It was 90:10 Clinton the day of election. Bettors are wrong all the time. The best indicator really is where the candidates are going, I made a post the weekend before the 2016 election saying it was suspicious that Clinton was in PA with Jay Z and Trump was basically camping out in MI. I got the requisite response "those are deep blue states". Now in 2024 Trump making a visit to New Mexico, Bill Clinton and Biden spending time in NH, and the Governor of VA going to Court to get 1,600 non citizens off the voter rolls is revealing. Probably not going to win those states, but everyone obsesses about the rust belt. However if Trump sweeps the sun belt and surprises with NH, he wins the election without MI, WI, PA. There is always a surprise state in these things. With that said, I still think its not going to be close in one direction or the other. Someone is likely going to be north of 300 EVs. One thing you gotta give Trump, he turned the Republican party of the middle class, and the Dems into the party of the elite and foreign intervention. How times have changed since I was a kid.Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Temper this by taking a moment to remember the savagery that occurred in the betting markets the night of the election 2016.
For those who were there that night this recollection will temper any hubris that threatens to overcome you. The betting markets are not necessarily truth.
It was like the 9/11 of political wagering. We all recall where we were
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