*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[JeffDime]

Was traveling yesterday and by today a lot of the guys I liked at prices for the Honda have been bet down.

I will be betting Nelly if you want to tail or fade. She did make the trip to Thailand and at +850 is a decent play imo. Nothing special about this pick. Titikul will prob win and tilt me to pieces. But I fired Nelly.

Honda is tough. DP is tough. LIV waiting to see the odds. Ancer will prob be 2nd favorite after Cam Smith after winning in Saudi. The guy is going to want to win in Mexico. Just waiting to see how shitty the price is.

[tigerpiper]

I agree and I’ll be routing hard for you today man. My picks went to shit,,,some faster than others. Getting lucky is one thing. But imo Rahm should prob be 7 or 8 under. Picked up 5/6 strokes off from miracles off the tee and 2 alone on that bank shot eagle. He is the best player in the world but to give him that amount of breaks in absurd. Great call and Max regardless. I know being close in Golf is extenuating. Maxis playing great. Rahm drives like he has last two days and Max just plays his game…well those 3 strokes could melt away like butter.

Well somehow Homa managed to get up a stroke on Rham but couldn't hold. Thats why we cant have nice things…..

Hope you were able to get homa money in on the masters and us open over the weekend…..
I just

It was another great pick. Nice sweat. The back breaker was Rahm's putt on 14. That sucked.

[JeffDime]

Jeff Dimes is the real golf goat. I thank you Jeff for all the picks. Tournament winner and top 5 can’t go wrong with Jeff dimes golf picks. Hunted down JD in ac a few times very stand up guy he is good in my book.

Daly is better than me. I am very good, but he’s great.

[JeffDime]

These odds are surprising to me. Won't tip my hand until I see them on the legal books. But DJ pulling out of the Saudi for injury and being co-favorite is weird. I guess they figure people aren't paying attention. Thought Ancer would be 2nd favorite.

[Daly]

The narrative this week is “finally an event where anyone can win”. I see it entirely different, and an playing it so.

Jon Rham is less of a favorite over the rest of these top 30 heavy enhanced fields than Im is over this particular field.

I think there is a very very clear three tier hierarchy this week.

At the bottom is tier 3 - which is “everyone else”.

Tier two is Shane Lowry +1600 and Denny McCarthy +2500.

I guess we can put Shane a touch higher in the listing. His form has fallen off a touch since last year but he is still a top 30 guy. He also will want to avenge last years loss at the hands of mother nature. McCarthy is a local guy down the street who has good form and might be the best putter in this weak field. Either one wouldnt be a shock to win.

Tier one



I mean ive been telling everyone who will listen that its Im’s time to don the green jacket and at 40-1 odds is a bargain to do so. In these top 30 fields he has “been there” the entire time. Stacked fields Last 10 played - 7th at shriners, 8th at Hero, 13th at the TOC, 18th amex, 4th Farmers, 6th Phoenix…… stacked stacked fields.

In fact if you “took out” everyone not playing this week this is where Im would have finished

Phoenix - First
Farmers - First
Amex - Third (Kirk, Poston)
Toc - First
Hero - First
Shriners - First

And none of these courses are fit his florida swing profile….. and he is the winner here 2 years ago.

I think if his Name was Xander he would be at +400

Love Im this week and he can be found at 10-1 at some shops.

Im playing Im big this week with some backup money on Lowry and McCarthy

[JeffDime]

There is a certain legal book that starts with a C and ends with an S who may have McCarthy at 28-1. Yes, they are cocksuckers as well.

If anyone sees LIV odds on a legal book I'd appreciate the heads up.

Edit: Saw your rep Daly and I'm surprised DK usually has the shittiest odds for golf. Def not the case this week.

BTW Min Woo Lee is fucking 15-1 on Caesars and 28-1 on DraftKings. To see almost double like that...well someone must of shipped it at Ceasers. That is bizarre.

[simpdog]

Leafs in reg +100
Oilers over 7 +100
Vancouver over 6.5

San I may need to go to GA to speak about my Leafs addiction if they lose tonight.

[gut]

Tailing the golf picks this week. Small on Im to win and top 5, Lowry and Mccarthy win and t10.

LFG!

[Daly]

See the front page - I posted a freeroll tied to Im, Lowry and McCarthy.

Hopefully it pans out and you all can participate.

One of the conditions is I will nominate a few players to have a bounty on them….. preference will go to active posters in this thread.

[Sanlmar]

@Simp and Simp-like people

Chris Otto was on this pod. This guy, Matty P is a NHL convert. He does well following simple trends.

I’m a Chris Otto groupie but he is generally quiet. This is a rare sighting.



Chris Otto pays homage to his start with the 1P over madness we cashed back in the day. Lotta nuggets if you listen closely.

Matty is “Boston” like all great gamblers and sports figures. The other guy is “The Book”. He says he is going to get the EVAnalytics guy on the pod.

Save your money for tomorrow. No NBA out of boredom. Thurs is payday.

[simpdog]

Jets under 5.5 -120
Arizona +185

Throwback to first periods.
Hawks/Stars under 1.5 first period +115

[Sanlmar]

Jets under 5.5 -120
Arizona +185

Throwback to first periods.
Hawks/Stars under 1.5 first period +115

Vej let up 5 on like a dozen shots and was pulled in the first. No one and I mean no one is a bigger Vejmelka fanboy than me. He has single handedly won us some nice money… including vs Leafs.

He has been ground to a nub. It’s criminal really. He has absolutely no defense in front of him. Now every prop player is loading up on SoG’s. Normally a under or a stay away. Teams react to the same things the prop players see. Except I don’t think Coyotes have the athletes or the know how to play defense.

I hate myself and this allows me to be all over every Flames SOG you can imagine in all permutations.

It’s time for baseball
Kansas State -1½ +100

https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles...et-february-22

True story.
My wife is out seeing 80 for Brady for the second time with her friends. I just can’t even. Will there be a Kershaw movie?

[simpdog]

@Simp and Simp-like people

Chris Otto was on this pod. This guy, Matty P is a NHL convert. He does well following simple trends.

I’m a Chris Otto groupie but he is generally quiet. This is a rare sighting.

Chris Otto pays homage to his start with the 1P over madness we cashed back in the day. Lotta nuggets if you listen closely.

Matty is “Boston” like all great gamblers and sports figures. The other guy is “The Book”. He says he is going to get the EVAnalytics guy on the pod.

Save your money for tomorrow. No NBA out of boredom. Thurs is payday.

I always wonder how many people were on the 1ps. It's easy to look back and oh ya they were awesome (and placed a few bets near the end) versus being on it fairly early and pounding it.

Speaking of I just looked at some stats tonight and there are a few teams that are lights out I may start to bet those teams until they fade.

[simpdog]

not ready for a Kershaw movie yet they will still win a couple more division banners

[Daly]

These odds are surprising to me. Won't tip my hand until I see them on the legal books. But DJ pulling out of the Saudi for injury and being co-favorite is weird. I guess they figure people aren't paying attention. Thought Ancer would be 2nd favorite.

Ancer now the small favorite on exchange. Im invested here.


Also im not suggesting LIV is fixed. But i don't exactly see them, and as a result the bought and paid players, not holding back on having one particular optimal result vs a non optimal one. Ancer winning in Mexico just makes all the sense in the world.

[Daly]

This and $1.25 will get you a subway token. And lets face it Im and Lowry being 1&2 were obvious. But McCarty has now settled into clear third favorite on exchange.

Lets hope we are right and one of the big 3 take this down.

[JeffDime]

If fuckingIm makes that 3 footer on 9 to go out in 4 under my first round leader bet is....ahhh fuck. He looks solid. Just could of went super low today. Fucking shame.

[Daly]

If fuckingIm makes that 3 footer on 9 to go out in 4 under my first round leader bet is....ahhh fuck. He looks solid. Just could of went super low today. Fucking shame.

Really hard to play the “should be” game with golf. That said that 3.5 ft put on 9 is the shortest put hes missed in forever. He chipped out 2 from the sand that both missed the hole by the width of a golf ball. He also missed three different puts by a golf ball. He did sink two to save his ass along the way that would have been 50/50 to most mortals. There is a Paradigm where Im shot -9 today, but we aint in it.

Lowry had 4 makable outs that didnt fall.

Billy Ho went -5 via missing half the fairways. He was fairly open about not having played well I guarantee you he goes .500 or less hitting fairways he will be in plus numbers tomorrow.

Famous last words but none of the rest of the punters at -2 or better scare me.

We are where we need to be. “Cant win a tournament on Thursday but can sure lose it” sort of mantra.

[Daly]

Some fairly simple math here on some LIV matchups using bookmaker

STRAIGHT BET
[7740027] BRENDAN STEELE -115 (BRENDAN STEELE vrs BUBBA WATSON)

STRAIGHT BET
[7740023] JASON KOKRAK -125 (JASON KOKRAK vrs PETER UIHLEIN)

Steele +1850 Bubba +6500

Kokrak +3250 Uihlein +11050

[Starbucks Spunk Bucket]

Oh dear Sungjae