https://twitter.com/PoolGenius/status/1993401276680343628
do we need lac elsewhere down the road?
scary but new Orleans is aids but to bet on Miami...
i have to presume (wait do we still have LAR?) we will have better spots for them, but this would be easy.
He used the Rams already.
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
Hopefully this guy is trolling, and not serious, unless he legit thinks the Bears have a good shot at winning.
This has been the big debate point in Circa Survivor. Do you make your picks based upon maximizing the likely payout in the case you end up winning, or do you just try to maximize your chance to win regardless of how many entries tie with you?
I am strongly in the camp of playing to make it through the end, given that we only have a small number of chances at this contest lifetime (no matter how young you are), and going 20-0 on any ticket (with a different team each time) is really hard, even if you have 10 or 20 shots at it.
The only exception involves if you are planning upon selling the ticket (or a portion thereof), or hedging early. In that case, it might be smart to try to pick a path to where you'll have a high ticket value for those purposes.
I'm playing to make it to the end. If 300 people make it with me, so be it. I don't think that will happen, though.
BTW I am strongly leaning on BAL for Thursday. I need to submit by 10pm Wednesday. Philly is not looking all there. Note the massive choke against Dallas. Yes, Chicago is one of the weakest 8-3 teams I've seen in awhile, and yes this was mostly due to an easy schedule, but I could easily see them surprising Philly.
Eagles have had their offensive issues lately, scoring just 10 in Green Bay, 16 at home against Detroit, and 21 (but 0 in the second half) in Dallas.
I'm still deciding, though. The one reason to take Philly this week is so I can use BAL next week at home against the Steelers, then SF in week 15 at home against the Raiders, and Buffalo on the road at the Browns in week 16 (I would use Chargers this Sunday).
If I take Baltimore, then I'll be using Buffalo at home next week against the Bengals (with Burrow definitely back), SF in week 15, and Philly at Washington in week 16. Jayden Daniels will probably be back by then, but he hasn't been all that good this year, so that might not matter. Still, I'm not loving Philly on the road in Washington at this point, so that would be a nerve-wracking game. However, Philly against Chicago on short rest is also nerve-wracking, and even the Buffalo/Cleveland game on Week 16 is no lock, since the Browns play good defense at home.
Note that I saved Baltimore and took the less-favored Steelers in Week 11 -- a move which worked out so far, and now I have Baltimore on the table for either this week or next.
Feel free to throw in your input. As I said, I need to submit my pick by 10pm, and I will likely do it in mid-afternoon because I'll be busy later at night with family stuff and don't want to accidentally forget.
Well I'm starting to lean more on Philly here.
I'm seeing a number of sharps going with Cincy, which perhaps could be a function of forecasting Burrow's return (and thus getting nice closing line value), but also could be that Lamar Jackson had a bad game against the Jets. He threw for just 153 yards in 13/23 passing, made no TD passes, and had a QBR of 34.2 (ouch!) Tyrod Taylor was actually better, going 17/28 for 222y!
Also, the Bears' 8 victories were against the Cowboys, Raiders, Redskins, Saints, Bengals, Giants, Vikings, and Steelers. They lost against the Ravens, Vikings, and Lions. So they've beaten zero good teams this year -- all have ranged between bad and average. Can they really knock off the Eagles in Philly?
Both Cincy and Chicago have the same +253ish moneyline right now.
Using Philly gives me a better path (I think) for weeks 14-16, though Baltimore at home vs Steelers next week will be a bit scary too.
Hmmm
you have done great so far, so whatever you decide will be fine with me. you have studied this far more than me.
with that said, and these are just my cursory thoughts on these teams from my watching them on sunday ticket/redzone due to betting: i think philly will be able to beat chicago and tbh, cover the 6.5/7. chicago isn't that good, if even "good" and have gotten lucky to win a number of their games. phil had dallas crushed and then just went limp. given their return home and experience, that should motivate them to finish the game this week. balt from what i have seen still doesn't look like themselves. cinncy even under flacco has played better over the last five weeks save the more recent steelers game which just got out of hand. will burrow be ready for a good team on his first game back, idk, but a lot of times if the team hasn't already quit, when someone like him returns it will motivate the rest of the team to play better.
i think everyone will be on LAC sunday, but whatever. we move forward. that notwithstanding, and i am sure this would fall into daly's fancy play syndrome which hasn't worked well for either you, miami vs no on sunday should be a win for miami at home, off a bye and no is horrible and an indoor team. just something to think about. personally if i had two tickets i know i would put one on them and hope it can dramatically increase my ev.
i have not put much time into studying the rest of the year and best uses for the remaining weeks/teams, so my above thoughts DO NOT factor that in.
again, you have done great and bested 90% of the field already, so whatever you deem best will be good with me.
one last thing - what's the link so we can see what teams we have remaining?
Leaning Philly right now.
Balt in a division game when Jackson looking bad last game scares me. Plus the Burrow factor.
Here’s what I’ve used:
AZ, Dal, TB, Hou, Ind, GB, KC, NE, LAR, Den, Pit, Sea
Oh, and I’ve outlasted 95% of entries, not 90%!
Who has the better use later, Balt or Phil?
Balt has more use later.
Burrow is coming back tomorrow, as expected.
Also Lamar Jackson has his own toe issues, though he will be playing: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...ugh-toe-injury
Between these toes (Burrow's feeling better, Jackson's feeling worse), I think it's obvious who I have to select.
Philly has a few injuries too, with Saquon Barkley dealing with a groin problem (but will still play), and DeVonta Smith being sick (and may not play).
Bears had three starters who didn't practice: linebackers T.J. Edwards and Noah Sewell, and cornerback Tyrique Stevenson.
Anyway, I'm about to submit Philly. Hopefully I get to watch Baltimore lose tomorrow and at that point it becomes a freeroll for Friday. Otherwsise if Balt wins, I'll really be sweating Friday. Well, actually I'll be sweating Friday either way.
I tend not to care much about ATS numbers based upon some arbitrary metric, because usually it's just random distribution.
I do take notice when there is a possible reason for this (such as poor play in cold weather, poor play on short rest, poor play on the road, etc).
Anyway, after agonizing long and hard about it, similar to Week 11, I made my decision in what was a super close spot.
Just like Week 11, I went with the Pennsylvania team rather than the Ravens. This time it was the Eagles.
https://twitter.com/CircaSports/status/1993931365608542663
I was one of the 489 who went with Philly. The Ravens got 269 picks. There's 898 entries left total, because two geniuses forgot to submit their picks. There hadn't been a no-pick in 2 weeks, but we got two of them this time because of the nonstandard selection window (today from 10am-10pm).
We might get more no-picks on Saturday, as again there is a short selection window, though it ends at the same Saturday at 4pm deadline.
3/6 of the remaining Grandissimo picks went for the Eagles, and the other 3 went for Baltimore.
My reasons for going with the Eagles?
First off, they're not too useful to me going forward. While they will be big favorites on Week 15 against the Raiders, so will the 49ers (who face the Titans). I haven't used the 49ers, nor are they useful before or after Week 15. If I chose Baltimore this week, I'd be stuck using either Philly at Washington (scary) or Minnesota at Giants (also scary).
Here I will be able to take Baltimore at home versus Pittsburgh during week 14, SF at home vs Tenn on Week 15, and Buffalo on the road against Cleveland in Week 16.
This way I also avoid having to face Cincy (who will face Buffalo on the road next week) in case Burrow kicks ass upon his return tomorrow (which I hope he does).
Also, I just didn't like how Baltimore or Lamar Jackson looked last week, and this much-ballyhooed team has yet to show consistency. Their 5-game streak against mediocre-to-bad teams is not impressive. This is a division matchup, and a do-or-die game for Burrow and the Bengals.
Anyway, none of this is ideal. I do regret burning Tampa early on, as they will probably have a cakewalk in Week 14 at home versus the Saints.
But Tampa always looked iffy to me (they have a -25 point differential this season!), so I didn't see them as a "good team" to save.
Anyway, let's all root for Burrow to have a Thanksgiving to remember, and more importantly, let's hope that Jalen Hurts lives up to his name when it comes to the Bears, and not to our pick.
Some weirdo who has 4 entries fired 2 on the Bears and 1 on the Bengals. Insane.
Also, Brett Richey, who has one of the better looking tickets out there, fired on the +3 Packers for one of them, and Ravens on the other. That's ballsy.
I'm not doing any fancy plays with this ticket. I'm going to do what I can to get us to the end. If it works, great. If it fails, so be it.
More interesting there is how some of them are sacrificing tickets, picking Philly and Chicago, or Baltimore and Cincy.
"Sammy Sadist" is Sam Soverel, by the way. He's also in the final 6 in Grandissimo. He also posted a full frontal nude on X last week, for no apparent reason. (I think it's deleted now.)
Poking into NFL for the first time. Appears DraftKings has been getting torched by the bettors this year. Easy game?
Is Survivor sides only?
Like your post above talked about - this is right about when a fancy play gamble could win you the whole
Pot. A ML parlay on cinci and bears pays 13.5-1 give or take. If that hits your equity will undoubtably be improved better than +1350
Im not saying this is a good idea but its mathematically sound.
I also think its Phi or Bal this week. I think its Eagles with a slightly better playability but its close. At home vs LV in 2 weeks they will be the alpha play..... but this will probably be SF or Jax vs trash week.
GL
I would guess this is fake news. A lot of their business is parlays with bad odds, with tremendous hold. And they are very aggressive limiting “sharp” accounts.
I think it would be mathematically impossible for them to get torched by bettors.
But they are heavily regulated and taxed, so profit margin might not be as high as one might expect.
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