*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Krypt]

Okay, here are a lot of picks. Let's hope I don't get destroyed. Tail at your own risk.

New Orleans -2 -105 vs Cleveland
I didn't think it could be possible for me to pick NO as a fave this year. Yes, Cousins is that bad.

Detroit -13 -110 vs NY Giants
In 1991, I spread a rumor in my college dorm dining commons that they put chalk in the macaroni and cheese, and it was believable. This one is even chalkier.

Cincinnati +7.5 -110 vs New England
Somehow Flacco has been really good at home, and despite the 9–2 record, Patriots rank in the bottom five against the pass in Defensive DVOA.

Arizona +115 vs Jacksonville
Jax has done better than expected this year, but they're now overrated. Cardinals should win this one outright at home.

Dallas +145 vs Philadelphia
Eagles offense just hasn't been clicking this year, and Jalen Hurts is 11-18 lifetime ATS against sub-.500 teams.

Las Vegas -3.5 -105 vs Cleveland
Shedeur Sanders looked about as bad as he could possibly look last week. Cleveland's fairly good defense at home just hasn't translated to the road, and they're 0-5 overall while away.

Las Vegas vs Cleveland - Under 36 -110
Vegas is averaging 15.5 points per game. Sanders is a fiasco and will make a bad Cleveland offense (16.2 ppg) even worse.

[Dan Druff]

1) no trolling this thread

2) retard use of takei. I went 3-4 with a +145 winner so I barely lost

[Kalam]

Moneywise was far from my worst weekend, as I dont bet as close to as big as I have in the past. But bet for bet my worst weekend possibly ever.

I made 40 CFB bets on Saturday (almost all sides and totals so theoretically coin flips) and went 10-30.

And it wasn't even very many end of game bad beats. Most of the games after 5 minutes it was clear I was on the wrong side and my bet was going to lose. (For example I took Syracuse +39 and Notre Dame scored 3 defensive and special teams TD's in a couple minutes before even taking an offensive snap, and you knew it was fucked).

[Kalam]

Well looks like the Utah over finally fucked me

I took the over 3 point prop for the top 4 Laker starters (Luka, Reaves, Lebron, Rui) and they shot combined 20% from 3, and I was lucky to go 1-3. Brutal offensive basketball from both teams.

[Kalam]

Damn. Horrible beat. I took a live line over in the Wizards/Hawks game. Wizards had a comfortable lead and were coasting, and my live over bet was looking good too. But Wiards did not score a single point the last 5:30 of game, Hawks scored probably 12 points, and the live over missed by 2 points. It was insane. I know these guys are end of bench, but they are still supposed to be NBA players. it was like watching 6 year olds play. Dribbling off your own foot, shooting airballs, passing it out of bounds. It was a joke.

I also have O227.5 in the Magic game, and there was 146 points at halftime, so in theory it should be a lock. But after that last beat, who knows.

[Kalam]

As long as I am here, here is a betting beat story for the NFL game yesterday.

So the entire prop betting community was on Legette O25 receiving yards. He sucks, but between game script (San Fran expected to be leading) and how San Fran plays defense, he was supposedly in a good spot. I took the bet.

Another very popular prop was Bryce Young O20.5 completions or same reason. I didn't take that one.

Anyways, San Fran is dominating game, but not scoring a lot because of turnovers. And it is basically garbage time and Caroline is marching down the filed around their own 50. Legette has 3 catches for 22 yards (he should already be over 25, but he fell down on his own on one of the catches, but I digress). Anyways, I think on 2nd and 10 around midfield Young throw Legette a 15 yard pass for first down around San Fran 35 and life is good, and the prop community is happy because Legette hit and Young in good shape to get a couple more completions. But wait, while he was running his route Legette stepped out of bounds (for no reason, no one was near him) and so penalty.

And Young doesn't complete another pass and that is that. I will say my twitter timeline was very animated for a couple hours after that.

[Kalam]

Standalone Laker-Clipper game, so decided to open a beer, watch the game and place some bets. Anyways, so far have:

Clippers +6.5

Lebron O1.5 threes
Rui O1.5 threes

Harden + Kawhi combined 6 or more threes (6 is a win, not a push).

Batum O4.5 points
Batum O2.5 rebounds

[BCR]

Man did I get so lucky on an Az State cover. One of those that make you feel better about the beats. -5.5. Down like 8-10 most of the second half. Finally take lead at the end and I get a foul on Wash State they almost never call when Az State was up 4 with a second left. Guy just kind of swiped with horn going off and they called it and my kid nailed both free throws. Someone with a Wash State ticket just got a horrid beat.

[BCR]

Standalone Laker-Clipper game, so decided to open a beer, watch the game and place some bets. Anyways, so far have:

Clippers +6.5

Lebron O1.5 threes
Rui O1.5 threes

Harden + Kawhi combined 6 or more threes (6 is a win, not a push).

Batum O4.5 points
Batum O2.5 rebounds

I have to get to sleep soon so I just bet LeBron to score in first 3 minutes +120 on house special shit. I hope he chucks one of those 3s early.

[Kalam]

Standalone Laker-Clipper game, so decided to open a beer, watch the game and place some bets. Anyways, so far have:

Clippers +6.5

Lebron O1.5 threes
Rui O1.5 threes

Harden + Kawhi combined 6 or more threes (6 is a win, not a push).

Batum O4.5 points
Batum O2.5 rebounds

I have to get to sleep soon so I just bet LeBron to score in first 3 minutes +120 on house special shit. I hope he chucks one of those 3s early.

He tends not to chuck early. He tends to let Luka do most of the shooting early, while he eases his way into the game. But that is why you are getting +120. He has only played 2 games this year, but so far he hasn't deviated from how he played last year with Luka.

[BCR]

I’m laying down and just brought the game on peacock rather than put it on NBC. Do they have the Spanish speakers on regular NBC or did they just screw up the stream? Thought game was in Mexico City or something

[Kalam]

Standalone Laker-Clipper game, so decided to open a beer, watch the game and place some bets. Anyways, so far have:

Clippers +6.5

Lebron O1.5 threes
Rui O1.5 threes

Harden + Kawhi combined 6 or more threes (6 is a win, not a push).

Batum O4.5 points
Batum O2.5 rebounds

LOL.

Forgot, also have:

Zubac O11.5 rebounds
Dunn O 7.5 points (game just started and he already has 5, so looking good here)

[Kalam]

I’m laying down and just brought the game on peacock rather than put it on NBC. Do they have the Spanish speakers on regular NBC or did they just screw up the stream? Thought game was in Mexico City or something

It is an NBA cup game. They call it "Emirate Cup" but it is in LA. Horribly yellow floors, although I guess it is not that noticeable for players on the floor.

On West Coast the Orlando game was on Peacock and this game is on NBC. On East Coast probably opposite.

[Kalam]

BCR: Oh well: I didn’t even get a shot. What you get high off firing a bet you thought a loser. Good luck man

Lebron typically plays first 5 minutes feeling game out, often not shooting at all. Then he subs out early and comes in when Luka and Reaves sit at end of 1st quarter, and runs the offense with 2nd unit and more aggressive. Talking heads like to shit on Lebron for having a bad +/- the last couple of years, but a lot of that is substitution patterns and playing with 2nd team.

[Sanlmar]

Kalshi pays 3.5% on idle cash and open bets

Futures looking brighter

Checking out my Trump options to complete term

[Kalam]

I feel I am watching a soccer game. All the flopping and theatrics by Doncic, Harden, Lebron and Smart. Kind of horrible basketball.

Not a single player I have a 3 point prop on hit one in the 3rd. Looking real bad here. Rui hit a 3 first shot of game and hasn't taken one since. Kawhi and Harden taking a lot but cant make any.

[Kalam]

Standalone Laker-Clipper game, so decided to open a beer, watch the game and place some bets. Anyways, so far have:

Clippers +6.5. L

Lebron O1.5 threes. W
Rui O1.5 threes. L

Harden + Kawhi combined 6 or more threes (6 is a win, not a push). L

Batum O4.5 points. W
Batum O2.5 rebounds. L.

LOL.

Forgot, also have:

Zubac O11.5 rebounds. L
Dunn O 7.5 points W. (game just started and he already has 5, so looking good here)

In game I also took live:

Dunn 2nd half O 0.5 3's W
Collins 2nd half O 0.5 3's. W

--Small loser overall after juice. We move on.

As an aside the Lakers last 3 draft picks over the last 2 years (James Jr., Knecht and Theiro) are not in the rotation at all. Vincent and Smart playing over James Jr. as backup guards and LaRavia getting the backup wing run Knecht would ideally be getting. Theiro has played so little I dont even know what position he plays or who he would be backing up.

--I have watched a few Clippers games and they are just fucked. Losing Powell a lot bigger deal than assumed. Harden is trying to duplicate his Rockets style and just doesn't get to the rim or draw fouls enough to be effective at this age. A lot of step back 3's and end of shot clock dump off to teammates so they have to quickly take a bad shot.

No one else can playmake or generate a good shot. Chris Paul is completely washed. Kawhi can get his own mid-range shot, but that is about it. Zubac can be fairly effective when he gets the ball deep in the post, but they have no way to get it to him, as no one can break down the defense. They have a couple injuries, but even when the players that are coming back do come back (DJJ, Bogdonavich) little reason to think things will get much better.

[simpdog]

Leafs are a clusterfuck this year, however they are playing with more passion/effort and IMO their recent struggles are due to injuries.

Multiple guys coming back tonight against Columbus.

Leafs +100 or if you want to get frisky Leafs -1.5 +200

[Tellafriend]

Leafs are a clusterfuck this year, however they are playing with more passion/effort and IMO their recent struggles are due to injuries.

Multiple guys coming back tonight against Columbus.

Leafs +100 or if you want to get frisky Leafs -1.5 +200

i just got +245 -1.5.

[Dan Druff]

Milwaukee about to spring Giannis on everyone

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(Edit: Pick retracted -- he's not playing, announced minutes after I posted Mil +303)