Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
"This week I was a victim of fancy play syndrome."

This is kind of where I was trying to go with you. You often give the advice to not get involved in big hands on day one of the main. Fairly good advice as the only time I played the main I got knocked out set over set on day one (We had Mexican after). Some small amount was already knocked out in weeks 1&2. On week 3 39% ended up on Seattle. You still have 61% of the field who took a less optimal road. Some did it because they playing 4D chess. Most have no clue. Lets try and outlast the 61% that took the last optimal road before trying to out maneuver the 39% who put together the "best pick".)

What you did is make a move to go for the kill. Eventually you will get down to a small amount of people and you will want to not pick chalk if its possible/likely that a majority will do the same. In week 14 you take 3-4 best team. The 90% left take best team and second best team and you effectively have a ML parlay on two dogs to turn 1K into some large % of 8M (or whatever the payout is this year). Problem is, you cant do that in week 3.

Point being you have to do what you did. You just did it too early.


You still got a chip and a chair and can absolutely still win this.

Early leans on week 4? Sign me up for Houston.
I did this because I had serious doubts about Seattle and moderate doubts about Tampa, so this was the week I chose to fade the chalk. I threw away my initial plan to do 3 Seattle and 2 Tampa tickets, which as I said, would've left me with 5/6 still alive.

Unfortunately I stuck with the wrong chalk (GB), which ironically I chose both because it seemed "safe" (so I'd still have 2 tickets if Tampa and Atlanta lost).

Definitely chip and a chair time.