Originally Posted by Dan Druff
What pfa curse?
You tailed my Ryan picks twice before, should've done it again, pal.
What pfa curse?
You tailed my Ryan picks twice before, should've done it again, pal.
Brother
I need approach you regarding a difficult subject. You understand I too have partaken in the bounty of the Rays. My bonafides are beyond reproach.
Take caution my friend as TBR’s bullpen is starting to freak me out. Their SIERRA & xFip are bad as we come into what looks like a bullpen day. Their SIERRA is close to the Las Vegas A’s.
Brown for Astros is pretty darn good. DraftKings has +116 and FanDuel isn’t even offering to the general public so I’m going be a craven ass and min bet the Astros. Let’s see how that works out.
As a peace offering I will give you Wash & Mets under 8.5 -120. I know you arise at 4:30am but the less disciplined will likely see 8’s. Two good pitchers. I can go on if challenged but I’m a man of few words.
You can be a whore and back McKenzie Gore and the Nationals @ +175 and that wouldn’t be wrong as NYM Senga is regressing. It’s a lifestyle choice.
I’m talking to myself again, aren’t I?
Last edited by Sanlmar; 04-26-2023 at 12:06 AM.
Listen pal sometimes I "take action" from this degenerate who loves to bet sports. This morning he contacted me and said he blew up his online account and wants to place some heavy action today. I said ok, booked, send over your plays.
It's a big list, he is a big loser but sometimes hits major hot streaks. On Saturday in College Football he went 9 for 9 against me! Imagine that pal!
These are my sides, so he has the opposite:
Heat +12
Heat +7.5 1st half
Warriors -1.5 game
Warrior -.5 1st half
Panthers +1/2 game
Avalanche -1.5
Avalanche -172
Cubs Padres Under 8
Angels -1.5
Giants St Louis Under 8.5
Rangers Reds Over 8.5
Twins Yankees Under 7.5
Dodgers Pirates Over 8.5
Phillies +104
Rays -119 (was pleased to see I wan't forced to Fade and ruin my steak of betting every game, painful to post this in Cursed thread)
Marlins Braves Over 8
Orioles -124
Blue Jay -1/5
Tigers +1.5
Royals +1.5
Considered a few different plays today, but talked myself out of all of them... except one.
This starts in about 20 minutes. This is yet another has-been pitcher fade. For whatever reason, 2023 is full of has-been starters who somehow still have a job in MLB.
Today's particular has-been makes sense to still have a job, as he channeled his old self in 2022, after years of getting clobbered. Michael Wacha turned back the clock and became his 2018 version last year, pitching very well for the Sawks.
The Padres foolishly thought this would last longer than just one fluke year, and signed him for 2023. He has been awful so far, getting hammered in 3 of his 4 starts.
On the other end of the spectrum, we have Drew Smyly, one of 2019's worst pitchers, who had a nice, under- the-radar season for the Cubs in 2022, and almost had a perfect game last time out against the Dodgers. In his last 18 1/3 innings, Smyly has allowed just 7 hits, and 2 runs, over 3 starts.
Take the Cubbies at home here.
Cubs (Smyly) -105 vs San Diego (Wacha)
This one is looking like I'm going to fall on the wrong side of variance.
Cubs fell behind 2-0 in top 4, but then got a 2-run HR in the bottom of the inning, and scored another in the 5th.
However, Fernando Tatis Jr (remember him?) singled in two in the top of the 7th, and now it's 4-3 Padres.
The Cubs pen is a mess, so much that I considered a first-5 here, which I would've won. However, I prefer first 5s when I'm betting on a bad team on the road with a good starting pitcher. In a year where the Padres are underperforming and the Cubs are overperforming -- and the Cubs are at home -- it's harder to give up the juice and do a first 5 bet, since you pay more house juice and also often get a worse price than the game anyway.
Looks like I'm going to pay the price here.
I feel like I’m talking to myself pal. I give and I give. Do you understand?
Should have made the post. Had a square as can be freind call me because Im the guy who bets. He begged me to find him an out for as much money as possible to Take Bruins -255 last night. Guaranteed win he said.
I did him a favor and didn't pass it along to anyone nor did i hold it myself. He was mad at the time…. Thought inwas holding back on him (he was right).
You know the “fallen hero” angle. Star gets hurt and team rallies next game. Old as time.
The “returning hero” is a huge red flag or potential fade. Everyone sits back - they had over achieved in his absence, let’s just “watch” the Star take over
Bergeron is a beloved clubhouse leader. This guy is talented of course but he makes an effort to solve problems for his team mates. Personal matters, hockey issues. Bergeron is known to call AHL players to offer advice or help. Guy is legit. Think Aaron Rogers (lulz).
The Bruins were able to become the all time record breaking team this year because of the mature locker room. Guys like Bergeron are legitimately respected. The normal regular season apathy, laziness, load management you find in modern sports teams was overcome thru unique and respected leadership. A “night off” wasn’t tolerated.
This evening I’m driving into Boston listening to the pregame on radio. Bergeron was a game time decision after a long absence. The radio guy notices he’s not skating with Brad Marchand. Those two always skated together pregame since Marchand was a pup.
Bergeron returns and he obviously is gonna disrupt the line chemistry that was developed thru necessity in his absence. Marchand and Bergeron aren’t on the same line 1st period. 2nd period they were. It’s just disruption and hope. Didn’t work
A stay away situation like you read about.
You saved your square friend from Bruins but he got down on Avalanche. Cause America loves celebrity names.
No good deed and all that
It’s a girl, Druff.
I have not bet a NRFI this year. Urias & Keller RHP against your front end.
It’s -120 on FanDuel.
All I have to do is hit redial to get 1-800-GAMBLER
I prolly won’t but Druff is experiencing a quiet understanding. You deserve better Druff
I can't access Fanduel.
But I should start looking into those NRFI (no runs first inning) bets.
I wonder if BOL offers them. Haven't checked yet.
When I get a better handle on the bizarre scoring situation in MLB, I will start looking at RHE bets again, too.
I have a YRFI pal but you will take it personally and my family’s safety comes first. +100. I know. It’s legalized wagering in this liberal state and I’m trying real hard not to get sodomized by these lines.
It’s a value thing. Look pal, if you let the sunlight shine on the power of these two offenses it can be seen as a compliment. Yes, the pitchers are simply fabulous. They sparkle.
I’m bargaining with a potential captor. What am I doing?
Okay enough with the riddles. Here’s a mindless -108 parlay that celebrates our national summer past time. Gambling.
Angels Ohtani F5 vs A’s. The A’s pitcher is so bad I’m going to [redact] his name.
Mets Crime Boss Sonny Lucchese vs Wash Williams who is a soft tosser with a 91mph fastball. I’ll tell you who the fraud is - it’s Williams don’t believe his numbers … go with the Crime Boss.
I hope you will have indulged me for my nonsense but I spent a day playing bank bankruptcy bingo and I’m letting off steam. Janet Yellen tells me and Daly everything is fine. Ritalin is in short supply. Try to stay with me.
BOL didn’t offer anything overnight not even F5’s.
I am enjoying the sometimes quite substantial differences in derivatives like F5’s between the books. EVERYTHING is offered overnight. Batter props, alternative totals … everything.
I gotta tell you even though the lines are anything but dime I’m having fun looking at the card and shopping. The process is fun.
Ideas and short list.
NYM -1.5
Giants STL game over 8.5. Webb & Mikolas both suck … you know
SDP ML but the handedness matchup vs batters. Maybe.
Philly Mariners pitchers both over rated but I don’t know what to do with this game Philly?
My new strategy is just to take the action of this degenerate. Easier for me. I have just been firing randomly lately, took my time on my plays earlier in the baseball season, lately I have been distracted with some issues that have negatively impacted my life.
Yesterday he wound up losing roughly 1.3 units, he put in some plays that I didn't post because he sent them in later, some hit some didn't. Looked like he was going to crush me to start the day. He did on the Cavs game he won 3 of 4 bets on that, he was very unlucky it didn't go OVER.
I stopped taking his action in the fall because it is hard to keep track of, he bets so many games. I went out of town and put him on pause and never started him again until recently. I thought of hiring Filipino staff to keep the books, but if you have worked with them you know its just not a good idea.
Anyways here are todays plays, some are final, whatever I was busy talking to lawyers and couldn't post. Posting My sides, not his
Phillies under 8
Pirates +1/5
Pirates
Royals +1.5
Rangers
rangers over 7.5
Cubs under 8.5
Giants under 8.5
Tiger
Tiger +1.5
Oakland +1.5
Rays -1.5
Rays
Rays over 7
devils
celtics -7
Celtic 1 half -4
Last edited by NickyPipes; 04-27-2023 at 12:39 PM. Reason: OVER
Giants Padres Mexico BOL just put a 9.5 total and it got hit to 10 instantly. Should be 17.
Mexico City makes fenway look like Coors. It’s the moon
DK painted a 15
What are you doing with your life?
Maybe you are arbing but we gotta talk
Fanduel opened 13 and it got smashed to 14.5
BOL is so bad these days. They are only 12.5 now…. Hurt them
What this tells me is BOL is a shell of an operation. There is no desk
I’m willing to admit it’s a quasi weather play. Lol
Last edited by Sanlmar; 04-28-2023 at 11:34 AM.
BOL 15 now.
9.5 —> 15
I wish I had more money on them. I had taken some off.
Well, now I’ll have more
MLB 5-3 +1.75 overall.
Jays under 8.5 +100
Wish I saw this earlier….. well done sir nice bet.
San did you take the over 10 in the bruins game?
They cost me the series bet tonight.
I blame Ullmark he hasn’t been good the past couple games. Does Swayman start game 7?
Last edited by simpdog; 04-28-2023 at 07:30 PM.
Ullmark hit the post awkward & hard a couple games before the end of the regular season. History will record that it was a meaningless game aside from the regular season records broken.
Then Ullmark is “sick” and “questionable”. Yeah, he’s been questionable ever since.
Yeah, Swayman. Can you imagine that? What a finish.
I had a long shot Islanders future I bought mid series +850. I’m in mourning right now.. I need a moment
LFG Kraken. You following the Russian mafia and AVs Valeri Nicushkin? I’m a little afraid.
Your turn. Simp, who is the #1 pitcher for the Dodgers right now? It’s a trick question. I’m over 8.5.
oh and we hit that under and oh jack back courtside good
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