Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

[tgull]

Internals show the RFK support shows a 50,000 - 75,000 vote swing for Trump in EACH swing state. This means a Trump rout. Poly Market still shows this 50-50, but a good debate by Trump and the DNC fade the next couple weeks, I think the rout will be on. Also, Tulsi appears to be ready for an announcement, as other disenfranchised Democrats. Unlike some obscure Mayor or a disgruntled one month Press Secratary (who was really ugly looking lets face it, she looked like a Democrat), Trump has the muscle on the transfer portal.

[Jayjami]

The most recent swing state polling has Harris leading Trump by this much:

[Sloppy Joe]

If I'm Team Retard I would hope he runs away scared from debating Kamala.

Obviously weak and cowardly but no chance of a positive outcome; he would look insane and deranged against anyone but a walking cadaver and Kamala will mop the floor with him.

Both candidates looking to avoid the spotlight, lol America.

[tgull]

This is the first poll post DNC, and by one of the more reliable:

National: Trump vs. Harris Morning Consult
Harris 48, Trump 44

Harris +4

Nowhere near enough, it should be 8+ to have a chance to counter the CA and NY bias. Her support has collapsed by white men in PA. Look for a full blown media campaign this week by the MSM. No, the bus tour by Harris and Dudley Do-right is not going to be nearly enough. I said this before, she has no chance with white working class men. I am going to be proven right, again.

[limitles]

This is the first poll post DNC, and by one of the more reliable:

National: Trump vs. Harris Morning Consult
Harris 48, Trump 44

Harris +4

Nowhere near enough, it should be 8+ to have a chance to counter the CA and NY bias. Her support has collapsed by white men in PA. Look for a full blown media campaign this week by the MSM. No, the bus tour by Harris and Dudley Do-right is not going to be nearly enough. I said this before, she has no chance with white working class men. I am going to be proven right, again.

[tgull]

This is the first poll post DNC, and by one of the more reliable:

National: Trump vs. Harris Morning Consult
Harris 48, Trump 44

Harris +4

Nowhere near enough, it should be 8+ to have a chance to counter the CA and NY bias. Her support has collapsed by white men in PA. Look for a full blown media campaign this week by the MSM. No, the bus tour by Harris and Dudley Do-right is not going to be nearly enough. I said this before, she has no chance with white working class men. I am going to be proven right, again.

Poll has a 4.7% Dem bias, its why its not even cited on RCP. Even the main stream Dems don't mention it. Try harder.

[sonatine]

the only poll that matters is PA. im warming to the opinion that this all feels like 2016 again, which worries me. but trump has lost evangelicals and centerist republicans. they didnt show up for him in 2020 and there is even less support for him in 2024. the market is roaring, and the average education of the people worse off than they were in 2020 is a GED.

if you start hearing kamala talk about migrating tech reliance from taiwan to the rust belt, start investing in DKS and DECK because team retard is going to be living in tent cities while the rest of us retire off the robot taxes.

[tgull]

the only poll that matters is PA.

This really is correct, I spent many years living in PA, and it really is like three different states. The East borders the most left portion of the country. The SW borders WV and Ohio. The Northeast of the state is a mixed bag towards Syracuse and Rochester.

My gut tells me Trump will pull more disenfranchised voters than Kamala. I drove through the Southern portion of the state a month ago and saw literally hundreds of Trump signs. Granted it was before Harris had any momentum, she had just been announced. But my gut tells me Trump has the momentum. To be fair, I did not drive to North Philadelphia so I am quite sure the experience would have been different.

[Texter]

If I'm Team Retard I would hope he runs away scared from debating Kamala.

Obviously weak and cowardly but no chance of a positive outcome; he would look insane and deranged against anyone but a walking cadaver and Kamala will mop the floor with him.

Both candidates looking to avoid the spotlight, lol America.

And each party wasting almost a billion….what a country

[sonatine]

the only poll that matters is PA.

This really is correct, I spent many years living in PA, and it really is like three different states. The East borders the most left portion of the country. The SW borders WV and Ohio. The Northeast of the state is a mixed bag towards Syracuse and Rochester.

My gut tells me Trump will pull more disenfranchised voters than Kamala. I drove through the Southern portion of the state a month ago and saw literally hundreds of Trump signs. Granted it was before Harris had any momentum, she had just been announced. But my gut tells me Trump has the momentum. To be fair, I did not drive to North Philadelphia so I am quite sure the experience would have been different.

i still cant wrap my head around PA being up for grabs tbh. i guess the college kids in PGH / Phili balance out the yinzers or something, idk.

[VaughnP]

Poll has a 4.7% Dem bias, its why its not even cited on RCP. Even the main stream Dems don't mention it. Try harder.

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/AmericaRus2024/status/1828043814738502064

Pretty remarkable how every single poll that tries to be unbiased, or when data is available to read through the bias, shows Trump polling 1-2 points ahead.

[tgull]

This Day In History - August 27th
RCP Average 2024 2020 2016

National Harris +1.5 Biden +7.1 Clinton +6.3

Wisconsin Harris +1.0 Biden +3.5 Clinton +11.5

Pennsylvania Trump +0.2 Biden +5.8 Clinton +9.2

Ohio Trump +8.5 Biden +2.3 Clinton +4.8

Michigan Harris +2.0 Biden +4.8 Clinton +9.0

Arizona Trump +0.2 Biden +2.2 Trump +1.5

Nevada Trump +1.4 -- Clinton +2.3

North Carolina Trump +0.9 Tie Clinton +1.7

Georgia Trump +1.0 Trump +1.1 Clinton +1.0

Florida Trump +6.3 Biden +3.7 Clinton +2.9

[tgull]

This Day In History - August 27th
RCP Average 2024 2020 2016

National Harris +1.5 Biden +7.1 Clinton +6.3

Wisconsin Harris +1.0 Biden +3.5 Clinton +11.5

Pennsylvania Trump +0.2 Biden +5.8 Clinton +9.2

Ohio Trump +8.5 Biden +2.3 Clinton +4.8

Michigan Harris +2.0 Biden +4.8 Clinton +9.0

Arizona Trump +0.2 Biden +2.2 Trump +1.5

Nevada Trump +1.4 -- Clinton +2.3

North Carolina Trump +0.9 Tie Clinton +1.7

Georgia Trump +1.0 Trump +1.1 Clinton +1.0

Florida Trump +6.3 Biden +3.7 Clinton +2.9

I get Trump has to debate, but his staff is recommending him not to, given he almost would certainly win with these numbers. Now, Trump's ego would never allow him to forgo the debate, and as a viewer I would want him to go forward as its must watch TV. But make no mistake, despite the MSM trying to frame the race as a dead heat, he is significantly ahead.

[go_buccos]

Not the presidential race, but interestingly a recent bipartisan poll finds the Maryland Senate race between Larry Hogan and Angela Alsobrooks tied at 46.

Hogan was a very popular Republican governor there, but I have to think that Alsobrooks is still a heavy favorite in this race, just given the demographic makeup of that state.

Harris leads Trump by an average of 32 points in the presidential polling there. That's just too much to overcome IMO.

If Trump can get it under 20 points, Hogan might have a shot. If he can somehow spring the upset it's game over for any hopes D's have of keeping the Senate.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/0...hogan-00176423

[Tellafriend]

even with the sure to be train-wreck a debate b/n this two asshats would be, there is 0.0% chance i will watch more than a post debate twitter clip of the zingers.

honestly, at this point, it all makes my skin crawl and repulses me.

[tgull]

Kamala has a lot of work to to do. There is virtually no bounce, and it likely goes south from here.


Arizona: Trump vs. Harris Noble Predictive Insights
Trump 47, Harris 44

Trump +3

National: Trump vs. Harris Yahoo News
Harris 47, Trump 46

Harris +1

Clinton was up 6 and Biden up 8 at this point, just as a beacon.

[garrett]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/Lynda555E/status/1828716627707199851

[tgull]

This is not what the Harris campaign wants to see post DNC. She is behind the Electoral College. The stupid 'vibe' is wearing off real fast.

National Multi-Candidate Economist/YouGov
Harris 47, Trump 45, Kennedy , Stein 1, West 0

Harris +2

[sonatine]

honestly this is actually quite bad for harris

[VaughnP]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1829211447790100637

Remember that Nate Silver left 538 and took his model with him. This should be alarming to any Kamalbrahs. The libtardian contingent is freaking out over it. His model has proven to be inherently biased the last two elections. If it accounted for polling bias, how much of a favorite would Trump be? It should also be noted that they even dropped Rasmussen over a dispute - they had them rated as their third most accurate pollster.