*** OFFICIAL *** NFL 2025-26 Thread

[Dan Druff]

GB doesn't have as much usability as you think.

Their last two games were losses to the Browns and a tie with the Cowboys.

Anyway, GB only has the following usable home games coming up, besides this week: Panthers 11/2, Bears 12/7. Maybe Ravens in second-to-last week if they still have their present issues. The rest are all road games or games against teams you'd really not want to pick them.

Hopefully you didn't take Philly. I briefly considered it today, but I didn't like it for future value reasons, road reasons, and regional rivalry reasons.

Every good team has at least one choke/fail under their belt so far. I think this season it's wise to stay away from road games, as much as possible. My quick 5-ticket loss in week 3 was due to trusting 2 road teams.

I don't trust LV at all. Pitts has been better than expected, but I don't trust them either. Washington is just baffling.

I'm considering Rams, but I'm leaning Packers.

I went Pitt. I am taking a gambol. If I survive this week my team will be miles ahead in remaining teams equity with only 34 to go (lot different situation in circa). A GB loss may very well win it for me this week, or come close.

I agree on your outlook on GB but I think on the road at Giants is a possibility of a TD fav.

Whats interesting is you specifically called out week 17. I hope Balt falls completely apart and I am the only one left with GB not picked. Week 17 is by far the most difficult week to project this season. I don't see a matchup where anyone is greater than a 5 point favorite currently. We a long way off from week 17 but i have my eye on this.

SF is a viable pick on W17, presumably.

Next week is going to be a challenge. I could chalk it again with KC (they seem to have their own issues, and may not be a reliable "good team" pick going forward), and I mapped out a way to have a lot of good home picks most of the way, even with GB/KC taken in W6/7.

But yeah your contest is different than Circa. And I only have 1 ticket left, so I don't want to fancy play myself out of this too early.

I just made sure to map out a path to where I don't completely fuck myself.

I don't think one gains much taking Rams this week, as they will be useful in week 9 at home vs NO. Same thing with Denver, who has good matchups in W7 at home vs NYG and W10 at home vs LV.

I really feel like this is a week where you don't get cute and just chalk it -- at least in Circa. I'll save Pitt for W11 vs Cincy, at which point Burrow will almost surely still be out.

[Dan Druff]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/CircaSports/status/1977194006183584199


Wow, less than 2% on Eagles.

The Circa field is sharper than ever this year.

Just two years ago, it was full of morons.

Some people trying to get creative with choosing Raiders, and might be sorry. They've looked awful, and Tennessee looked good in the 2nd half last week.

I was a GB ploppy.

[Dan Druff]

Denver, Indy, Rams, Steelers all got there, despite some early struggles for all of them. Only Denver and Indy ended up close.

Denver actually should've lost, but Jets blew their final drive. It was actually amazing that, had they opted for the 62-yard FG and made it, Justin Fields would have won despite passing 45 yards and being sacked 9 times.

Has a QB ever won with worse stats when the other team scored 13 or more points?

[Dan Druff]

Well, Green Bay turned this into a sweat.

They couldn't score against the Browns when I had them, and they ate 2 of my tickets there when they blew it at the last second, in what was a horrible beat.

Now they can't score against the Bengals, and just gave up a TD. It's 10-7 in the 3rd. Way too precarious for what was a 14.5 spread.

Non-GB pickers are very excited right now.

Almost everyone (13/16) in Circa Grandissimo went Packers, so that will be absolutely huge if they lose. One Grandissimo was on Eagles, so that's already gone. If Packers go down, then the remaining two people have 50% equity in $6.9m from their $100k ticket. Wow.

[Dan Druff]

GB managed to hold on, despite it being as close as 6 points in the 4th.

Wasn't quite as close as it looked, as GB did have the ball after it became 24-18, but they had a better lock on the Cleveland game and lost it.

Turned out nobody was wrong with any major Survivor pick this week. Top 6 all won.

[Daly]

GB managed to hold on, despite it being as close as 6 points in the 4th.

Wasn't quite as close as it looked, as GB did have the ball after it became 24-18, but they had a better lock on the Cleveland game and lost it.

Turned out nobody was wrong with any major Survivor pick this week. Top 6 all won.

I was surprised it wasn't more of a sweat although there was a minute there before GB responded with a TD that things were uncomfortable. When everyone wins the people who took the teams with the lower future value win the most. From that perspective its been a solid 6 weeks.

My personal projected roadmap/odds

7: KC vs LV -10
8: Phi vs NYG -13
9: LAR vs NO -13
10 DEN vs LV -6.5 (best projected spread)
11: GB @ NYG -8 (road game, GB been inconsistent)
12: Det vs NYG -10
13: LAC vs LV -6.5 not a lot of great options this week
14: TB vs NO -8
15: SF vs Ten -8
16: Bal Vs NE -8 (This Ass that bal is back and Maye isnt God)
17: Was vs Dal -4 (this is by far hardest week to pick)
18: Buf vs NYJ -13.5 (have to watch this if Buff has meaningless game)

[Dan Druff]

GB managed to hold on, despite it being as close as 6 points in the 4th.

Wasn't quite as close as it looked, as GB did have the ball after it became 24-18, but they had a better lock on the Cleveland game and lost it.

Turned out nobody was wrong with any major Survivor pick this week. Top 6 all won.

I was surprised it wasn't more of a sweat although there was a minute there before GB responded with a TD that things were uncomfortable. When everyone wins the people who took the teams with the lower future value win the most. From that perspective its been a solid 6 weeks.

My personal projected roadmap/odds

7: KC vs LV -10
8: Phi vs NYG -13
9: LAR vs NO -13
10 DEN vs LV -6.5 (best projected spread)
11: GB @ NYG -8 (road game, GB been inconsistent)
12: Det vs NYG -10
13: LAC vs LV -6.5 not a lot of great options this week
14: TB vs NO -8
15: SF vs Ten -8
16: Bal Vs NE -8 (This Ass that bal is back and Maye isnt God)
17: Was vs Dal -4 (this is by far hardest week to pick)
18: Buf vs NYJ -13.5 (have to watch this if Buff has meaningless game)

That's funny because we have a similar roadmap, despite some of our differing picks! Except I need 2 more picks than you. I also can't use TB or GB.

I felt like a ploppy taking KC next week, but at the moment that's my plan. I tentatively have Chargers W8 because I have to hold Philly til later, due to Xmas/Thanksgiving I have which you don't.

Anyway, I am taking the strategy with Week 18 to just go with whatever makes sense. That week is impossible to predict line-wise, so I'm not going to preserve any teams for it. Besides, even if I am left with shit options, I can hedge. Good problem to have. So I'll be using Buf before then.

GL. Hope we both find our miracle and make it to the end.

[Dan Druff]

Bills about to lose to an inferior team... again.

They have NOT looked convincing this season. Nor has Green Bay. Nor has Detroit. Nor has KC. Nor has Philly.

Will an actual dominant NFL team please stand up, please stand up?

[Jayjami]

Bills about to lose to an inferior team... again.

They have NOT looked convincing this season. Nor has Green Bay. Nor has Detroit. Nor has KC. Nor has Philly.

Will an actual dominant NFL team please stand up, please stand up?

Are the Colts the best team in football at the moment? Hard to believe, but probably so.

[Tellafriend]

Bills about to lose to an inferior team... again.

They have NOT looked convincing this season. Nor has Green Bay. Nor has Detroit. Nor has KC. Nor has Philly.

Will an actual dominant NFL team please stand up, please stand up?

Are the Colts the best team in football at the moment? Hard to believe, but probably so.

denver beat them until the refs gave the kicker a free kick in indy. beaten some good teams, arguably getting better, great defense, hard to beat at home. wouldn't fade.

indy def good too. just want to see them beat kc/lac, even atl this year. they have a fairly easy road to hoe.

[Daly]

I think we are losing sight of the fact that good teams, even great teams go 13-4. Losing ~25% of the time just happens in the NFL.

[VaughnP]

The Bills look like they are capable of getting things fully together by the playoffs, and the Lions look like once fully healthy and if they can stay that way, to be the only true tier 1 team so far this year. I watched that Chiefs game. Just when everyone thought the rigged shit was over, the refs put on a master class of Kansas City fuckery without even counting the non reviewable touchdown they overturned over a minute after the play ended.

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/Section344Lions/status/1977936785167523851

There still has been no real clarification on this - if he didn't put his hands under center he's just declared the QB by being close to him? Regardless, this game was full of controversial calls and non-calls at key times - Chiefs didn't have a single penalty.

[Tellafriend]

- Chiefs didn't have a single penalty.

except in jax where they rec'd one every couple of plays, and lost.