
Originally Posted by
OK2
Mickey, I came across this a couple of days ago. Is this particular method one of your hustles?
"Advantage of the gameplay of certain slot machines which pay out predictably at a certain point.
There's hundreds of games that you can do this with, and I can't explain them all, but I can explain how to figure out the jackpot threshold method.
When you have a must-hit-by jackpot that increases in value per spin, you can calculate exactly which value is the threshold for advantageous play. Say for instance that it must hit by 5,000 dollars, and the current value is 4,999.99 dollars. You literally can't lose. The only possible outcome is that you get paid 5,000 dollars minus the cost of your spin. But since you'll never find that, you have to know what the minimum threshold is for an advantage. Here's how to do that
First step is to figure out what coin-in amount moves the jackpot up by one cent. To do that you can play the game at each bet level and watch what happens. If you spin at one dollar, and nothing happens, then try two dollars, and it goes up one, then you know it's at least two dollars to move it. Spin it again, and if it doesn't move, then it's actually three dollars per penny. Spin it once at three dollars and it doesn't move, then you will know somebody before you fed it two dollars, and that the actual amount to increase it is five dollars. Spin it at five dollars a few times, and it increases each time, you know that's the coin-in per penny.
Next you need to know the RTP (return to player). This is the percentage of every dollar that the machine pays out. If it is 95%, then that means every dollar it takes, it will pay out 95c to somebody. This is the *predicted* result, which means it is what will happen in the long run, not necessarily every spin or every session, otherwise, you would be able to find guaranteed wins pretty often, but advantage playing doesn't mean you always win. It means you always win in the long run.
Using this information, you simply calculate how many pennies away you are from the jackpot, which will be the number of spins you will have to do. Next, multiply the number of spins by the amount of money you have to spend per spin. Then you will get an astronomical number, and you deduct whatever the RTP is. So if you've got a 5k jackpot, and the RTP is 91% and it costs 5 dollars to raise the jackpot, you would look at the current value and do this calculation:
>5000-current value (ex. 4880) = 120 dollars
>Convert to pennies away from jackpot (120x100=12,000)
>multiply by pennies spent per spin (12,000x500=6,000,000)
>convert back to dollars (6,000,000/100=60,000)
>multiply by house take (60,000x0.09=5,400)
So what this tells you is the most predictable result is that you will spend 5,400 dollars in order to get 5,000, for a net loss of 400 dollars. This tells you that under these circumstances, the current value of the jackpot is not enough for a win to be likely. However, if the jackpot value is at 4910, it's a different story
>5000-4910= 90 dollars
>90x100=9,000
>9,000x500=4,500,000
>4,500,000/100=45,000
>45,000x0.09=4050
So the most likely result in this scenario is that you spend 4,050 dollars to get 5,000, resulting in a probable win of 950 dollars.
Of course, likely does not mean inevitably. So you will have sessions where you seem some idiot gambler with no clue just mop up on bad plays, and you will lose on phenomenal plays sometimes. But you always take action that is most likely going to win, and the end result will be that over time, you always come out ahead. And by "over time", I mean over any amount of time other than at the individual game level. My winning days outnumber my losing days 15 to 1, and my best winning days are far, far more significant than my worst losing day. This doesn't just put you ahead when you stick to the program, it also mitigates your losses to such a degree that even if your day is going to be a losing one, you can always recover substantially enough that the damage is controlled."