I don't know what he has going on the backend and I am not claiming that it's nothing. I'm just saying that the play, in and of itself, was objectively terrible.Originally Posted by Dan Druff
-I imagine that he gets comps for that kind of action. I didn't count the number of spins and nor do I know the base expected return of the machine, much less the expected return from the state he started play, so it is possible...though seems unlikely...that comps alone would cover for that sort of expected loss. I also don't know how much action he has to put in to maintain those comps, but assuming he has already put in that action (or will put in that action in the future anyway), then there really doesn't seem like any great need to play that specific game, in that specific state, at that specific bet amount.
*On the other hand, it could be that he already used his card that day and wants to maintain ADT or perhaps needs to make up for a light ADT day. Neither of us can know, and even if you did know, you couldn't say.
*All I am saying is the machine state was awful. I'm not trying to make Matt out to be an idiot; I just don't want anyone here watching that video and thinking that setup is even borderline playable on its own.
-I inadvertently also covered this point above.
-Loss rebate is possible. I will say that loss rebates add significantly to the expected value of an overall play, but it's always better to just win instead. If you do want to take some huge shots to try to get to your optimal STOP WIN on a loss rebate sort of deal, then Regal Riches (in that state) is one of the worst ways you can do that.********** The way Regal Riches plays out is both repetitive and predictable. It's like Hexbreaker. Unless bottom is good or one of the MH numbers are good, then the machine kicks the shit out of you until you maybe make it back by finally hitting the bonus that you knew would eventually come; that's what makes the machine beatable...if you have good numbers.
*So, if loss rebate, then my recommendation would be to play almost anything else. Even with a loss rebate, you still don't want to lose you just realize your EV when you do lose, but winning is still better. As far as his Regal Riches play went, that's pretty much textbook how that's going to go if you take numbers like that. Just because you have a loss rebate does not making losing a desirable outcome.
-That's an outside possibility. By doing it on a machine such as Regal Riches, it shows that he plays Regal Riches (and other variable-state games) which would justify being on them when they are positive. That said, you'd still never play Regal Riches in that state if this is your only reason for doing so, but it might combine with other reasons mentioned and addressed above.
-Seems highly likely. It's certainly going to take awhile to realize that expected loss by way of Youtube revenues, but it could be the long game.
I do like the channels that show the losses; NJ Slots Guy is another good example, though he does not even attempt to AP and most of what he plays can't even be played in a positive state...some things theoretically could but usually not.
***Anyway, I'm sure he was playing that for some combination of the above. There's no world where he's not getting comps and free play, obviously. All I am saying is that everyone should know that machine is not even in sniffing distance of being a play by itself and it would take one hell of a combination of the above factors to ever justify playing that game in that poor of game state. In terms of average EV per spin, I obviously can't know, but I wouldn't be shocked if he was getting his money in worse than most of the other high-limit shit on the floor that doesn't have a variable-state element.
**********ADDED: I can think of one possible exception to that, but having rewatched the end of the video, it doesn't look like he was doing that exception.
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