theres a rumor going around that trump is firing powell tonight

[Sanlmar]

The S&P 500 priced in dollars @Boz?

This is why I say ignore PE and all that cause we are gonna launch assets further if you measure in dollars - deficit spending and monetary easing are what’s growing actually

Measure the market in something of value like gold as a thought experiment. I’m fucking around here but it’s a concept worth internalizing. Things that make you go hmmm

A house built in 1984 is not intrinsically more valuable now - it is worth more only if measured in dollars



Footnote
Credit EoT ™

[Sanlmar]

We can task Sonatine with finding some chart for the Venezualian (hyperinflation) stock market adjusted for M2.

My budget grade AI is a fail.

You are still long a dysfunctional South American economy is my guess. It’s not a proxy for wholesomeness and prosperity though.

It offers a lesson

[sonatine]

We can task Sonatine with finding some chart for the Venezualian (hyperinflation) stock market adjusted for M2.

My budget grade AI is a fail.

You are still long a dysfunctional South American economy is my guess. It’s not a proxy for wholesomeness and prosperity though.

It offers a lesson

fwiw my area of focus was Argentina, not Venezuela.

[Sanlmar]

We can task Sonatine with finding some chart for the Venezualian (hyperinflation) stock market adjusted for M2.

My budget grade AI is a fail.

You are still long a dysfunctional South American economy is my guess. It’s not a proxy for wholesomeness and prosperity though.

It offers a lesson

fwiw my area of focus was Argentina, not Venezuela.

Maybe I got my hyperinflation mixed up. If I used even half the disk space currently occupied by the fail Dodgers …

[Sanlmar]

One of the mandates of the Fed was to maintain employment. A healthy employment rate meant more tax receipts from workers. This used to be perceived as desirable

Who gives a fuck about employment rates if we are aggressively cutting taxes anyway?

See how liberating that is? Who needs the Fed anymore?

Whispers and thought balloons about Treasury absorbing the Fed. Printers still have ink

macro guy me:

we print fuel to keep society from collapsing during covid and flood the engine a bit, result is inflation
we reclaim liquidity from the market by creating a bunch of 'tariffs' which immediately get passed to the consumer, creating a second order of magnitude synthetic inflation event
dollar collapses, which is the third order event

current/future looking concerns;

AI creates a really significant layoff event in the exact segment of the economy responsible for paying the highest individual share of income tax
robotics is about to come for the jobs below the tech sector
consumer spending pancakes because no one can afford anything
ad based jobs vanish
management jobs vanish because theres no one to manage
non-essential tech companies vanish or downgrade to irrelevance

like whats the prognosis there? spy 260, palantir is the new berkshire, private prison etfs?

This is so damn wild. I have so much stuff I want to look into and I can’t catch up.

Half the white collar staff I heard. I might have that wrong

We aren’t talking about practice, we talkin about Intel. You hear similar plans everywhere.

[Daly]

I used to think we would never see UBI in our lives. It was actually here at PFA a few years back where I considered the possibility when we talked about technology taking out fast food workers.

I am part of the leadership team at my work and the executives are all in on AI and how many jobs we can cut. This isnt a we will cut for a year until the economy gets better sort of thing. This is a permanent loss of millions jobs for middle to upper middle class america.

Going to be great for ownership class. Be great for chip makers and other tech companies. Be horrible for most others. If this goes full cycle there will be a call for UBI and to tax the corporations like you have not seen before.

[sonatine]

macro guy me:

we print fuel to keep society from collapsing during covid and flood the engine a bit, result is inflation
we reclaim liquidity from the market by creating a bunch of 'tariffs' which immediately get passed to the consumer, creating a second order of magnitude synthetic inflation event
dollar collapses, which is the third order event

current/future looking concerns;

AI creates a really significant layoff event in the exact segment of the economy responsible for paying the highest individual share of income tax
robotics is about to come for the jobs below the tech sector
consumer spending pancakes because no one can afford anything
ad based jobs vanish
management jobs vanish because theres no one to manage
non-essential tech companies vanish or downgrade to irrelevance

like whats the prognosis there? spy 260, palantir is the new berkshire, private prison etfs?

This is so damn wild. I have so much stuff I want to look into and I can’t catch up.

Half the white collar staff I heard. I might have that wrong

We aren’t talking about practice, we talkin about Intel. You hear similar plans everywhere.

its really not a drill. i was in the trenches for 1997, 2000, 2007, 2020, 2022.


this is nothing like any of those. those were like, constriction events where there was something like natural cycle behind the staffing changes. everyone knew that once the bottom hit, VC would start pouring back in and everyone would be doing the confidence game, where you got more VC by hiring more staff which increased brand confidence and eventually you ended up with tens of millions of RSUs in a tax sheltered roth, like that was the way of things.


this is soooo not that. ask your friendly neighborhood LLM what the economic impact of 2% of the american workforce being unemployed would be and buckle up.

and thats just the AI impact. robotics is going to be even worse.

there is 1 (one) golden path through all this that i can see and it involves UBI. without that, its mad max time.

[sonatine]

also theres this to consider but still

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