Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #36361
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    What a sickening Rays beat. Oof
    Did you bet this, or were you just feeling bad for Nicky Pipes?

    But yeah that's pretty awful. This is the type of thing which can deflate a team's astoundingly hot start.

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    The Mashing in Mexico is a dud.

    4-3 going to the bottom of the 8th.

    I almost bet double on this one because I was that sure it would go under 19.5.

    As Sanlmar said, among other reasons, MLB itself had an incentive to prevent another 28-run barrage. Maybe a dead ball was brought in, for example. Either way, the 19.5 total was a major overcorrection. People just don't realize how much has to happen in an MLB game for 20 runs to come home.

     
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      Sanlmar: We each binked a Mexico

  3. #36363
    Plutonium lol wow's Avatar
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    greatest bottom of the 8th ever

  4. #36364
    Plutonium lol wow's Avatar
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    that bloop double for the cover marronnnnnnnnnnne

  5. #36365
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lol wow View Post
    that bloop double for the cover marronnnnnnnnnnne
    Did you bet -1.5 on this? lol

    Well, great job I guess

     
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      lol wow: No minus 145 but it was a great job by me thank you dangiel

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  7. #36367
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    If you have access to nfl draft props where its “player X will be drafted at 2-3-4-5-6-7 etc” and you want a really good play DM me


    Nobody in here DM’ed me.

    The play was for Bijon Robinson to go #6 overall to the Detroit Lions.

    So its a big loss?

    Well there was two ways to bet it

    1. Sixth pick Bijon +2500

    Obviously a loss

    2. the Lions select a RB with their first pick +4000

    With the very much unexpected selection of J Gibbs after moving back to 12, after Bijon was selected at 7 by Atlanta - this was probably the most improbable win of my sports betting career.

  8. #36368
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    What a sickening Rays beat. Oof
    Did you bet this, or were you just feeling bad for Nicky Pipes?

    But yeah that's pretty awful. This is the type of thing which can deflate a team's astoundingly hot start.
    I did bet TBL. I took them live down 1. DK was offering a boost (25%) on live MLB so I skipped preflop.

    I had that money spent. Lol.

    This Bruins game is great

  9. #36369
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Really really simple bet.

    Fade the presidents cup winner.

    Works like a charm

  10. #36370
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Really really simple bet.

    Fade the presidents cup winner.

    Works like a charm
    Chasing the NHL all time record instead of load managing will be discussed and referenced long past our deaths.

    Ullmark gets hurt in a meaningless game and here you are.

    I’m pretty sure I posted FLA was the side. No way Boston was 2.5x better than Panthers. People kept saying it was an “emotional hedge’ for me. I kept responding with math. It finally dawned on me what they meant.

    I won that game nine ways to Sunday. Only thing I lost was a -1.5 +280 Fla.

    Next year I resolve to focus on ties. I think I need a separate fund for ties to give me confidence. It was reg +430 @ 3-2 and I just couldn’t push button. I cannot explain

    FLA will wreck Toronto

  11. #36371
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Leafs in 5 or 6.

    Boston was banged up and had goalie aids surprisingly.

    I fully believe the Leafs will go up 2-0 at home to start the series.

  12. #36372
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    look at this group of engaged older whites todge has seeming to care about hockey this is adorable slash possibly marketable lets get some medicare ads on this site tbone

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    sal how soon can we get you on a humana gold no premium hmo plan

  14. #36374
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    I hold these money and sharp distribution reports in muted regard for their accuracy but I’m floored. I actually thought Devils would be taking the money

    Name:  C5EFA3E0-39C9-4F2D-BB34-038B1ED63A3B.jpeg
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  15. #36375
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    I hold these money and sharp distribution reports in muted regard for their accuracy but I’m floored. I actually thought Devils would be taking the money

    Name:  C5EFA3E0-39C9-4F2D-BB34-038B1ED63A3B.jpeg
Views: 389
Size:  43.2 KB

    On a site I use it shows ~55% public on New Jersey.

    I was looking up game 7 stats and the home/away record is a lot closer than most would think. ***pasted below these are from 2022.

    Is the actual play to load up on the team that scores first?

    * The team that scores first is 143-47 (.753) in the 190 all-time Game 7s in the Stanley Cup Playoffs (5-1 in 2022).

    * Home teams own a 111-79 (.584) advantage in the 190 all-time Game 7s in the Stanley Cup Playoffs (4-2 in 2022).

     
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      Sanlmar: Muted regard

  16. #36376
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    I hold these money and sharp distribution reports in muted regard for their accuracy but I’m floored. I actually thought Devils would be taking the money

    Name:  C5EFA3E0-39C9-4F2D-BB34-038B1ED63A3B.jpeg
Views: 389
Size:  43.2 KB

    On a site I use it shows ~55% public on New Jersey.

    I was looking up game 7 stats and the home/away record is a lot closer than most would think. ***pasted below these are from 2022.

    Is the actual play to load up on the team that scores first?

    * The team that scores first is 143-47 (.753) in the 190 all-time Game 7s in the Stanley Cup Playoffs (5-1 in 2022).

    * Home teams own a 111-79 (.584) advantage in the 190 all-time Game 7s in the Stanley Cup Playoffs (4-2 in 2022).
    Like I said, I don’t give too much weight to these kind of reports. Just a data point.

    Can YOU post the graph?

    I don’t bet off historical data like that. It’s interesting yes. The Kraken score first was a more relevant number.

    I forgot to mention I’m on Rangers larger than usual. Chatting with my guys they have more than usual action on one side or the other. It’s interesting the conviction this game is generating on both sides.

    Of course, Devils goalie Akira Schmidt has me nervous.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-01-2023 at 10:43 AM.

  17. #36377
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Kluber going today, and the wind is blowing out of Fenway at 11mph. 'Nuff said.

    Toronto (Berrios) at Boston (Kluber) - Over 5.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS +105

     
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      Pablo: OK

  18. #36378
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Phillies T-bone Walker and his forearm stiffness vs the Gonsolin following his abuse in 2022 at the hands of Dodgers.

    I think Phillies have few options. See what happens approach.

    Gonsolin on a pitch count no doubt

    Muncy in JD out. Per Alta is in but he should be shipped to Tulsa to hand out water to people with talent. Outman stealing Corbin Carroll’s ROY thunder. Join me in prayer Druff that Carroll’s MRI is fine.


    Dodgers typically overpriced but I’m still -.5 F5 -125.

    I have Spencer Strider money to play with. He and Braves scared me.

     
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      Pablo: looks good

  19. #36379
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    I like both of those first fives. I will steal the plays. Lets cash gentlemen.

    I like Suns/Nugs over 229.

  20. #36380
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    Becoming an unexpected sweat!

    3-2 after 1.5 innings. I was pretty much counting my money, especially given that both teams have had runners in scoring position every inning. Nope! Can't get that damn 6th run across.

    Bottom 4, still 3-2.

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