Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #37121
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Well... I'm in a bit of a slump.

    Which is why I don't love trying to get out of it with a big dog, but here we are.

    James Paxton is 5.40 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 23:9 K/BB since July 1. I'm going with the Royals today and their bullpen to take this one over Boston. You can list Paxton but leave it open for the Royals.

    Kansas City (bullpen/Cox) +195 at Boston (Paxton)

  2. #37122
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    We are entering the final days of the golden age of legalized sports betting.
    Name:  
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    As evidenced by BCR’s article the speed of change is astonishing. I never forecast this and I was as pessimistic as anyone you know. Correctly so.

    I was in SouthPoint just after VSIN put up the booth in the sportsbook. I remember asking what that was all about. First round of MLB playoffs Oct 2017.

    3 years is very generous. AI is about to hit too on both sides of the counter. Edges so tiny. Lines so efficient. Customer targeting so sad.

    I hope China has made his nut or will soon. The future is wagering-tainment not creating tickets. Maybe that’s what you meant by, “we will see more of him”. It’s about views

    I wouldn't worry about Chinas well being.

    I had a discussion with a guy earlier this week that knows more about the sports wagering ecosystem than anyone else I know. He is certainly qualified enough to get that level if praise from me. The gyst of the conversation was local PPH based sportsbooks are dead from a true sharp betting perspective. He in turn had a meeting with 5 of the largest bookies in the area and to a man they have all told there old reliable clients they will continue on with them. Don't bother to ask them to open any dime accounts for some random new guy. New accounts are $200 max if at all. You will need to fill out a sports credit app to get in action going forward.

    TL;DR Syndicates are going to hammer public books for as long as they can. They done monkeying around with pph.

  3. #37123
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post

    Name:  
Views: 
Size:

    As evidenced by BCR’s article the speed of change is astonishing. I never forecast this and I was as pessimistic as anyone you know. Correctly so.

    I was in SouthPoint just after VSIN put up the booth in the sportsbook. I remember asking what that was all about. First round of MLB playoffs Oct 2017.

    3 years is very generous. AI is about to hit too on both sides of the counter. Edges so tiny. Lines so efficient. Customer targeting so sad.

    I hope China has made his nut or will soon. The future is wagering-tainment not creating tickets. Maybe that’s what you meant by, “we will see more of him”. It’s about views

    I wouldn't worry about Chinas well being..
    I don’t know what you are going on about.

    In keeping with opportunity and the times I knew China had quit poker and shifted to sports betting some time ago. During the Golden Age as it were

    There have been eras when guys saw opportunity and cleaned up. Poker, Bitcoin, sports wagering. Now I’m told he’s the subject of a podcast so perhaps he killed it. Why would I be “worried” for him? China must have done something important. Nobody is looking to interview you or I.

    If you wanna share the link, I’ll take it.

    China did a great pod on poker which I praised a decade ago in real time. He was far more real about poker than poker podcasters of that era. He might turn out to be a great wagering podcaster and clean up there too. I understand the wagering pod money for some has been downright stupid. Why take risk when you can just talk about it?

    I had a favorite wagering pod. I liked it less because of the picks and more because of the banter between the three guys. They insulted each other and disrespected the other’s choices. They were funny. Very New Jersey/New York. It was entertaining. One of the guys and my personal favorite seems to have suffered a mental episode and will not come on air anymore. I wonder if it was his mental challenge or he was getting harassed by some busto viewer. Fruitcake viewers could be an occupational risk. The chemistry was never the same. These guys were playing jazz. Other podcasts are just a collection of instruments.

  4. #37124
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Its a manner of speaking San. China is doing well being the point.

  5. #37125
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Civale versus Cle is intriguing. I just can’t figure out the angle. Would be insta under if Curry could go 7, as he’s been very good, but he’s in this weird relief one day/spot start bullpen game slot and the Tribe’s middle relief has been very hit/miss.

  6. #37126
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    Civale versus Cle is intriguing. I just can’t figure out the angle. Would be insta under if Curry could go 7, as he’s been very good, but he’s in this weird relief one day/spot start bullpen game slot and the Tribe’s middle relief has been very hit/miss.
    I saw that last night. Honestly this slate looks like the special Olympics. The trash going to the hill is almost comical. It’s been a really wonky week.

    Maybe you’ve inspired me to take another peek.

    Cleveland +170
    Low scoring flip at a big plus number Hate Josh Naylor out. Clase still has pitches left.

    I bet a small one topping pizza.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 08-11-2023 at 01:16 PM.

  7. #37127
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    August dog days struggles.

    I have two for you anyway.

    Pittsburgh (Oviedo) -111 vs Cincinnati (Abbott)

    Two pitchers going completely opposite directions.


    Arizona (Nelson) +144 vs San Diego (Snell)

  8. #37128
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Arizona? Aren’t they 11-28 lately? They could be the worst team in baseball atm. Wow the NL West is dog shit. As usual, I guess. We had hopes at the start.

    Why am I obsessed with this Det v Sawks game? Sale return and public on Det. Wanna take Sawks but…

    From the gang who can’t shoot straight (Wynn)

    WynnBet Shutting Down Sports Betting, Online Casino In Multiple States

    https://www.legalsportsreport.com/12...-eight-states/

  9. #37129
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Rays lulz atm. LFG BCR

  10. #37130
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    @starbucks

    Stunning loss for Alcaraz to American Tommy Paul. This kid has hurt me several times. I’m in pain. It’s gonna take a week to forget this loss.

    Does Alcaraz join the over rated Jays on the perpetually overpriced ban list? Bo Bichette’s father (ex MLB player himself) really wanted his son, the Jays shortstop, to play tennis instead.

    I don’t know if Alcaraz is a roids kid, has a conditioning issue, bad team or is getting caught up in the jet set….. or if his worst failing is simply being a kid

    One of the greatest and sickest athletes ever in sport over the long haul. Djokovic


     
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      Starbucks Spunk Bucket: Good quote. I would never bet heavy favourites anyway lol

  11. #37131
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    I am not yet prepared to make a statement regarding Spencer Strider (game 2). When the jury returns you will be notified. It’s not looking good for him. Prepare your things

  12. #37132
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    Lucas Glover really is breaking my balls at this point.

    Must be serious heat, all the golfers have betty swollocks

    A bit like me sweating Hun An and Andrew Putnam

    Putnam just chipped in from 50 yards lol. Distinctly average big son

     
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      1dollarboxcar: Glover is gonna gonna be good for me this tourney..... heavy money money for me to finish top 30.... pre tournament... sorry he burned you
    BALLIN'!!

  13. #37133
    Platinum 1dollarboxcar's Avatar
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    1dollarboxcar: Glover is gonna gonna be good for me this tourney..... heavy money money for me to finish top 30.... pre tournament... sorry he burned you
    a little clarification on the heavy money from me on Lucas Glover.... it is kinda heavy money for me .... $115 Glover to finish top 30 at -110 ,$1 Glover to win at

    +7500... Hovland to win $1 at +2000... won $8 on a round 1 matchup between Tony Finau vs. Wyndam Clark.... that was my play this tourney... now just to sit back and hopefully relax the rest of the tourney....

     
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      Starbucks Spunk Bucket: Good luck- I’m just bitter because I backed him the very week before this winning streak began lol

  14. #37134
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Alright. Too much chatter and not enough picks from me.

    Both plus money parlays.
    Red Sox/Houston

    Red Sox/Dodgers.

    Bellinger 1+ hit or HRR as a piece is ok. I know he missed last time but he’s 9 for 10

    Det Manning last 3 is an era & whip approaching 10. Struggling.
    Manning's struggles carried over into Sunday's start. He allowed five runs through the first two innings and later gave up his second home run of the day in the fourth. The 25-year-old was miraculously one out away from completing six frames but was yanked after allowing consecutive base hits. Manning has put together a very forgettable three-game stretch during which he's allowed 19 runs (17 earned) on 23 hits, including six home runs over his last 16.2 innings. The Tigers don't really have any better options at this point, so Manning figures to stick around. He's tentatively lined up to face the Red Sox on the road in his next start.
    Read More News

  15. #37135
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Like the Reds in game 1. Keller has been in meh/ok form at best last five-six starts. Williamson has been in good form. Keller has more upside, but had trouble spotting fastball and keeping pitch count down or getting beat up in half his last six starts after very good start to season.

    Can get Reds slightly plus money. The books and schedule have Williamson starting game one. The preview article on espn says otherwise, so if something strange occurs, could be void bet, but doubtful.

    Not a lot of Reds have much history against Keller. Steer is 2/4. Kind of like his over 1.5 hits/runs/rbi prop at -140, but it won’t let me same game that. Just a horrible hits combo that only makes +114 to +140 and that isn’t enough value.

  16. #37136
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Pirates are starting Andre Jackson in second game. Kid that the Dodgers gave up on and Pirates picked up. He’s legit looked like the nastiest fucker alive since arriving. Against Braves and Brewers. This is his first start and won’t go more than 3 I imagine. Only factors into a first inning or first 5 prop, but take a look at this kid since joining pirates. Then again, I’ve seen relievers fall apart with a start, different mentality, but I was shocked Dodgers gave up on him given his stuff when on.

  17. #37137
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1dollarboxcar View Post
    1dollarboxcar: Glover is gonna gonna be good for me this tourney..... heavy money money for me to finish top 30.... pre tournament... sorry he burned you
    a little clarification on the heavy money from me on Lucas Glover.... it is kinda heavy money for me .... $115 Glover to finish top 30 at -110 ,$1 Glover to win at

    +7500... Hovland to win $1 at +2000... won $8 on a round 1 matchup between Tony Finau vs. Wyndam Clark.... that was my play this tourney... now just to sit back and hopefully relax the rest of the tourney....

    I mean hovland was in last place after say one and is one good shot from being tied for the lead. He fucking doubled the 18th hole twice.

    Feel good about the fact that he was the best player for the course this weekend the way he has played 41 of the last 42 holes.

     
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      1dollarboxcar: agreed that +2 rd. 1 start for Hovland killed him... and yeah a missed shot on this course will you... and he is falling apart as i write this.... sorry pal

  18. #37138
    Platinum 1dollarboxcar's Avatar
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    misfire ^^ and yeah a missed shot on this course will KILL you.

  19. #37139
    Platinum 1dollarboxcar's Avatar
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    also i really didn't think Glover could " par " his way to victory.... but it is starting to look that way.... he is kinda lucky his playing partner Taylor Moore and was in 2nd starting today took a shit... Glover kinda lucky Spieth, Hovland and Rory are erratic today but do have some birdies and were 3-4 shots behind when the day started.... it's gonna be a very interesting ending....

    and of course Cantaly and Fleetwood are not out of it by any means...
    Last edited by 1dollarboxcar; 08-13-2023 at 03:11 PM.

  20. #37140
    Platinum 1dollarboxcar's Avatar
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    i mean it is like watching an NFL team go into their " prevent defense " and run the ball up the middle to run out the clock......cause they have a 20 point lead starting the 4th quarter.... just knew the inevitable was coming......
    Last edited by 1dollarboxcar; 08-13-2023 at 04:15 PM.

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