FAO Stock geeks: My NIA type pick for the next while

[Pooh]

Nice google job. You do understand ETE is king of natural gas after this deal, correct? Of course you don't because you read one little article on a company you've never heard of before and decided to post like you know what the fuck is going on. They will be the leader of natural gas exports for the US and it isn't close. Do you have any idea what they pay for natural gas where the cocks are uncut and smelly compared to what we pay here? Of course you don't. Do some more research next time you're at a rest stop and then come back and report.

THIS TRADE WILL TAKE A COUPLE YEARS TO PLAY OUT.

Thank you

Also, I'm aware that US nat gas prices are lower than Europe's and Japan's, but I recall reading a few years ago that the cost of converting and shipping LNG is about $3-$4/MMBtu. And nat gas prices overseas have also tumbled. When it was about $12 in Europe, and about $4 in the US, the profits from exporting LNG would be great. But nearly as much now.



So will the LNG export business suffer like the shale oil plays in the 80's if world energy commodity prices persist in the doldrums for a decade? And will ETE get through that price slump without have to dilute equity?

You understand their revenues are are over 80% fixed contracts correct? Meaning price doesn't matter. They are a toll road with some of the best real estate in the pipeline industry.

And we wish we only had a $6 billion problem. Total debt is more like 40something billion. The $6 billion you quote is only the cash portion of the transaction that is already a done deal with solid rates capped at 5.5%. They have a ton of projects coming on line in 2017 that will help earnings immensely. If they get the go ahead on the Lake Charles project later this year, a huge if, then they will be in the driver's seat for decades. Completion of that project will make this a ten bagger once it's completed.

Not going to lie, there are risks here. We're trading at $8 for a reason. But for a company like this to yield 12% is a gift. It used to yield 3% and investors were happy about it. I think 7% yield would be a reasonable valuation given the uncertainties going forward. That puts us around $16.28 a share. Factor in 20-30% dividend growth rate going forward once/if the market stabilizes and you have my thesis.

We will either be saying great pick or they flew too close to the sun in a couple years.

I forgot to mention. Another major problem is CHK possibly going insolvent. They supply Williams Co. with 20% of their revenues. That is a problem however it is likely that whoever takes over will have to use Williams as they are the only show in town there. Time will tell.