*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Sanlmar]

Bet on Celtics tonight

Didn't realize Irving was out....whoops

And Horford only played 23min b/c of foul trouble.

What a nail biter

Warriors are 1-2 at home last 3 vs Celtics so Curry has a chance.

[Mintjewlips]

I like Minnesota and San Antonio no matter what the spreads are tomorrow, GL ALL.

[Dan Druff]

Yeah, it covered by 0.5, but personally I'm not happy because I bet the moneyline on this one, feeling that the Cavs either shit the bed or play well, without much in between, so I didn't think the chance of them winning by 1 or 2 was that high.



Refs fucked the Heat, as the NBA clearly wants the Cavs out of their funk.

First, with the game tied 85-85, Lebron stepped on a defender's foot, who then fell down, allowing Lebron to easily pass to an open man for a successful 3-pointer. No call.

So that was huge.

If they called Lebron for an offensive foul for stepping on a defenders foot, it would be the first time in NBA history that call was made.

You’re a dipshit sometimes. Stretch a little further man. The concept of your gripe may be legit but you delegitimize it with this dumb shit

When the Lebron thing happened where he essentially tripped the defender, I said out loud, "Ah that sucks, I'm not getting that call because it's Lebron."

Then that bullshit out of bounds thing happened with 12 seconds left in a 1-point game, and that didn't involve Lebron.

At that point I thought it was probably the refs knowing they were supposed to favor the Cavs and help them out of this funk whenever possible.

The worst part is that they actually reviewed the play, and still concluded it was Cavs' ball.

[Dan Druff]

Anyway I went 2-1 by the picks but 1-2 by my actual bets because I went with a full moneyline bet on Miami.

Did a 50/50 moneyline on Phoenix, which was a great pick, but that only helped a little.

I've thought about the reason I haven't been as hot lately, and it's because of all the injuries and trades. It's very hard to handicap over/unders with these situations, so many times I will just completely avoid totals with too many unknown factors.

At the same time, opportunities to find hidden value in underdog side picks (which are usually where you'll find the value if you pick sides) are fewer and farther between as the season progresses. Now, my sides picks were never all that great, and most of my success has been with totals. With more sides picks than totals lately, PLUS the fact that it's getting tougher to find soft sides lines, it's become more of an uphill battle.

Even had I personally bet on Miami +2.5 (as posted) instead of the moneyline, I still wouldn't have felt great about that win, as it was by 0.5 points, and is not indicative of anything skillful. If anything, it's indicative that the book set the line correctly.

The Phoenix pick was gold, but it's getting harder to find sides picks like those.

In the second part of the season, I'm also going to have to be mindful of tanking, which was a non-factor in the first part.

Anyway, I'll be happy when these lineups stabilize again, and it should become easier to grab +EV totals at that point.

Record now 141-105-3. I'm still hitting 57.31% of picks overall.

I am only 43-43-1 in the past month.

[simpdog]

Druff do you find the lines harder to beat at this point?

Perhaps your system works better earlier on in the season?

Early on I crushed it, then got crushed and gave up.

[chinamaniac]

Druff do you find the lines harder to beat at this point?

Perhaps your system works better earlier on in the season?

Early on I crushed it, then got crushed and gave up.

Too small of a sample to know this.

Its possible thats the case but a certain yes or no would just be guessing. the only way to really know is to analyze thousands of picks etc. over years and then maybe you can find a trend that correlates certain times your winning or losing and even that data could be flawed

Bottom line is 57% is really really good. Anyone who has bet every pick is winning.

[ErickAA]

Druff do you find the lines harder to beat at this point?

Perhaps your system works better earlier on in the season?

Early on I crushed it, then got crushed and gave up.

Too small of a sample to know this.

Its possible thats the case but a certain yes or no would just be guessing. the only way to really know is to analyze thousands of picks etc. over years and then maybe you can find a trend that correlates certain times your winning or losing and even that data could be flawed

Bottom line is 57% is really really good. Anyone who has bet every pick is winning.

Well, if you are betting -110 you probably would have had to jump on the Druff bandwagon very early in the season to still be ahead. If you started tailing in November (which was only 2 weeks into the season) you would probably be down $$ at this point I am guessing.

[Mintjewlips]

FADE ME BITCH



Or not..

[Dan Druff]

Early NBA games (starting in about 20-25 min):

Washington +4 (moneyline of +160 or better ok)
Memphis under 203 (202.5 ok)

[Mintjewlips]

It's not a lock, but spurs moneyline is the closest thing to being a lock imo..

[Dan Druff]

Houston under 208.5 -- game starts about 5:10 PST, may want to wait, as this line might improve a bit

[badguy23]

UNDER 68 TEMPLE FIRST HALF

[PLOL]

It's not a lock, but spurs moneyline is the closest thing to being a lock imo..

Taking Rockets -2. Thanks for the fade

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

VERY SMALL, CREI +18 with nova up 40-28 4 to go in the first half...

nova extremely hot, think that slows...

[PLOL]

Early NBA games (starting in about 20-25 min):

Washington +4 (moneyline of +160 or better ok)
Memphis under 203 (202.5 ok)

Sweating the Washington +4 with you, but the Memphis got pushed all the way down to 201

[Dan Druff]

Too small of a sample to know this.

Its possible thats the case but a certain yes or no would just be guessing. the only way to really know is to analyze thousands of picks etc. over years and then maybe you can find a trend that correlates certain times your winning or losing and even that data could be flawed

Bottom line is 57% is really really good. Anyone who has bet every pick is winning.

Well, if you are betting -110 you probably would have had to jump on the Druff bandwagon very early in the season to still be ahead. If you started tailing in November (which was only 2 weeks into the season) you would probably be down $$ at this point I am guessing.

Even at my very best record point (44-20, on the day before Thanksgiving), I'm still 97-85-3 since. That's a 53.29% winning percentage, which is a small winner betting at -110.

And that's taking me from my very best point in the season, which of course is arbitrary and unfair when evaluating my performance. I will admit I've had some regression since that hot start, and I've had some slumps which were not present through December 30, but the only extended point in the season where I'm down units is the period from December 31 to the present, and I'm a .500 picker in that stretch.

[Dan Druff]

Not going very well so far, for either of the first 2 picks.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

VERY SMALL, CREI +18 with nova up 40-28 4 to go in the first half...

nova extremely hot, think that slows...

sorry to whoever followed this...glad it was a tiny wager...CREI D has been shit which has helped NOVA shoot over 50% from 3...not a good idea to leave this team wide open from 3...

EDIT: we may have a shot in the backdoor, jay's calling off the dogs...

[Daly]

Hope you guys stacked up on this one..

[Dan Druff]

Memphis under probably going to lose
Houston under probably going to win

Washington started off way behind, then caught up, then got 7 points ahead, now are 1 down. Gonna be close.