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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #41121
    Platinum 1dollarboxcar's Avatar
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    @Kalam said
    Hard to say sharps were dumb. Variance happens.
    yeah probably a bad choice of words on my part and i was actually trying to be a little bit funny and it didn't come across that way and to be honest i was tooting my horn a little bit there... and here is why, Grizzlies are the highest scoring team in the NBA when Ja Marant plays... however when he doesn't play the Grizzlies go under like 65% of the time, also when the Suns are at home and are the favorite their games go under like 63% of the time... you touched on Booker being rusty... was to be expected as he had missed like the last 6 games in a row and was somewhat factored in... then the injury report where as i mentioned both teams had non starters but are key role players coming off the bench were not going to play so when the O/U was 236.5 , i thought that was too high for the reasons stated above... so when the number crept higher closer to game time... i was like WTF..?? aren't these so called sharps and books looking at the same thing i am... and makes me doubt myself and feel like a dummy (which i probably really actually am lol ) i spent a good while researching that game cause the O/U number caught my eye which again i thought was too high... and then the number creeps higher (the opposite way i thought it would) and just made me wonder what i had missed, same thing was happening to me this year in MLB on some O/U's and i did pretty well which other people will account for here... and i finally told myself just trust the work i have put in and whatever happens...happens. the final total score 229 was about what i had it pegged at but boy did Memphis come out and score that first half (69 points) especially the 1st quarter (36 points) so reality pretty much came back in the 2nd half and levelled everything back to the norms... if there is such a thing...lol...

  2. #41122
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Been a really good last few days, but I don't have a clue what to do with this game tonight?

    Georgia isn't particularly good. Their defense is bad, for a GA team, but I am not sure ND has the downfield threats to exploit it. And with a backup QB, can they outscore them? Would be easy over if they had their normal QB, but I can't find an angle with this game. Neither can the books. Someone say something smart and maybe I will get a lightbulb moment.

    Buckeyes did as expected and got me my money back from that idiotic first game against Oregon when guys were running wide open all over the field and Day decided he wanted to establish the run like a retard when he has 3 first round WR's and a true freshman who might go first overall if eligible. Still pissed about that game.

  3. #41123
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    I just looked at the ND GA game. I am so removed from CFB wagering that I had to ask why I couldn’t bet props on DK. Mass prohibits betting on Mass colleges and prohibits college player props. I’m asking in January which proves my virginity

    Rule seems weird to me now that college players get paid. Protecting their innocence in 2025? Hell, Mass high school kids can take NIL. Support your local high school kids

    I woulda snap bet the ND QB under rush/pass

    I took the DK 33% Boost on anything +100 or better and bet (alt) Total under 44 for +134. Just a value bet.

    Two good defenses. GA backup. ND favors the run. When in doubt bet under too

  4. #41124
    Platinum JeffDime's Avatar
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    Really tough time handicapping the Sentry. So I decided to just take a punt on a long shot. Little over an hour until it goes off.

    Max Greyserman 45-1.

    You can get about 30-1 w/o X, JT & Morikawa.

    Not the best draw for FRL but put a few bucks on him at 40-1.

  5. #41125
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    I just looked at the ND GA game. I am so removed from CFB wagering that I had to ask why I couldn’t bet props on DK. Mass prohibits betting on Mass colleges and prohibits college player props. I’m asking in January which proves my virginity

    Rule seems weird to me now that college players get paid. Protecting their innocence in 2025? Hell, Mass high school kids can take NIL. Support your local high school kids

    I woulda snap bet the ND QB under rush/pass

    I took the DK 33% Boost on anything +100 or better and bet (alt) Total under 44 for +134. Just a value bet.

    Two good defenses. GA backup. ND favors the run. When in doubt bet under too

    I just realized it’s the early game. Duke/Ole Miss play late. Reminds me of the time I saw Bon Jovi and Night Ranger open up for Donnie Iris when I was in 8th or 9th grade. Druff knows his Donnie Iris. Was selling real estate by me still a few years ago.

     
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      Sanlmar: ND is an opening act. Funny

  6. #41126
    Bronze pagelpoker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by rollinx420 View Post
    daly--

    whats the best bet on the bowl game tomorrow? (Monday)
    Sorry just saw this.

    I think you can make a educated guess that if you bet Zona St and ND you will have a better chance to go 2-0 vs 0-2

    Under 45.5 Georgia/ND looks good
    This aged well

     
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      Daly: Broken clock was right three times a day
    PFA NFL Handicapping Champion

  7. #41127
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    I just looked at the ND GA game. I am so removed from CFB wagering that I had to ask why I couldn’t bet props on DK. Mass prohibits betting on Mass colleges and prohibits college player props. I’m asking in January which proves my virginity

    Rule seems weird to me now that college players get paid. Protecting their innocence in 2025? Hell, Mass high school kids can take NIL. Support your local high school kids

    I woulda snap bet the ND QB under rush/pass

    I took the DK 33% Boost on anything +100 or better and bet (alt) Total under 44 for +134.✅ Just a value bet.

    Two good defenses. GA backup. ND favors the run. When in doubt bet under too
    4-0 recent run in football.

    Papa John’s I’m comin with cash this time

    Minutes watched prolly under 4 total

     
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      pagelpoker:

  8. #41128
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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  9. #41129
    Platinum 1dollarboxcar's Avatar
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    NBA, picking on Memphis again cause the numbers say so with Ja Marant still out and still a lot of injuries for Memphis, however a lot of these injuries now say game time decisions for Memphis and even if the better players do play, i still don't see how this game gets close to 242 on the O/U.... MEM @ SAC under 242...

  10. #41130
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    I’ll risk my crown for what’s behind door number 2

    Parlay +102

    MTL Canadiens over 1.5 goals (alt)

    Mayo Bowl SGP
    Minnesota ML
    Total over 38.5 (alt)

    Mayo Bowl is so trashy and ludicrous I feel my football skills are in tune. This is a PFA exclusive pick

  11. #41131
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    I just looked at the ND GA game. I am so removed from CFB wagering that I had to ask why I couldn’t bet props on DK. Mass prohibits betting on Mass colleges and prohibits college player props. I’m asking in January which proves my virginity

    Rule seems weird to me now that college players get paid. Protecting their innocence in 2025? Hell, Mass high school kids can take NIL. Support your local high school kids

    I woulda snap bet the ND QB under rush/pass

    I took the DK 33% Boost on anything +100 or better and bet (alt) Total under 44 for +134. Just a value bet.

    Two good defenses. GA backup. ND favors the run. When in doubt bet under too

    I just realized it’s the early game. Duke/Ole Miss play late. Reminds me of the time I saw Bon Jovi and Night Ranger open up for Donnie Iris when I was in 8th or 9th grade. Druff knows his Donnie Iris. Was selling real estate by me still a few years ago.
    LOL Donnie Iris

    Good news is that you can still see him play live in Ohio: https://www.facebook.com/donnieiris/

    \

  12. #41132
    Platinum 1dollarboxcar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1dollarboxcar View Post
    NBA, picking on Memphis again cause the numbers say so with Ja Marant still out and still a lot of injuries for Memphis, however a lot of these injuries now say game time decisions for Memphis and even if the better players do play, i still don't see how this game gets close to 242 on the O/U.... MEM @ SAC under 242...
    well that was a major fail by halftime x 2... i guess it wasn't close to the 242 number OMG...
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  13. #41133
    Silver DrPeters's Avatar
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    steelers +2.5

  14. #41134
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post
    Really tough time handicapping the Sentry. So I decided to just take a punt on a long shot. Little over an hour until it goes off.

    Max Greyserman 45-1.

    You can get about 30-1 w/o X, JT & Morikawa.

    Not the best draw for FRL but put a few bucks on him at 40-1.
    Sucks to see him play so well but not going to win. Ultimately just will fuck up his price for next week. That’s golf betting. Prob will be 4th or 5th favorite next week.

  15. #41135
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    Damn. I had Cinci -2.5. Such a sick runout to lose by the hook. Punt hits a blockers foot and then 54 yard FG. Brutal, brutal, brutal.

     
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      Tellafriend:

  16. #41136
    Diamond Tellafriend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Damn. I had Cinci -2.5. Such a sick runout to lose by the hook. Punt hits a blockers foot and then 54 yard FG. Brutal, brutal, brutal.


    https://twitter.com/blezbets/status/1875759834949415268

     
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      Jayjami: That’s why they call it gambling.

  17. #41137
    Silver DrPeters's Avatar
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    vikings +3

  18. #41138
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    I've run so bad lately that even Kalam's bets are getting lucky when opposing mine.

    This has been a great season for the ploppy in NFL, whereas the 22-23 season was great for the sharp. Last season was more typical.

    I'll post some final regular season plays shortly.

  19. #41139
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Never mind.

    Was going to post a play in the Dolphins game, but I am just not feeling it.

    GL everyone

  20. #41140
    Plutonium lol wow's Avatar
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    hear me out packers under lions over chiefs over

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