*** OFFICIAL *** MLB 2024 Thread

[Dan Druff]

Here are the futures totals.

Most years I don't bother with this shit, because I hate futures bets. Don't have the patience.

But this year I might fire some. Here are my recommendations:

Dodgers over 103.5 - They won 100 last year despite a starting pitching staff which was one of their worst in decades. Seriously, look it up. All they've done since then has been add Shoehei Ohtani, Yoshi Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Teoscar Hernandez. And all of last year's major contributors will be back, aside from Kershaw who will come in mid-year.

Atlanta over 101.5 - Another ploppy pick, but it's hard to see the Braves not beating this mark. The top 5 in their lineup are all in the top 22 ranked fantasy hitters in baseball, including #1 Acuna. Their #6 hitter is Michael Harris. Spencer Strider and Max Fried are back, and both healthy. They even picked up Chris Sale. Aside from the Dodgers, who in the NL is going to be a problem for them in the regular season? The only team in their division projected over .500 is the Phillies.

St. Louis under 85.5 - This is my favorite bet. How exactly have the 71-win Cardinals improved? By signing a gaggle of ancient starting pitchers? Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are not the offensive forces they once were. They're starting the season without Lars Nootbaar and Tommy Edman. The bullpen isn't particularly good, and the team is expected to be slow on the basepaths in an era where SB are way up. This is not going to be a winning team.

Cubs over 83.5 - This is a team which was sometimes great and sometimes terrible last year. But I think they should do better than 83 wins. The lineup is fairly solid, and the starting pitching may be better than you think. Justin Steele looks great, Shota Imanaga will probably be solid, and you might get some surprising performances out of Jordan Wicks and Hayden Wesneski. It also helps that they're in a division without any dominant team, so they'll be playing fewer games against the Dodgers and Braves.

Reds over 82.5 - My second favorite bet. The Reds have a pretty exciting lineup of youngsters, between TJ Friedl, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McClain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Spencer Steer. They can afford to wait out the suspension of Noelvi Marte. The starting pitching will hold them back, as only Hunter Greene really has a lot of talent, but their lineup should be good enough to compete for the division. I actually think they win the NL Central.

Diamondbacks over 83.5 - The lineup is decent, and the starting pitching featuring Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelley, Eduardo Rodriguez, and the possible breaking out Brandon Pfaadt should make them much better than a .500-ish club. They are riding the momentum from last year's exciting postseason. While they won't challenge the Dodgers for the NL West title, they should pull up into second, and probably finish in the high 80s.

Angels under 72.5 - So, aside from the oft-injured Trout, what's left? Anthony Rendon, who has admitted he's essentially given up? Taylor Ward? Brandon Drury? Only one member of the lineup is projected to steal more than 8 bases, nobody is projected to hit over .264, and nobody except Trout is projected to hit over 25 HR. But the real story is the starting pitching. I don't see Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning, Patrick Sandoval, Tyler Anderson, and Chase Silseth putting up big numbers. Plus they're in a division with the Astros, Rangers, and Mariners. I project something like 69 wins for this squad.

Taking a look at the win props I suggested but didn't bet:

Dodgers o103.5 - Lost. Can't finish better than 99.

Atlanta o101.5 - Lost badly. To be fair, I didn't expect Strider and Acuna to be out like this.

St. Louis u85.5 - Won. Can't finish better than 85. They're 79-77, but honestly they've played worse than that. This team sucks and the fans are furious.

Chicago o83.5 - Still open, likely loss. Disappointing team, but still could go 4-1 and finish with 84 wins. Bad call on Wicks and Wesneski contributing.

Reds o82.5 - Lost. Another disappointing team, resulting in manager being canned. Best they can do is finish 81-81.

Dbacks o83.5 - Won. I predicted their win total will end up "somewhere in the high 80s", and they're currently 87-70, with 5 to play. Good call!

Angels u72.5 - Won. Best possible win total is 69, currently at 63.

So that's 3-3, plus one up in the air which is more likely to lose. I went 1-1 in the bets I marked "favorite" (St. Louis and Cincy).

This is why I leave the props to Daly.

[Dan Druff]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1838804583386083361


Very lucky for the Padres. Suarez didn't have it, and gave up his 4th hard contact in a row with 2 on, no out in a 4-2 game. With Ohtani up next.

[Sheesfaced]

This San Diego series unfortunately reminds me of 1996.

Dodgers came into the final series with the Padres up 2 games on them. This meant that SD had to win all 3 in order to win the division.

The Padres proceeded to win 5-2, 4-2, and 2-0. Dodgers became the wildcard after leading most of the season.

Dodgers got swept by the Braves, Padres got swept by the Cardinals.

Yankees won the World Series that year over the Braves, after beating the Orioles.


This postseason will also have the Dodgers, Padres, Orioles, and Yankees. Probably not the Braves. Definitely not the Cardinals. But the Padres could very well end up the NL West champs, which would be sad.

Braves current ESPN playoff odds are 69.2%.

If they split one of next two with Mets they’ll hold tiebreakers over both Mets and Dbacks. And they’ve absolutely owned the Mets in Atlanta for a while now. That said they’re still so beat up. You keep talking about Strider and Acuña but they’ve also lost Riley for the year, Minter for the year, and just got back Albies after he was out two months and Harris also missed two months as well. They had plenty other significant injuries too.

Anyways, something to watch is the weather as Atlanta is about to get hit by hurricane Hellene. It won’t be a hurricane by the time it gets here but the forecast is calling for like 10+ inches of rain over the next 3 days.

It’s very possible that the Braves and Mets have to play a double header on Monday which is supposed to be the off day before the wildcard round. Whichever one (or both) of them make the playoffs that would put them at a huge disadvantage going into the wildcard round.

Not sure how to be able to profit off of that information right now but food for thought.

[Sanlmar]

This San Diego series unfortunately reminds me of 1996.

Dodgers came into the final series with the Padres up 2 games on them. This meant that SD had to win all 3 in order to win the division.

The Padres proceeded to win 5-2, 4-2, and 2-0. Dodgers became the wildcard after leading most of the season.

Dodgers got swept by the Braves, Padres got swept by the Cardinals.

Yankees won the World Series that year over the Braves, after beating the Orioles.


This postseason will also have the Dodgers, Padres, Orioles, and Yankees. Probably not the Braves. Definitely not the Cardinals. But the Padres could very well end up the NL West champs, which would be sad.

Braves current ESPN playoff odds are 69.2%.

If they split one of next two with Mets they’ll hold tiebreakers over both Mets and Dbacks. And they’ve absolutely owned the Mets in Atlanta for a while now. That said they’re still so beat up. You keep talking about Strider and Acuña but they’ve also lost Riley for the year, Minter for the year, and just got back Albies after he was out two months and Harris also missed two months as well. They had plenty other significant injuries too.

Anyways, something to watch is the weather as Atlanta is about to get hit by hurricane Hellene. It won’t be a hurricane by the time it gets here but the forecast is calling for like 10+ inches of rain over the next 3 days.

It’s very possible that the Braves and Mets have to play a double header on Monday which is supposed to be the off day before the wildcard round. Whichever one (or both) of them make the playoffs that would put them at a huge disadvantage going into the wildcard round.

Not sure how to be able to profit off of that information right now but food for thought.

It’s a shame the weather might affect the 2024 Skubal Sale Ragans strikeout race.

DBacks in free fall. Maybe the next series for Dodgers and Padres won’t be as stark a contrast as we thought a week ago

I couldn’t bet Flaherty against the hung over Padres. Flaherty hasn’t looked too swell recently. I have the PADRES (I shouldn’t have to indicate which team at this point) series using my HELOC and I put something on Padres ML tonight. Might be landscaping for tgull soon.

Druff has taken to wearing turtlenecks according to his social media

[Sanlmar]

It’s a game of survivor on the national league side

[simpdog]

It’s a game of survivor on the national league side

Mets Braves being postponed today is also intriguing.

And does the Hurricane cause some delays or games being moved?

[Ryback_feed_me_more]

This San Diego series unfortunately reminds me of 1996.

Dodgers came into the final series with the Padres up 2 games on them. This meant that SD had to win all 3 in order to win the division.

The Padres proceeded to win 5-2, 4-2, and 2-0. Dodgers became the wildcard after leading most of the season.

Dodgers got swept by the Braves, Padres got swept by the Cardinals.

Yankees won the World Series that year over the Braves, after beating the Orioles.


This postseason will also have the Dodgers, Padres, Orioles, and Yankees. Probably not the Braves. Definitely not the Cardinals. But the Padres could very well end up the NL West champs, which would be sad.

Braves current ESPN playoff odds are 69.2%.

If they split one of next two with Mets they’ll hold tiebreakers over both Mets and Dbacks. And they’ve absolutely owned the Mets in Atlanta for a while now. That said they’re still so beat up. You keep talking about Strider and Acuña but they’ve also lost Riley for the year, Minter for the year, and just got back Albies after he was out two months and Harris also missed two months as well. They had plenty other significant injuries too.

Anyways, something to watch is the weather as Atlanta is about to get hit by hurricane Hellene. It won’t be a hurricane by the time it gets here but the forecast is calling for like 10+ inches of rain over the next 3 days.

It’s very possible that the Braves and Mets have to play a double header on Monday which is supposed to be the off day before the wildcard round. Whichever one (or both) of them make the playoffs that would put them at a huge disadvantage going into the wildcard round.

Not sure how to be able to profit off of that information right now but food for thought.

Doubleheader now official for Monday. Dbacks have to have 1.5G lead or they could be waiting rooting for the Mets Monday good news is they’d be ok going back to Milwaukee after last weeks ass kicking they delivered plus they already beat them last season.

[The Boz]

Damn Druff your Dodgers suck for a team trying to secure the best record in baseball.

[Sanlmar]

Damn Druff your Dodgers suck for a team trying to secure the best record in baseball.

Tremendous game

Ohtani up so dark times for the good guys

Ohtani was a +280 stolen base bet booster on BOL, Druff

[Dan Druff]

Dodgers win NL West, taking 2 out of 3 from San Diego. They were down 2-0 in the 7th before blowing 'em out.

Ohtani has reached 400 total bases in a season, the first player to do that since the roid year of 01.

[Sanlmar]

Freeman ankle surgery?

[gut]

What a failure by the Twins. Would be "unbelievable" if not for their recent history

[gut]

Twins cheap ass owners probably would have resigned Gray if the RSN shit wasnt happening. Oh well

[Jayjami]

Dodgers win NL West, taking 2 out of 3 from San Diego. They were down 2-0 in the 7th before blowing 'em out.

Ohtani has reached 400 total bases in a season, the first player to do that since the roid year of 01.

Great night in Blue Heaven. Trip report with pics tomorrow.

[Jayjami]

I’ve been to over 100 games at Dodger Stadium, including many, many playoff games. I’d never been to a game like this. First, 90% of the crowd were in their seats at first pitch. I’ve never seen that, even at a World Series game. The reason is obvious. Shohei is first up, and nobody wants to miss it. Second, absolutely nobody left early, even though they were up 7-2. I know everybody wanted the enjoy the division winning celebration, but that never happens either.

It’s clear that Ohtani is the man and everyone knows it. That’s saying something when you have multiple MVP teammates. And Shohei is loving every minute of it. It’s like: “Wow, this is what it’s like to be on a good team.” And the fans are in a torrid love affair with him. We need a Dodgers-Yankees World Series. Who doesn’t want to see him go toe to toe with Aaron Judge?

3-5, 1 run, 1 rbi. How disappointing.



Mookie had a big hit.



The consummate professional in thought:

[Dan Druff]

Were these actually your seats, or did you walk up and/or zoom in?

Interesting that everyone was there on time and stayed throughout. I agree that's unusual, even for a division clincher. I've seen that for the postseason (for obvious reasons), but never a regular season game.

Are you going to playoff games this year?

I've also probably been to approximately 100 Dodgers games in my lifetime. Maybe 120, actually. This year I went to 5 regular season games, though one was in Oakland. I believe the 5 games was a personal record for me (in the regular season). I have never lived close to the stadium, so it's always been a pain in the ass getting there.

[Dan Druff]

AL is pretty much set, aside from WC positions:

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Injuns
AL West: Trashcans
AL WC 1: Orloles
AL WC 2 or 3: Tigers
AL WC 2 or 3: Royals
AL fail: White Sox (121 losses & counting, despite sweeping the Angels)

NL looks like this:
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Dodgers
NL WC 1: Padres
NL WC 2/3: Mets/Braves/Dbacks


There is a doubleheader with Mets/Braves on Monday, due to the hurricane. This was an added day to the MLB schedule, and all other teams will be done on Sunday.

[SmallyBig]

.
the White Sox have broken a record - they have lost 121 games in one season - the record was previously held by the '62 Mets

from the article:

"Chicago started the year 3-22, and in a recent stretch of home games they went 1-28. They slumped through separate losing streaks of 21 games, 14 games, and 12 games. Over the course of the season, the White Sox have been outscored by more than 300 runs."

the article is referring to the modern era - after 1962 when the MLB went to 162 games

but in 1899 the Cleveland Spiders went 20-134 - even more impressive - fewer games

.
https://archive.ph/m1jqB

.

[Sanlmar]

Skenes on the mound smiling and damn near laughing at the Yankees as he smokes them.

Only Skenes can get away with that and not get his ass kicked.

[Daly]

This is why I leave the props to Daly.

Never anything wrong going .500 when shooting your shot so long as they arent juice heavy plays. Lets the book think they got a shot at your coin.

I never bet it but I loved Red Sox under 81.5. Looked like a L all season long but with 2 too go looks like a winner.