Originally Posted by lol wow
Almost as pointless as Arizona.
I'll actually be in Arizona in a couple days.
Almost as pointless as Arizona.
I'll actually be in Arizona in a couple days.
Lots of weird and improbable finishes to NFL games this season.
I don't even know which game was the biggest choke of the season. After just 7 weeks, there are so many worthy entries to choose from.
This was worse than just the Giants blowing a 19-0 4th quarter lead, and a 26-8 lead with 5:21 left.
They fell behind 30-26, scored an unlikely TD, and then missed the crucial fucking EP to make it so a field goal to beat them in regulation. And then in 48 seconds, they allowed exactly that to happen.
I think I need to make an NFL PFA fail gif.
https://twitter.com/CoachDanCasey/status/1979944047297851471
Someone gif this clip.
bro are you coming after the saguaro state while living in the literal wastelands of texas oklahoma puuuuhleeeeze son
Okay, I did it.
:fail3
is
Okay, I did it.
:fail3
is
that one is going to give me ptsd.
https://twitter.com/SurvivorAtlas/status/1980680557693718732
Six teams 7+ favorites, plus Balt is 6.5 favorite over Chicago, and even lowly Cincinnati is 6.5 favorite over NYJ.
I just don't trust Cincy at this point, even with Flacco being a moderate improvement. That Baltimore one scares me.
I cannot use KC or Indy.
That leaves me with Atl (vs Mia), Buf (at Carolina), Philly (vs NYG), and NE (vs Cle).
I'm not going to waste Philly at this point, and definitely not Buffalo on the road.
So it really comes down to Atlanta (which ate half my tickets on week 2) and New England (versus a Cleveland team which beat 2 of my other tickets).
Both are -7 at the moment. Hmmm...
Hope these % hold. Ill take Eagles.
They won't hold for your contest because you don't have Thanksgiving and Survivor does.Hope these % hold. Ill take Eagles.
Many people are saving Philly for their 11/28 game against the Bears.
I was a hair away from taking Atlanta this week in Survivor, until....
It was reported that Penix has a bone bruise and will "highly likely" sit. His replacement will be Kirk "Interception" Cousins.
Somehow the line still remains -7. No thanks. I realize Miami is a catastrophe, and Tua himself has been looking terrible, but still... Cousins was benched last year due to his interception issue, and now he's back a year older? Big nope.
Whole game looks like it will be a shitshow.
So I went with New England instead, who I was saving for another week I was targeting, but oh well.
Didn't want to waste Philly yet, and I just couldn't with Cincy, even though old man Flacco looked pretty good last week. That's a team I don't trust, even though the Jets are horrendous. Fields is back btw, after being criticized by ownership and being benched and then un-benched due to Taylor's lack of availability.
I don't love New England here. Their record is somewhat misleading, as 4 of their 5 wins came against the Titans, Dolphins, Panthers, and Saints. They are 1-1 against decent teams, upsetting the Bills and losing to the Steelers. And the Browns won by 25 last week.
Still, prior to last week, the Browns failed to score more than 17 points in any game. This is where I wish I had 2 tickets left, as I would split one on the Patriots and one on the Bengals.
So this week I'll have to hope that:
- Patriots continue beating bad teams
- Field somehow gets inspired by ownership bashing him, and has a good game, giving the Jets their first win
- Cousins is awful and somehow Tua gets things right
- Indy somehow has an off week and stops scoring a million points each game
So far I’m right about Atlanta. Pays to check news and submit as late as you can.
17-3 Miami at half.
My NE pick isn’t looking wonderful. They’re scuffling but still up 9-7 because Browns offense is shit. But not a great game so far for the Pats.
Smartest pick was Bengals, as the Jets continue their terrible.
Atlanta loses. Big carnage.
Now Jets have a shot, up 39-38 with 1:54 left in an epic comeback.
Hollllllld
51.1% of the field KNOCKED THE FUCK OUT!!!
https://twitter.com/circasports/status/1982255381176107115
And Indy hasn’t played yet.
Each entry worth $9099 now, from what I can see.
Indy is going to win, as expected.
First time since week 2 where I finish with more EV than my $6k buyin.
I gotta stop being tempted into betting Saints though. Ugh.
Is there a secondary market for those entries? Just wondering at what point where if you wanted to, could legit recoup 6k for the 1 left
Is there a secondary market for those entries? Just wondering at what point where if you wanted to, could legit recoup 6k for the 1 left
Gamboling is illegal at bushwood Sir.
Behold: https://survivorsweat.com/marketplace/listingsIs there a secondary market for those entries? Just wondering at what point where if you wanted to, could legit recoup 6k for the 1 left
Unfortunately, having one ticket, I'm not sure how much I want to sell, if any. I definitely would not want to take on any partners who have a say in what I pick. I want to win or lose with my own decisions.
Would I sell some % to a silent partner who trusts me not to be a retard? Maybe.
The $6k isn't that important. I made it $6k instead of $10k this year so losing it would be more tolerable, as that's (by far) the most likely outcome, barring sales on a site like the one I posted above. At the same time, it would suck donkey balls if I made it really deep and lost before I could start hedging, and still ended up down $6k despite outlasting a very high % of the field.
At the moment my equity is $9,099 against my $6k investment, so I'm not exactly crushing, but it's nice to be back in black.
There's only 25 listings posted right now. The cheapest is selling 22% at a valuation of $13,631 (meaning you'd get 22% equity for $2,999). The rest are all valuing their tickets of $15k or more. That's some markup!
That $13.6k self valuation is also funny because dude has used BUF, DET, GB, KC, and IND. Soooo... not the brightest future with that ticket. I have not used BUF or DET yet. My 8 so far are AZ, DAL, TB, HOU, IND, GB, KC, and NE. So I still have some good and decent teams locked and loaded for future weeks, including Thanksgiving and Christmas.
I was shocked to see that 33% of the picks were on Atlanta, given the Penix news. It was there on ESPN early in the morning Saturday -- you just had to find it.
https://www.espn.com/contributor/ada.../a739b2271417e
If you saw it and decided to go against dysfunctional Miami anyway, that's one thing.
But if you submitted the pick not having gone through the news, and would have picked something else had you read it, then that's just not very smart.
I'll be honest. The field on Circa Survivor has gotten MUCH tougher this year. There are a lot fewer ploppies firing idiotic picks, and a lot more people picking for value and keeping an eye towards the future. Today was one of the few weeks where I think a lot of the field didn't pick well -- and I'm not just being results oriented.
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