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Thread: Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

  1. #161
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    I mean what could go wrong at the debate?

  2. #162
    Gold VaughnP's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    I mean what could go wrong at the debate?
    If I were Kamala's handlers I wouldn't allow her to do the debate. Trump only stands to gain from it. He isn't a great debater by any means, but he is elite at seizing on big moments, which Kamala will likely open herself up to. It's hard to envision Trump doing poorly enough for this to swing the election against him in any way.

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    Platinum RichardBrodiesCombover.'s Avatar
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    Name:  firefighters-union-members-wearing-trump-is-a-scab-shirts-v0-rqxyd1x21pld1.jpeg
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    Trump isn't going to win this election. MAGA ends with him

  4. #164
    Diamond Tellafriend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RichardBrodiesCombover. View Post
    Name:  firefighters-union-members-wearing-trump-is-a-scab-shirts-v0-rqxyd1x21pld1.jpeg
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    Trump isn't going to win this election. MAGA ends with him


    is the lady on bottom right a skunk or honeybadger?

  5. #165
    Platinum RichardBrodiesCombover.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by RichardBrodiesCombover. View Post
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    Trump isn't going to win this election. MAGA ends with him


    is the lady on bottom right a skunk or honeybadger?
    Whatever that thing is it's voting and it's not a vote for Trump

  6. #166
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    Quote Originally Posted by RichardBrodiesCombover. View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post



    is the lady on bottom right a skunk or honeybadger?
    Whatever that thing is it's voting and it's not a vote for Trump
    right; and it's why our system is irreparably broken.

  7. #167
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by RichardBrodiesCombover. View Post

    Whatever that thing is it's voting and it's not a vote for Trump
    right; and it's why our system is irreparably broken.

    Should we abolish the electoral college system????

    Please say yes

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    Quote Originally Posted by RichardBrodiesCombover. View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post

    right; and it's why our system is irreparably broken.

    Should we abolish the electoral college system????

    Please say yes

    so rather than slouch towards Gomorrah, you want the nation to sprint? nah.

    but demographics will get you the same result, it is just going to take a little longer. but be of good cheer, it is coming.

  9. #169
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by RichardBrodiesCombover. View Post


    Should we abolish the electoral college system????

    Please say yes

    so rather than slouch towards Gomorrah, you want the nation to sprint? nah.

    but demographics will get you the same result, it is just going to take a little longer. but be of good cheer, it is coming.
    Why can't 1 vote = 1 vote.

  10. #170
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Not good numbers nationally for Harris:

    National: Trump vs. Harris
    Wall Street Journal
    Harris 48, Trump 47
    Harris
    +1
    National: Trump vs. Harris
    Quinnipiac
    Harris 49, Trump 48
    Harris
    +1
    National: Trump vs. Harris
    Rasmussen Reports
    Harris 46, Trump 48
    Trump
    +2

  11. #171
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RichardBrodiesCombover. View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post


    so rather than slouch towards Gomorrah, you want the nation to sprint? nah.

    but demographics will get you the same result, it is just going to take a little longer. but be of good cheer, it is coming.
    Why can't 1 vote = 1 vote.
    You truly are dumber than a bag of shit. The EC exists to give small states = representation to the larger states. It only goes back to the 1780s. Hey retard, go start a constitutional amendment drive of 2/3rds of state legislatures to pass what you want. You are the biggest idiot on this site. And I including Garrett in my opinion who at least has an excuse getting mauled by a truck.

  12. #172
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    The EC exists to give small states = representation to the larger states.

    yeah i think we're done with that.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  13. #173
    Platinum Jayjami's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by RichardBrodiesCombover. View Post

    Why can't 1 vote = 1 vote.
    You truly are dumber than a bag of shit. The EC exists to give small states = representation to the larger states. It only goes back to the 1780s. Hey retard, go start a constitutional amendment drive of 2/3rds of state legislatures to pass what you want. You are the biggest idiot on this site. And I including Garrett in my opinion who at least has an excuse getting mauled by a truck.

    The EC was instituted because people like Thomas Jefferson thought politicians were too scummy to elect a president, and people like Alexander Hamilton thought Americans were too stupid to elect a president. So they compromised.

     
    Comments
      
      The Boz: Hamilton will be proven correct again if this stupid ho is elected.

  14. #174
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    Jay and TGULL - you are both right.

    RBCO - it can, just have to make a lot of changes. how about this one though - we say that only income tax payers in top 2/3 of all payers get a vote on where the cash goes as opposed to letting the freeloaders decide? or you pass some basic aptitude test so you aren't going to be a sheep and give your vote to some church or political committee to vote for you. i could go on and on about how to improve things, but none of it will come to pass. too much water under the bridge to go back now. and besides, like i said, you will end up getting your wish, it will just take a little longer.

  15. #175
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayjami View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post

    You truly are dumber than a bag of shit. The EC exists to give small states = representation to the larger states. It only goes back to the 1780s. Hey retard, go start a constitutional amendment drive of 2/3rds of state legislatures to pass what you want. You are the biggest idiot on this site. And I including Garrett in my opinion who at least has an excuse getting mauled by a truck.

    The EC was instituted because people like Thomas Jefferson thought politicians were too scummy to elect a president, and people like Alexander Hamilton thought Americans were too stupid to elect a president. So they compromised.
    The EC exists because the founders did not want the elections solely decided by NY and PA when there were just a few states. I guess we can go back on forth on their intent, it does not matter. You would need a constitutional amendment to get rid of the EC, which takes 2/3rd of Congress and 3/4th of the states. Yeah good luck with that, sure the Southern states and upper Midwest will just cede power to CA and New York. Tough being the smartest guy on this site. The sad thing is I learned all this in the 10th grade.

  16. #176
    Platinum RichardBrodiesCombover.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by RichardBrodiesCombover. View Post

    Why can't 1 vote = 1 vote.
    You truly are dumber than a bag of shit. The EC exists to give small states = representation to the larger states. It only goes back to the 1780s. Hey retard, go start a constitutional amendment drive of 2/3rds of state legislatures to pass what you want. You are the biggest idiot on this site. And I including Garrett in my opinion who at least has an excuse getting mauled by a truck.

    lol drunk bottomset

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    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RichardBrodiesCombover. View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post

    You truly are dumber than a bag of shit. The EC exists to give small states = representation to the larger states. It only goes back to the 1780s. Hey retard, go start a constitutional amendment drive of 2/3rds of state legislatures to pass what you want. You are the biggest idiot on this site. And I including Garrett in my opinion who at least has an excuse getting mauled by a truck.

    lol drunk bottomset
    Like I said you are dumber than shit. And poor. Sucks being you doesn't it? You are one dumb muther fucker.

  18. #178
    Gold VaughnP's Avatar
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    https://twitter.com/BehizyTweets/status/1830333172120162437

    Don't worry Kamala bros, this isn't one of the most Democrat skewed pollsters showing signs of an epic collapse among Hispanic voters.

  19. #179
    Gold VaughnP's Avatar
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    https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1830373479008387288

    Remember too that Nate Silver's model definitely wasn't partisan/strongly skewed towards Hillary and Biden in 2016 and 2020.


    https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1830304120361693304

    The candidate up by as much as 7 according to some polls is totally campaigning in New Hampshire for fun. Remember she's so "brat" and quirky, so it makes sense.

  20. #180
    Gold VaughnP's Avatar
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    Back to Nate Rust's model, notice that Trump's probability of winning the popular vote have creeped to near 60/40. Nate will hold the line until the very end, but here is your reminder again that of polls which try to be objective and then parsing through the data if made available of established polls that are clearly biased, Trump is remarkably polling slightly ahead of her nationally.

    I would be surprised if she is allowed to do any debate at this point. If she gets completely embarrassed the Democrats could be back in a position where her awfulness noticeably affects the down ballot races. The correct strategy would be to basically concede the presidency, save face, and run the "joy" campaign to hope to get a national turnout of minority voters that Joe had completely lost, hopefully holding onto congressional and senate races they should win.

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