*** OFFICIAL *** NFL 2025-26 Thread

[Sheesfaced]

I was shocked to see that 33% of the picks were on Atlanta, given the Penix news. It was there on ESPN early in the morning Saturday -- you just had to find it.

https://www.espn.com/contributor/ada.../a739b2271417e



If you saw it and decided to go against dysfunctional Miami anyway, that's one thing.

But if you submitted the pick not having gone through the news, and would have picked something else had you read it, then that's just not very smart.

I'll be honest. The field on Circa Survivor has gotten MUCH tougher this year. There are a lot fewer ploppies firing idiotic picks, and a lot more people picking for value and keeping an eye towards the future. Today was one of the few weeks where I think a lot of the field didn't pick well -- and I'm not just being results oriented.

As someone that closely follows the Falcons and has watched all of their games, I think the Penix/Cousins news was seen as a feature not a bug for many. In fact the line didn’t move at all. Penix has not been good this year. Thankfully, thru years of pain I have seen enough Falcons to where they are the one team I auto-fade in survivor and the Pats got me thru to next week. I think the bigger news was that Drake London was out.

Druff in the Circa survivor pool, do you just have to sign up in LV/NV and then you can submit your picks each week from out of state? Or do you have to be or have someone in NV to submit each week? I seem to recall in the past that in the Circa pool where you pick 5 games each week you had to be in NV to pahticipate.

[Daly]

I was shocked to see that 33% of the picks were on Atlanta, given the Penix news. It was there on ESPN early in the morning Saturday -- you just had to find it.

https://www.espn.com/contributor/ada.../a739b2271417e



If you saw it and decided to go against dysfunctional Miami anyway, that's one thing.

But if you submitted the pick not having gone through the news, and would have picked something else had you read it, then that's just not very smart.

I'll be honest. The field on Circa Survivor has gotten MUCH tougher this year. There are a lot fewer ploppies firing idiotic picks, and a lot more people picking for value and keeping an eye towards the future. Today was one of the few weeks where I think a lot of the field didn't pick well -- and I'm not just being results oriented.

I get why some picked Atl. I don't think it was a horrible pick. Vegas didn't move the line on the QB change so that should tell you what they think of both of them talent wise. This is/was the last week you could project using Atl if you had not done so already.

Was it a little "fancy play syndrome?" Yeah maybe


Going to be 50% plus on Rams next week. Ill be on them as well...... but this may be the one to go "fancy play" myself.

[Dan Druff]

Rams are -14 right now.

You don't see many of those losing. The Rams aren't going to have a great spot after this. They are at Carolina on Week 13, but I don't like facing Carolina when they're home. I already got half my tickets eaten by that. The Panthers are 4-4, they've been better than expected overall.

As ploppyish as it feels, I think you gotta do Rams. It's Week 9. We are in the middle of the contest, and it's becoming more important to survive rather than get fancy, provided you don't run yourself into a super tough spot in the future.

Weeks 11-12 will be tough, provided I make it there. If I can get through 12, I like my chances to run deep.

[Tellafriend]

Rams are -14 right now.

You don't see many of those losing. The Rams aren't going to have a great spot after this. They are at Carolina on Week 13, but I don't like facing Carolina when they're home. I already got half my tickets eaten by that. The Panthers are 4-4, they've been better than expected overall.

As ploppyish as it feels, I think you gotta do Rams. It's Week 9. We are in the middle of the contest, and it's becoming more important to survive rather than get fancy, provided you don't run yourself into a super tough spot in the future.

Weeks 11-12 will be tough, provided I make it there. If I can get through 12, I like my chances to run deep.

sent you a pm yest.

[Daly]

Rams are -14 right now.

You don't see many of those losing. The Rams aren't going to have a great spot after this. They are at Carolina on Week 13, but I don't like facing Carolina when they're home. I already got half my tickets eaten by that. The Panthers are 4-4, they've been better than expected overall.

As ploppyish as it feels, I think you gotta do Rams. It's Week 9. We are in the middle of the contest, and it's becoming more important to survive rather than get fancy, provided you don't run yourself into a super tough spot in the future.

Weeks 11-12 will be tough, provided I make it there. If I can get through 12, I like my chances to run deep.

We have made it a long way but are not quite in "kill shot" range.

That said if the Rams did lose this week I think we would enter the end game phase.

It may not be this week but sometime in the next 5 weeks some -10+ team will get upset and we will be down under 10% of starting entries.

I just hope its not this week because I agree with you on Rams

[Dan Druff]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/CircaSports/status/1983210069412966857


If you look at their link of available teams, you'll see some interesting things.

99.8% of people have Atlanta available, because both times they were taken by a lot of people, they lost!

Here's the teams with low or semi-low availability. I put a * in front of the ones I still have available.

ARI 31.1%
*BUF 32.0%
*DEN 31.8%
*DET 30.6%
GB 36.5%
IND 2.1% (!!)
KC 57.3%
NE 51.7%
*SEA 45.5%

Of these nine, only 8 have utility. Arizona is shit, has lost 5 games in a row, and does not have any remaining weak opponents.

Seattle has some moderate utility, in an 11/23 game at TN and a Week 17 game at Carolina.


I am in decent shape, holding 4 of the 8 in my pocket with 11 games left.

As I said, I'm going to be holding my breath during weeks 11 and 12, and Thanksgiving/Xmas might be a little tough (for everyone), and Week 15 might be a challenge.

If I do make it to 15 by some miracle, I'll probably start either hedging or selling action.

[Daly]

Completely agree on Arizona. Useless option now. Week one vs Saints was the time.

Buffalo is a good one to have around. There will be a week where you got them at home and everyone else "taking shots". At Mia and Cle or home vs Cin or NYJ are all very usable

Ive been a big fan of Denver since preseason. I think if you still got them next week at home vs Vegas is it (I do as well).

Det was backloaded in the season with better games yet many people seem to have used them already. Four of five remaining home games they will be a TD fav.

We have talked about GB. Maddeningly inconsistent. Still i see at least 4 games where they will be 7.5 or better fav.

Almost nobody has Ind. anyone who trued to zig while everyone else zaged ended up on them early and ended up with the best team in the nfl record wise. Dead team and if you have them there is only really 1 or 2 good spots left.... and I see some regression coming

I was fine burning KC vs LV as a 15 point fav. Id rather still have them if given the choice as non of the other 5 TD games in week 7 produced an upset.

Im Surprised half the people have NE left. They will run hot the rest of the season with that schedule but with a young team like that I could see them dropping a game they shouldn't. They have the Jets and Giants at home.

I personally think Sea should have been used before now but they do have zona at home next week (with a bunch of other good options) or on the road vs Tenn in week 12 (probably my choice).

Overall Id say you have a really good spot. You just need to avoid the one big big blowup that knocks out half the field one of these weeks (easier said)

[Dan Druff]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/CircaSports/status/1984792274161844240


Almost 65% took the Rams... including this ploppy.

Not only are they at home against the hapless Saints, but the Saints are also banged up.

The contrarian play was to take the Chargers against the almost-equally-hapless Titans, though that's a road game, and the Chargers have the tendency to choke. Also, as already discussed, the Rams have little future value because of their schedule.

If New Orleans somehow wins, those skipping them will look like geniuses. However, I don't see this as equivalent to last week. Note that the two upsets were only 1-touchdown lines, where this one is 2 touchdowns. Also, both of those games had a lot of risk to them -- Atlanta for using Cousins, and Cincinnati for just being generally shitty.

[Daly]

"For just being generally shitty" should be a permanent addition to the PFA gambling lexicon.

[Daly]

Well if you wanted to see Daly get busted by "fancy play syndrome" you very well might get your chance this week.

Seeing this distribution in Circa wasn't unexpected, but it is eye opening. 15 out of the 22 left in my local has Rams available and Im now expecting 14 of them to pick Rams (Me being 15). Getting down to 7 is a lot different than 700 and I think its time to try and "make a move".

I do see another 4D chess element here. I have said on record the worst week of them all is, was and will be week 17. I have seen some Modeling that shows Rams at Atlanta as -4.5, which would be the second best spread of the week (Indy at home vs Jax being 5.5 but not a big diff between 4.5 and 5.5 and I have used Indy already). Things can change in a hurry but its nice to know you are not at clear risk to turn into a pumpkin by a specific week.

So if not Rams, Who?

I have Chargers slated for week 13 at home vs Vegas. I also have the Lions as best play in week 12 at home vs the Giants..... step up to the podium Green Bay Packers. GB opened -11.5 and jumped to -13 (which is semi significant number) behind 63% $$. If Vegas took the action serious I guess so will I.

Best of luck to us all.

[Daly]

For the record I see the exact same set up for the rams except 14 is an even more significant number than 13. -1200 is probably every bit of correct.

[Dan Druff]

Sorry about the Packers. They're a maddening team.

If it makes you feel better, both teams which knocked you out today had a part in eating 5 of my 6 tickets. My 3 tickets on the Falcons died against the Panthers, and 2 other tickets that week died when I had the Packers at the Browns, in what was a brutal last minute loss that shouldn't have happened.

Since then I have learned that the Packers are inconsistent (but I've already used them successfully on this last ticket, so they can't screw me again), and the Panthers have the ability to pull off upsets, though usually at home.

But I get why you picked the way you did. If you aren't hitting your -13, then so be it. You can't really regret those choices.


Go Rams

[Dan Druff]

I didn't want to see Daly get busted though... fancy play syndrome or not.

I was hoping to see the two of us hand-in-hand in our respective contests (in a non gay way), walking through the Week 18 finish line.

I'm glad the Steelers looked good today because I might have to use them in week 11.... provided the Rams don't choke here. Another matchup of Old vs Old.

[Dan Druff]

Rams getting sloppy here.

They were about to finish 1H up 27-3, getting flagged with a dumb hand-on-helmet violation (dumb as in committing it) during a touchdown up 20-3. Then they couldn't get it done, had to kick a short FG, missed it badly (due to the kick being almost blocked), and then kept letting the Saints move the ball up field in the final 2 minutes. They threw away a good sack near the end of the half by unnecessarily roughing the passer (honestly kinda BS call), and the Saints then completed a TD.

So we go in 20-10 instead of 27-3.

[gut]

Atlanta and Carolina solidifying themselves as the 2 ultimate "stay-away" teams this year.

Even more amplified by their 1st meeting vs each other! Next one might be 30-0 ATL

no clue.

My vikings are kinda in that realm also. I feel like im watching different players on a week-to-week basis just wearing the unis.

[Dan Druff]

Atlanta and Carolina solidifying themselves as the 2 ultimate "stay-away" teams this year.

Even more amplified by their 1st meeting vs each other! Next one might be 30-0 ATL

no clue.

My vikings are kinda in that realm also. I feel like im watching different players on a week-to-week basis just wearing the unis.

I've been watching Carolina ever since they burned me, and I've been noticing how difficult they are to predict. And yeah, Vikings definitely in that area too, except for Survivor purposes, they're not a big factor either as a pick or an opponent.

That's a big reason why I felt it was obvious to use Rams today. I didn't want to use them at Carolina on 11/30. Seemed like a recipe to get fucked. Rather take the easy W this week and move on.

[Dan Druff]

We haven't heard from Daly since he got knocked out of Survivor.

Daly, give us a sign of life.

In the meantime, my choices this week are between Seattle and Denver.

Arizona, who shocked Dallas tonight with a 27-17 road victory without Kyler Murray, might be without him again on Sunday.

Denver will be playing Thursday, against a scuffling Raiders team which barely lost to Jacksonville in OT (and screwed my under).

About 45% of the field has Seattle available, and 31% have Denver.

Seattle is -7 right now, Denver is -9.

I might not want to waste Seattle, as they might be a good spot against the hapless Titans in Week 12, though they'll be on the road. Week 12 is going to be a tough one, so I hate to throw away that option.

Denver has a few options in the future, week 13 on the road against the Redskins, week 14 on the road against these same Raiders, and week 16 at home against the Jaguars.

Can't touch Detroit, as they are my only real option for Christmas. KC and Dallas are used already. I also want to save Buffalo for the second half.

One good thing about saving Seattle would be using them week 12, and then giving myself the option to use Pittsburgh should I make tough week 17.

Decisions, decisions...

[mulva]

3 sb matchup bets


don't even need to pick the winner. just the matchup


ne/lar - 60-1
bal/lar - 55-1
buff/lar - 20-1

taking a stand against indy/kc and denver...pitt isn't even a consideration.

i expect bal to go on a run and for this matchup to be 20-1 soon.

[gut]

[Dan Druff]

I went with Denver for week 10 of Survivor.

This is the best spot to use them. They're -9, at home, and there won't be any remaining good home spots for them. They'll be against these same Raiders in the future, but on the road.

Note that this game is today, not Sunday.



There's no way 32%+ of the field can pick this one, because there's only 31.8% of all entries which have Denver available.

Other expected big entries this week will be Carolina, Buffalo, and Seattle.

I'd rather save Seattle (-6.5 on the road right now) for another week. Saving Buffalo, too. Don't trust Carolina yet, though that's the "fancy play" of the week. The Panthers sit at -5.5 at home versus the hapless Saints, with a 11mph wind forecasted.

Last week was the first time in the contest where people didn't forget to pick.

I hope I can get a W here, and then spend Sunday rooting against the Bills, Seahawks, and Panthers.