Quote Originally Posted by VaughnP View Post
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1832741724583530881

This is a disaster for Kamala. This is a huge sample size of likely voters by the allegedly best pollster in the country. Despite being an "A+" poll and the highest rated by many, the have consistently underestimated Trump in state and national polling. In 2020 they had Biden winning by 9 in their final poll. Polling errors are overwhelmingly likely to still be in the favor of Trump due to the difficulty of getting the voters that only come out to vote for him to respond to polling and the exact opposite problem for libtardian voters. There is no way their margin of error is more than the 4+ points she would need to have any real chance.
i think 3% is the number 4% is a little rich, I've done a deep dive in the numbers. I am waiting for the debate to make a large bet (for me), 5 figures. I believe Harris will bomb given the format of having to fill up multiple 90 second answers. This is not Hillary Clinton who actually is very smart. This is Kamala Harris who really is a sack of hammers intellectually. But we will see in two days. But I can't see her performing in this format. There was a reason she was universally rejected in 2019 in the primary and in 2022 Biden called her a work in progress.