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Thread: ***Official*** MLB 2025 Thread

  1. #341
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Many people are saying that guy intentionally jumped.

    I have watched it over 10 times and I think they might be correct.
    Right when it happened it came across X and I kept playing it. My girlfriend kept saying how did it happen? It does look weird. I even googled it to make sure I wasn’t falling for some prank and got a quote from Post Gazette. If it hadn’t happened right at the game winning hit, I’m 100% on suicide. I haven’t caught an age ever. It’s like he had a pilots ejection seat. just extraordinarily drunk is probably the answer.

  2. #342
    All Sorts of Sports gut's Avatar
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    Druff, the reliever you guys just bought from the Cardinals has a fun story:

    Loutos, 26, has had a somewhat unusual trajectory to the big leagues, as explored in this profile from Goold last year. Due to his computer science background, the Cards hired him to develop an app to help minor leaguers use data, and let him pitch as well. “I know what I need to do to improve. I know what I could do,” Loutos said. “But I also know from their shoes what they see: ‘OK, let him play for a while. See what happens. Worst-case scenario, we maybe offer him a job in the front office. Best-case scenario, maybe he’s in the big leagues someday.’”
    Its like a Friedman wet dream.

    From the Goold article, which is paywalled:

    Loutos worked on the project through the 2021-22 offseason, while establishing himself as a prospect in 2022 and into January 2023.

    He got two checks each payday that summer.

    “I got a lot more to code than I did to play, which is funny,” he said.

     
    Comments
      
      Sanlmar: Fuck, I’m gonna love this. Thanks
      
      BCR: This is one Dodger I’ll be cheering to succeed. Or fail spectacularly. Either is entertaining.
      
      Dan Druff: very interesting

  3. #343
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    @gut

    Great article

    Maybe Loutos is the fulfillment of Friedman’s promise to address the pitching problem. Maybe Loutos replaces Mark Prior some day soon. Perhaps Dodgers use Loutos’ experience developing Chirp and integrate his lessons into a Dodger project.


  4. #344
    All Sorts of Sports gut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    @gut

    Great article

    Maybe Loutos is the fulfillment of Friedman’s promise to address the pitching problem. Maybe Loutos replaces Mark Prior some day soon. Perhaps Dodgers use Loutos’ experience developing Chirp and integrate his lessons into a Dodger project.

    Maybe the Dodger app will be called "Bark", named for their elbows and shoulders.

  5. #345
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Here's a free article about Loutos: https://dodgersway.com/newly-acquire...dodgers-loutos

    He did pitch in college ball, so this wasn't just some random computer nerd who developed an app for a team and said, "Hey let me pitch!"

    I can tell you as a former member of the computer science world, it's a very small cross section between CS students and great (or even good) athletes. I was about an exactly average athlete when I was young, but among the computer guys at my college, I would have crushed.

    Anyway he does have a career 0.00 ERA in MLB (albeit in 2 1/3 innings), so maybe there's hope.

  6. #346
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    Bubba Chandler is destroying AAA. They might promote him in the next week to Pittsburgh.

    The sad thing for Pittsburgh is that even with Skenes and Chandler (provided the latter is successful), they still have that terrible offense.

    There are several teams which are struggling huge with the bat this year. I already mentioned Colorado and Toronto, but there's also Texas, KC, Anaheim, and Pittsburgh.

    Pittsburgh's lineup is so bad that it's hard to picture them hitting well, even best case. Their "big" offseason offensive acquisition was Spencer Horwitz, who has yet to play a game.

  7. #347
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Here's a free article about Loutos: https://dodgersway.com/newly-acquire...dodgers-loutos

    He did pitch in college ball, so this wasn't just some random computer nerd who developed an app for a team and said, "Hey let me pitch!"

    I can tell you as a former member of the computer science world, it's a very small cross section between CS students and great (or even good) athletes. I was about an exactly average athlete when I was young, but among the computer guys at my college, I would have crushed.

    Anyway he does have a career 0.00 ERA in MLB (albeit in 2 1/3 innings), so maybe there's hope.
    If Ben is trending towards your stature, it’s never too late to get him into this year long program and you might have the next Dodgers/CS star. I always found it a fascinating pitch as a catcher. My buddy could throw it where I missed a third of them and had to smother them to prevent a passed ball. I couldn’t throw it ever despite trying. It’s right up the road from you.

    https://www.mlb.com/news/featured/kn...-in-california

  8. #348
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    I have your boy Larnach hitting a HR tonight gut. I had a boost that took him up to +900. Leading off, Fenway, worth a shot.

     
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      gut: OR State guy also. Double my guy. GL!

  9. #349
    All Sorts of Sports gut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    I have your boy Larnach hitting a HR tonight gut. I had a boost that took him up to +900. Leading off, Fenway, worth a shot.

    Well, another Ryan start wasted. And no +900 hit.

  10. #350
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    Quote Originally Posted by gut View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    I have your boy Larnach hitting a HR tonight gut. I had a boost that took him up to +900. Leading off, Fenway, worth a shot.

    Well, another Ryan start wasted. And no +900 hit.
    Yeah, Twins are feast or famine on runs. You’re only -1 run differential and 7 games under. Tribe bullpen blew game. I hit a 3 teamer chalk parlay of Yankees, Tigers, Giants, so pretty good night despite no homer.

    I tell you what, the Tigers look legit. Man have they beat the shit out of Angels bad bullpen the last 2 games. The other 2 games were done or pretty much done with Giants and I had a sweat with Tigers and then an 8 run top of the 9th later it was a laugher. But they have been good in general. They could run away with the division.

  11. #351
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    For those not reading the Wagering thread, keep an eye on the White Sox.

    They had 7 runs tonight, pushed around Framber Valdez and various Astros relievers, and have scored 38 runs over the last 7 games.

    If they're putting out a decent pitcher, especially at home, you might want to take them, as I successfully did tonight.

     
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      BCR: Yeah I saw that. Nice hit. I had them a few weeks ago. I like taking them when Smith pitches for first 5. Brave fading Frambar, but you nailed it

  12. #352
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Speaking of home teams, so far the home-road splits are pretty stark across MLB.

    The following teams have losing home records: Rays, White Sox, Angels, A's, Rockies, Marlins, Pirates

    The following teams have winning road records: Giants, Dbacks, Reds, Cubs, Mets, A's, Mariners

    Dodgers, Rays, and Yankees are .500 on the road. Arizona is .500 at home.

    That means 22 teams are winning at home, and only 7 are winning on the road. 20 teams have losing road records.

    But it goes further.

    16 teams are 4 or more over .500 at home! Given that most teams have played 16-18 home games, that's a lot. Four teams are 10 games over .500 at home.


    Home dogs and home small favorites might be of value for now.

  13. #353
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    The following teams have winning road records: Giants, Dbacks, Reds, Cubs, Mets, A's, Mariners
    On the 6th day god invented wRC+

    Name:  IMG_3110.jpeg
Views: 62
Size:  251.0 KB

    The Mariners (road) and Cubs (road) were simultaneously 10-0 against their opponents at the same moment in time this evening.

    wRC+ provided some math for those who were playing the DK contest today. Some people gonna get some 5 figure free bets this morning

    That said, baseball is so damn putrid this year. No words

  14. #354
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    Jose back in the lineup and he has a flare for the dramatic whenever he’s been out. This Francis kid has given 9 HRs in last 18 IP.

    Bibbe gives up a lot of homers too, but feel like he’s due for a gem.

    Tribe -1.5 +163
    Jose HR +385

  15. #355
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    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    Jose back in the lineup and he has a flare for the dramatic whenever he’s been out. This Francis kid has given 9 HRs in last 18 IP.

    Bibbe gives up a lot of homers too, but feel like he’s due for a gem.

    Tribe -1.5 +163
    Jose HR +385
    Cashed out of this at equivalent to +115 win. Don’t trust Clase. Fairly large bet with no room for error

    Hedging would have been smarter but didn’t have time

  16. #356
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    For those not reading the Wagering thread, keep an eye on the White Sox.

    They had 7 runs tonight, pushed around Framber Valdez and various Astros relievers, and have scored 38 runs over the last 7 games.

    If they're putting out a decent pitcher, especially at home, you might want to take them, as I successfully did tonight.
    That kid Smith is throwing today against Ragans.

    +180 for first 5. The oniy team that’s been able to touch him all year is the Red Sox twice for 3 and 2 runs off him. He’s largely blanked everyone else. Ragans is good also, so it’s a coinflip, but one paying +180. I’m on it

  17. #357
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Random musings

    Crochet pitched for the Sawks yesterday and allowed 1 first inning HR. That was all after his 5 innings. 6K’s and 2 walks vs Minny

    Bullpen lost it for them

    What was notable and a tad frustrating to this bettor was watching him deliberately reduce his velocity. The Red Sox at one point last year had even more money on IL than the dodgers. Unlike the Dodgers they have taken measures to preserve their arms. Fewer fastballs is their brand now. Really interesting.

    I think I see a similar philosophy with Cubs but haven’t dug in.

    Casperius vs Alcantara tonight is gonna be fun. Casper won’t go long. I have Dodgers F3 RL and that is a first for me ever. Sprinkled F5 -0.5 +100 and F5 -1.5 +135 for lulz too.

    Dodgers F5 TT o2.5 was mildly attractive too.

    I have no idea what the Dodgers are doing with pitching but they don’t either.

  18. #358
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Random musings

    Crochet pitched for the Sawks yesterday and allowed 1 first inning HR. That was all after his 5 innings. 6K’s and 2 walks vs Minny

    Bullpen lost it for them

    What was notable and a tad frustrating to this bettor was watching him deliberately reduce his velocity. The Red Sox at one point last year had even more money on IL than the dodgers. Unlike the Dodgers they have taken measures to preserve their arms. Fewer fastballs is their brand now. Really interesting.

    I think I see a similar philosophy with Cubs but haven’t dug in.

    Casperius vs Alcantara tonight is gonna be fun. Casper won’t go long. I have Dodgers F3 RL and that is a first for me ever. Sprinkled F5 -0.5 +100 and F5 -1.5 +135 for lulz too.

    Dodgers F5 TT o2.5 was mildly attractive too.

    I have no idea what the Dodgers are doing with pitching but they don’t either.
    I have Jack Dreyer must start under my listed pitchers. So if that is relevant to your bet, better double check.

    Didn’t the Dodgers just hammer Sandy like a week ago?

  19. #359
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Random musings

    Crochet pitched for the Sawks yesterday and allowed 1 first inning HR. That was all after his 5 innings. 6K’s and 2 walks vs Minny

    Bullpen lost it for them

    What was notable and a tad frustrating to this bettor was watching him deliberately reduce his velocity. The Red Sox at one point last year had even more money on IL than the dodgers. Unlike the Dodgers they have taken measures to preserve their arms. Fewer fastballs is their brand now. Really interesting.

    I think I see a similar philosophy with Cubs but haven’t dug in.

    Casperius vs Alcantara tonight is gonna be fun. Casper won’t go long. I have Dodgers F3 RL and that is a first for me ever. Sprinkled F5 -0.5 +100 and F5 -1.5 +135 for lulz too.

    Dodgers F5 TT o2.5 was mildly attractive too.

    I have no idea what the Dodgers are doing with pitching but they don’t either.
    I have Jack Dreyer must start under my listed pitchers. So if that is relevant to your bet, better double check.

    Didn’t the Dodgers just hammer Sandy like a week ago?
    Yeah, I got trick fucked with late insertion of Dreyer. What is so suboptimal is BOTH teams repeating April 29th matchups exactly. Dreyer and Alcantra. Sad ass Dodgers and Miami have few options.

    Dave Roberts will leave Dreyer in until he gives it up so a BTTS F5 or even F3 is sexy. Miami TT is privileged information for only the betting elite and those who have data.

    I’m not a YRFI/NRFI guy but both pitchers caughed up last outing. Maybe I’ll pleasure myself, lol

     
    Comments
      
      BCR: Ok. Just didn’t want you to sweat bet only for it to void

  20. #360
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Casperius vs Alcantara tonight is gonna be fun. Casper won’t go long. I have Dodgers F3 RL ✅ and that is a first for me ever. Sprinkled F5 -0.5 +100 ✅ and F5 -1.5 +135 ✅for lulz too.

    Dodgers F5 TT o2.5 ✅ was mildly attractive too.
    @BCR

    Winning an F3 run line has the potential to create a really bad habit.

    DK really doesn’t allow me to list pitchers in derivative markets. I was married to those positions (happily). I feel very comfortable with my Dodgers knowledge so typically my risk is negligible.

    The Dreyer news caused bleeding as I took F5 BTTS 2+ ❌. I expected Dave Roberts to run Dreyer til he failed. However, Roberts proved disciplined holding Dreyer to just one inning. I was wrong and it cost me some profit

    Casper looked good. We will see how teams adjust to this new face.

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