but he carried this team quite a bit last year. prolly more than anyone on the team.

as for TOR signing cease. wow. even factoring in inflation it seems really exorbitant and really lengthy. it doesn't seem like a responsible deal any GM should make imo. i guess at the very least he'll be an innings eater and help them win regular seasons games for a few seasons with the possibility of him pitching like an ace as well.

[Dan Druff]

Good discussion regarding the 2027 season, and whether we will see a late start or a shortened season due to a work stoppage: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...pa-faq-manfred


CBA expires 12/1/26.

The way I see it, if next year goes like normal and ANYONE but the Dodgers win the WS, it'll be a typical back-n-forth between owners and MLBPA. Probably wind up agreeing to another step of luxury penalties, possibly following like NBA.

If a Dodgers threepeat, I'd start to get worried about some owner v. owner shit. Like talks of bringing in an International draft and/or creating hard rules for deferred salaries.

Had the Dodgers swept the Blue Jays or won 4-1, there would've been talk already that things are going to have to change.

The Blue Jays bought them some wiggle room by taking it to 7 games and coming a hair away from winning the whole thing.

Not that the Blue Jays were low budget. I believe they were #5 in payroll.

[simpdog]

Blue Jays signed Cease to a 7-year deal for $210m. Don't like it.

Two out of the past 3 years have seen ERAs over 4.50 and WHIPs over 1.325. Sure, he strikes a lot of guys out, but there's more to success than just Ks.

He will be 30 on December 28th. So you're getting the ages 30-36 seasons on a guy who had one stellar year a few seasons ago, and otherwise has unspectacular numbers.

Contract size/length is a bit large, but

-he makes 32+ starts a year is very durable
-28.6% career strike out rate
-had poor defense in San Diego. Jays defense very good
-walked a lot of batters last year. Jays will work on this
-working on another pitch. Gausman and Trey have elite split finger pitches so he could get even more whiffs.

Gauman and Bieber are UFA after 2026. Need some workhorses to go along with Trey, Lauer or any young guys.

[Dan Druff]

Dodgers have decided to not just skip going after Edwin Diaz, but have also dropped their prior plans to pursue Pete Fairbanks.

Dodgers front office decided they are done spending big $$ on relievers -- at least not while they're still shoveling money to the useless Tanner Scott.

And speaking of Scott, they're going to give him another shot in 2026 to be the closer. If he fails, they're going to just keep trying whomever they already have, and see what clicks.

Roki Sasaki will be a starter, so he's not an option, though maybe he'll be used in the role in the postseason if no real closer emerges.

It's possible they pick up a few-month-rental in the midseason.



I actually agree with this decision. I am very against giving relievers big money, because they are so volatile from year to year.

[Dan Druff]

Jeff Kent made it to the HOF, 17 years after retiring.

17 years was also the length of his career.

He had 377 HR, 351 of which were at 2B, which is the all-time leader at that position, though I'm guessing that's going to be beaten soon enough.

His defense was good, but not great. He was a clutch hitter, and he did get an MVP in 2000 with a great year and an OPS of 1.021.

His power declined somewhat in his final 3 years (all with the Dodgers), but he still hit between 12-20 HR each of those years, and still managed to bat .280 or higher. He never had a big decline at the end, despite retiring at 40.

There is some chance that he was on roids at the end, as many were in the 2000s.

He probably wasn't on roids otherwise, because his career otherwise showed a normal trajectory, and he never achieved outlandish power numbers, despite being a natural power hitter anyway.

He famously didn't get along with Barry Bonds, which most people believed to be Barry's fault for being a jerk.

There is some question whether he should have been a HOFer, because he only had one year where he really crushed, and otherwise was very good but not great. He had four top-ten MVP vote years -- 1st, 6th, 8th, and 9th.

His career OPS ended up .855, which wasn't dragged down much by the end.

I wouldn't have voted him into the HOF, but it's not a terrible induction, as he did play a position where strong offense was valuable, and he wasn't a defensive liability, and in fact was a better than average defender.

[simpdog]

Diaz to Dodgers 69 mill over 3 years. Druff how do you feel about it? If he pitches well in the playoffs it will be worth it.

Schwarber staying in Philly 150 mill over 5 years. Not too surprised here. He's getting older the back half of this contract could turn out to be awful.

[Dan Druff]

Diaz to Dodgers 69 mill over 3 years. Druff how do you feel about it? If he pitches well in the playoffs it will be worth it.

Schwarber staying in Philly 150 mill over 5 years. Not too surprised here. He's getting older the back half of this contract could turn out to be awful.

Risk on both ends.

I was almost sure Dodgers were passing on Diaz.

Hate to say it, but I don't like it. Aside from super elite closers who pretty much never have a bad year (highly unusual), you don't sign relievers for big money, or you will get fucked. I've said this for years.

Diaz has had years where he looks unhittable like 2018, 2022, and 2025. Then there's years where he looks very hittable, like 2019, 2021, and 2024.

So who knows what the Dodgers will get? He will be 32-34 while he plays for them, so that's also a small concern.

He's been durable aside from missing all of 2023, a serious injury which occurred while celebrating. Maybe the Dodgers will sign Cody Bellinger who also got a major injury while celebrating.

I guess the Dodgers are making so much money that they don't give a shit at this point about possibly wasting it. The merchandising in Japan alone is probably printing, given both Yamamoto and Ohtani (not to mention Sasaki).

[gut]

Diaz to Dodgers 69 mill over 3 years. Druff how do you feel about it? If he pitches well in the playoffs it will be worth it.

Schwarber staying in Philly 150 mill over 5 years. Not too surprised here. He's getting older the back half of this contract could turn out to be awful.

Risk on both ends.

I was almost sure Dodgers were passing on Diaz.

Hate to say it, but I don't like it. Aside from super elite closers who pretty much never have a bad year (highly unusual), you don't sign relievers for big money, or you will get fucked. I've said this for years.

Diaz has had years where he looks unhittable like 2018, 2022, and 2025. Then there's years where he looks very hittable, like 2019, 2021, and 2024.

So who knows what the Dodgers will get? He will be 32-34 while he plays for them, so that's also a small concern.

He's been durable aside from missing all of 2023, a serious injury which occurred while celebrating. Maybe the Dodgers will sign Cody Bellinger who also got a major injury while celebrating.

I guess the Dodgers are making so much money that they don't give a shit at this point about possibly wasting it. The merchandising in Japan alone is probably printing, given both Yamamoto and Ohtani (not to mention Sasaki).

A million bucks for every 3 innings or so, if he is never injured. Who can judge Dodger funny-money finances anymore? If the Twins had signed Diaz that would be a catastrophic waste of resources.

[Dan Druff]

White Sox, Rays, and Twins win the #1-3 spots, respectively, in the 2026 draft.

Giants get #4, Pirates get #5.

Top 3 all go to AL teams. Giants got lucky.

[Dan Druff]

Alonso to Baltimore, which clearly isn't giving up after last year's fiasco.

5 years, $155m.

He just turned 31, so there might be a little decline at the end, but there's a decent chance they will get 5 years of legit production out of him.

He had a somewhat down 2024, hitting .240 with 34 HR and an OPS of .788, but he did quite well in 2025. His 2025 numbers were .272/38/126, with an OPS of .871.

He's been durable. missing no more than 11 games in any year, playing all 162 the past two years, and missing 3 or fewer games in 5 of his 7 seasons.

Mets are having a hard time retaining players, losing Alonso and Diaz in the past 3 days.

[Dan Druff]

Braves make two moves, pick up Yastrzemski for 2 years, plus sign Robert Suarez for 3 years.

Interestingly, the Braves picked up Rasiel Iglesias as well, so now they have two closers.

[simpdog]

Braves make two moves, pick up Yastrzemski for 2 years, plus sign Robert Suarez for 3 years.

Interestingly, the Braves picked up Rasiel Iglesias as well, so now they have two closers.

They're already saying Suarez is the 8th inning guy. Found it odd when other teams need a closer.