*** OFFICIAL *** NFL 2025-26 Thread

[Dan Druff]

No, money/bets discrepancy describes who the big action bettors like, but that doesn't always correspond to who is sharp. It CAN mean that, but it can also mean that the high rollers just prefer one team over the other.

Sharp money is something tracked by various services which watch the action of known sharp bettors (there's various ways this can be done), and report back.

There are various positive indicators you look for when placing a spread/moneyline bet:

- General sharp action on your side

- Known sharp bettors stating publicly that the side they like is also your side

- The money wagered being a higher percentage on your side than percentage of bets placed

- Reverse line movement -- when the line goes the opposite way you'd expect based upon the amount of action on one side


If you have all four of these, it's usually a great pick.

[1dollarboxcar]

lol, i just now learned that the Chiefs and Chargers game is in Brazil... and the viewing options is on youtube for free in the USA...

[Daly]

Circa Survivor has gone over $16m in prizepool, so it has already beat the $15m guarantee. They are still taking entries until Saturday.

I am in a decent sized survivor.


Give me Arizona in week 1

[Dan Druff]

KC Chiefs -- Not only did they play several bad games last year, and got stomped in the Super Bowl, but there's some concerns that the team doesn't have much depth, and that both Kelce and Mahomes will play worse this year. Note that Kelce is about to be 36, and Mahomes regressed a little in 2024-25 versus the prior year. Many think this is still a superteam, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them fall short of expectations.

[VaughnP]

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I really hope teams highlight this surprise shot in film the rest of the year and someone trucks him regardless of the potential flag. Given the circumstances this is one of the scummiest plays ever, he absolutely is taking full advantage of the ref favoritism and his perceived tendency to flop.

[Daly]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/SavageSports_/status/1964147942522069190

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/416PatsNation/status/1964174392482468327

I really hope teams highlight this surprise shot in film the rest of the year and someone trucks him regardless of the potential flag. Given the circumstances this is one of the scummiest plays ever, he absolutely is taking full advantage of the ref favoritism and his perceived tendency to flop.

I 100% agree and my guess is he gets a letter from central office to knock that shit off.

He may get a different QB killed because of this if word gets out that QB are now fair game that close to the sidelines.

[Daly]

It might be time to start to realize arch Manning isn't fully like his Uncles and more like his Dad.

[Dan Druff]

Circa contest final numbers:

Survivor: $18,718,000 -- guarantee $15m

Grandissimo (same as Survivor but $100k): $6,900,000 -- guarantee $1.5m

Millions (more of a standard handicapping contest): $5,685,000 -- guarantee $6m -- overlay $315,000


So Survivor and Grandissimo were a wild success compared to expectations, but Millions was a bit of a disappointment, and will cost Circa $315k in overlay money. Note that there is no rake, so they are also losing the cost of labor and operations, though they gain a lot of positive publicity from this.

[Daly]

Circa contest final numbers:

Survivor: $18,718,000 -- guarantee $15m

Grandissimo (same as Survivor but $100k): $6,900,000 -- guarantee $1.5m

Millions (more of a standard handicapping contest): $5,685,000 -- guarantee $6m -- overlay $315,000


So Survivor and Grandissimo were a wild success compared to expectations, but Millions was a bit of a disappointment, and will cost Circa $315k in overlay money. Note that there is no rake, so they are also losing the cost of labor and operations, though they gain a lot of positive publicity from this.

So who you go with

[Tellafriend]

My focus is on that AFC West. Most interesting division to me.

I like the under on Chiefs 11.5. Vet team that cares more about being healthy come playoffs than reg season. I also think Chargers can be really good. Broncos much better. Even the Raiders aren’t horrible, but I’d probably lean to the under 6.5 for +125. Having six games against the others is tough.

I like Chargers +320 to win that division also. I also like over 9.5. Just think they are at least a 10 win team.

Patriots 8.5 win total feels a little optimistic. I like Vrabel, think it’s a good hire, but not a 9 win team imo.

Don’t have any strong opinion other than we are at the point where KC coasts a bit. Winning every game by a FG and refs doesn’t feel likely again.

Money where my mouth is time in regards to Chiefs-Chargers


Single @
-106
Open
Sep 5 • 2025 At 09:38:52 AM
Ticket ID: 9528512
Point Spread: LA Chargers +3.0
KC Chiefs vs LA Chargers


Single @
+135
Open
Sep 5 • 2025 At 09:03:20 AM
Ticket ID: 9528413
Moneyline: LA Chargers
KC Chiefs vs LA Chargers

well done.

[Dan Druff]

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Here's the selections: https://www.circasports.com/wp-conte...Selections.pdf

I am "Vegas Casino Talk" on there this year. PFA name was used last 2 years and was a fail, so I changed it up.

3 on Arizona
2 on Jacksonville
1 on Denver

[gut]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/CircaSports/status/1964501663399760215

Here's the selections: https://www.circasports.com/wp-conte...Selections.pdf

I am "Vegas Casino Talk" on there this year. PFA name was used last 2 years and was a fail, so I changed it up.

3 on Arizona
2 on Jacksonville
1 on Denver

Really surprised at the jags/panthers disparity. Seems like a coin flip to me

[Dan Druff]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/CircaSports/status/1964501663399760215

Here's the selections: https://www.circasports.com/wp-conte...Selections.pdf

I am "Vegas Casino Talk" on there this year. PFA name was used last 2 years and was a fail, so I changed it up.

3 on Arizona
2 on Jacksonville
1 on Denver

Really surprised at the jags/panthers disparity. Seems like a coin flip to me

Let me count the ways:

1) It's -3.5 -112 spread right now. Such spreads NEVER see much action on the dog side in a survivor contest.

2) The sharps are mostly on Jax to cover

3) Jax is an attractive survivor pick because you're almost surely not taking them again anyway



It is interesting to me that, despite being a 6 point favorite, the Redskins are just 6% of all tickets, whereas Jax is 8% at -3.5, and Arizona is 22% at -6.5 -105.

I don't attribute this to people wanting to save the Redskins for later. I think they just don't trust them.

I'm also surprised the Bengals are only 6.6% when the line is -5. Again, I think people are nervous because a lot of the sharps are on Cleveland.

[Daly]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/CircaSports/status/1964501663399760215

Here's the selections: https://www.circasports.com/wp-conte...Selections.pdf

I am "Vegas Casino Talk" on there this year. PFA name was used last 2 years and was a fail, so I changed it up.

3 on Arizona
2 on Jacksonville
1 on Denver

I like the cut of your jib.

[Dan Druff]

That Atlanta ending was dreadful. Give up a late TD, get lucky and EP miss keeps it within 3.

Quickly move ball down with 59s left.

Two close TD passes to win, no good.

Miss 44 yard FG by a bit.


Jets also choked in 4th after looking good.

0-2 in my NFL picks, but 1-0 (3-0 in tickets) in Survivor so far, with my 2 tickets on Jax looking good.

Sadly the Redskins easily won and the Bengals squeaked by.

[VaughnP]

The highly improbable comeback turns out to be a scorigami game.

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/CornDoggyLOL/status/1964897462201753963

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https://twitter.com/DexsTweets/status/1964896623286456775

[Tellafriend]

verm, rip, will appreciate this even more.


was holding several 5 team teasers etc meeding 1 win to scoop.

i already had 1500 or so on balt. -1


so i tease buff to 7.5 hoping to middle. all the key #s.


buff misses 3rd 2pc. good. i'm golden. only 1.5 min or so left. just need a 1st down. from a team that can get them too -balt. nope. then instead of going for it on 4th they punt to a team they can't stop which only needs a fuckin fg. had they gotten 4th down the game would be over, buff had no timeouts. had they missed , ok, buff has no timeouts and will try a few quick passes and then take their fg shot. but balt still had all 3 of theirs. so they would have been able to have slowed the clock down. then they could have had ball last only needing a fg. but nope. why would the coach have wanted to of thought that through.. fuck. me.

[Dan Druff]

verm, rip, will appreciate this even more.


was holding several 5 team teasers etc meeding 1 win to scoop.

i already had 1500 or so on balt. -1


so i tease buff to 7.5 hoping to middle. all the key #s.


buff misses 3rd 2pc. good. i'm golden. only 1.5 min or so left. just need a 1st down. from a team that can get them too -balt. nope. then instead of going for it on 4th they punt to a team they can't stop which only needs a fuckin fg. had they gotten 4th down the game would be over, buff had no timeouts. had they missed , ok, buff has no timeouts and will try a few quick passes and then take their fg shot. but balt still had all 3 of theirs. so they would have been able to have slowed the clock down. then they could have had ball last only needing a fg. but nope. why would the coach have wanted to of thought that through.. fuck. me.

I’m starting to think we really are cursed when we bet the same side.

[Dan Druff]

Also, how was the city of Baltimore involved in TWO historic choke jobs (on both the winning and losing sides) in about 24 hours. in two different major pro sports?

And I was watching both games live as they happened.

[Dan Druff]

Week 2 of Survivor should be interesting.

Almost everyone survived... the Patriots and Dolphins ate 344 entries, but that's a pittance compared to more than 18k entered. The top 7 picks all won. This is the opposite of last year, where it was carnage for the first 3 weeks.

There is the huge favorite in Baltimore at home vs Cleveland. How will the team respond to what happened earlier tonight? They're lined right now at -12.5. This will be the ploppy pick for sure.

The 49ers are -7 at awful New Orleans. Similarly, the Rams, fresh off smacking the Chiefs, are -5.5 against lousy Tennessee. Detroit is -4.5 at home vs the Bears. Buffalo is on the road visiting the Jets, and are a -7.5 favorite. Somehow Arizona is a pick again, being -4.5 at home against the Panthers, who looked very bad today against a weak Jaguars squad. The Vikings are -4.5 at home versus the Falcons. Denver is -3.5 at the Colts, and the Chargers are -3.5 at the Raiders. Dallas is -3.5 at home versus the Giants, who looked pretty bad today. Shaky Cincinnati, who seems to disappoint in the early season, is -3.5 at home versus the Jaguars, despite barely being able to handle the Browns.

So there will probably be a shitload of picks on Baltimore, a lot on Buffalo, and a fair amount on the 49ers. But we should see at least a few percentage each of the other ones I mentioned.

I'll have to look at Baltimore's schedule going forward to see how many tickets I put on the ploppy side.

I definitely don't want to touch Cincinnati. The Colts looked pretty good, and I don't trust Denver to beat them in Indy. I'm open to all of the others. The 49ers still scare me a little, even though New Orleans is very bad.

I might use Arizona again on 1 or more of the tickets where I didn't already use them.

I'm open to any suggestions/comments. I know we have another 6 days before I have to pick again. as I won't be touching the Thursday GB/Wash game.

I also will be watching the sharp action and the casino lines to inform which way I go. Honestly I'm happy with my Survivor picks from week 1, as none of them were much of a sweat.