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These are the early voting/no excuse absentee voting returns in PA through October 30th. They haven't changed much since.

Math.

There have been roughly 450k less ballots returned than in 2020 and roughly 100k more ballots returned by registered Republicans than in 2020. Using this data, in 2020 Trump made up 850k votes out of the 930k he started off down on Election Day. If you assumed that every single one of the 450k missing early voters this year voted for Kamala on Election Day along with their roughly 400k vote edge from this data, that puts them at basically a tie. Obviously those are ridiculous assumptions, but through basic math and extrapolation one can see a 1.5 point win for Trump in the keystone state without even factoring in that he's not running against a white guy with Pennsylvania roots this time.


Here is a breakdown of the final totals in 2020.

Certainly. Here are the estimated numbers for early voting (mail-in ballots) by party affiliation in Pennsylvania for the 2020 presidential election:

### Mail-In Ballots by Party in Pennsylvania (2020)

According to the Pennsylvania Department of State, the breakdown for requested and returned mail-in ballots was roughly as follows:

- **Democratic Party**:
- **Mail Ballots Requested**: Approximately 1.98 million
- **Mail Ballots Returned**: About 1.7 million

- **Republican Party**:
- **Mail Ballots Requested**: Approximately 790,000
- **Mail Ballots Returned**: Around 625,000

- **Other/Unaffiliated Voters**:
- **Mail Ballots Requested**: Approximately 280,000
- **Mail Ballots Returned**: About 200,000

### Summary of Returned Mail-In Ballots
Out of the approximately **2.6 million mail-in ballots returned**:

- **Democrats**: Around 1.7 million (about 66-70% of total mail-in ballots returned)
- **Republicans**: Around 625,000 (about 24-25% of total mail-in ballots returned)
- **Independents/Other**: Around 200,000 (about 7-8% of total mail-in ballots returned)

### In-Person Voting
The in-person voting on Election Day skewed heavily Republican, though exact numbers are not broken down as granularly as mail-in ballots. The split led to an initial lead for Democrats in Pennsylvania as mail ballots were counted first, with Republicans making gains as in-person votes were tabulated later.

This difference created a notable "red mirage" and "blue shift" effect in the results as the counting process continued.