*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[OSA]

Look at Pats now +4½ vs Rams tonight. On my book it has gone from +6½ —> +4½ with NO buy back at any point. That’s a big move.

I never would have chosen Pats of my own free will but this is a pretty sharp move. This is like Washington win last week.

When it is puke-worthy it’s usually right.

Cant remember last time I have bet against the Pats.

Last game looked like Rams developing a running game finally. Put that along with Kupp and Woods and its a potent offense. Pats Offense stinks. Newton is playing at 60% of his potential. Maybe its the system. Wont put more than 17 points on the board tonight.

30/31-17 Rams.

[Sanlmar]

Look at Pats now +4½ vs Rams tonight. On my book it has gone from +6½ —> +4½ with NO buy back at any point. That’s a big move.

I never would have chosen Pats of my own free will but this is a pretty sharp move. This is like Washington win last week.

When it is puke-worthy it’s usually right.

Cant remember last time I have bet against the Pats. However, that’s the kind of recency we are taught to fade. Sigh.

Last game looked like Rams developing a running game finally. Put that along with Kupp and Woods and its a potent offense. Pats Offense stinks. Newton is playing at 60% of his potential. Maybe its the system. Wont put more than 17 points on the board tonight.

30/31-17 Rams.

Last week was a beautiful thing with Pats. Isn’t that the kind of recency we are taught to fade? Sigh.

Even if Cam finally figured out his footwork in the pocket and threw on-target the Pats receivers have hands of stone. Rams rushing defense is pretty darn good. So what are you left with?

The sharps are better at analysis than me. Almost everyone is. But this line move tests my faith.

It’s worth noting that Belichick stayed out west all week and is playing in the same stadium as last week.

[Daly]

Look at Pats now +4½ vs Rams tonight. On my book it has gone from +6½ —> +4½ with NO buy back at any point. That’s a big move.

I never would have chosen Pats of my own free will but this is a pretty sharp move. This is like Washington win last week.

When it is puke-worthy it’s usually right.

Hate to be “that guy” here but that move isn’t nearly as meaningful as you think. 5.5 -> 4.5 is worth like .02. The chances of a NFL game Finishing with A 5 point margin is next to zero, and the prices on points reflect that. The move from 6.5 to 5.75 is the only part of that line move that is worth anything.

[Sanlmar]

Look at Pats now +4½ vs Rams tonight. On my book it has gone from +6½ —> +4½ with NO buy back at any point. That’s a big move.

I never would have chosen Pats of my own free will but this is a pretty sharp move. This is like Washington win last week.

When it is puke-worthy it’s usually right.

Hate to be “that guy” here but that move isn’t nearly as meaningful as you think. 5.5 -> 4.5 is worth like .02. The chances of a NFL game Finishing with A 5 point margin is next to zero, and the prices on points reflect that. The move from 6.5 to 5.75 is the only part of that line move that is worth anything.

I’m fading the move. Means little to me upon reflection. Rams tyvm.

Here come the 4’s!!!!!

Heritage flashed a 4 and now you have buy back. Good timing

[JeffDime]

When I think of the year Tommy had, and it certainly was a frustrating one. Not even making it to the tour championship. He wins this tournament, he wins the 3 million dollar purse plus the 2 million Race to Dubai, just like Rahm last year. He kind of washes all that off in one tournament.

He knows this place and he just feasts on Par 5s when he’s going well. The prices reflect the large incentive for the players in contention for the bonus prize pool. Reminds me a bit of nascar prices when the players who are still in the chase odds are reduced. I will join you Daly, it just a matter of how much.

One extra note...putting has been his Achilles heel this year. These Dubai greens are almost Resort Like (They are a resort). I would expect that not to be as much an issue on these slower, less sloped greens.

Right where we need him to be at the end of day 1.

I have some shares of Macintire as well so I’m super happy.

I ended up backing up Tommy with Hatton. Let’s hope one of the three get it done...but Let’s go Tommy! Nice to see him get off to a fast start. Last year he had to make up so much ground he came up a stroke short. Be nice to see him throw 4 consistent rounds together.

[Daly]

LPGA (I Know) J Ko +2200. This is their US Open. She spent most of the lockdown in Korea and still hung on to her #1 ranking. Came back and was in contention last week. Worth a few bucks at 20-1 or better. Not gonna play the QBE shootout. Prob put a few bucks on Bez and Sami for Dubai but nothing I feel strongly on. Very tough to handicap. Prices on the top 6 or 7 betting choices are awful.

Can tell already the rust got her.

We will know for sure when she plays the Easy course tomorrow.

[JeffDime]

LPGA (I Know) J Ko +2200. This is their US Open. She spent most of the lockdown in Korea and still hung on to her #1 ranking. Came back and was in contention last week. Worth a few bucks at 20-1 or better. Not gonna play the QBE shootout. Prob put a few bucks on Bez and Sami for Dubai but nothing I feel strongly on. Very tough to handicap. Prices on the top 6 or 7 betting choices are awful.

Can tell already the rust got her.

We will know for sure when she plays the Easy course tomorrow.

Yes, for sure. She didn’t birdie a single par 5 and was hoping she would fight her way back to even. Plus 2 not what you want but not a dagger by any means. The big favorite (Kim) is at +1 thanks to a quad. Ko is by no means out of it. I was going to say the same thing, she needs to shoot under par tomorrow on the easy course. I don’t think anyone is going to post real low. So if she shoots 70 or lower tomorrow we should have a sweat going into the weekend.

[OSA]

Look at Pats now +4½ vs Rams tonight. On my book it has gone from +6½ —> +4½ with NO buy back at any point. That’s a big move.

I never would have chosen Pats of my own free will but this is a pretty sharp move. This is like Washington win last week.

When it is puke-worthy it’s usually right.

Cant remember last time I have bet against the Pats.

Last game looked like Rams developing a running game finally. Put that along with Kupp and Woods and its a potent offense. Pats Offense stinks. Newton is playing at 60% of his potential. Maybe its the system. Wont put more than 17 points on the board tonight.

30/31-17 Rams.

Too generous giving them 17 points. Easy Money

[Sanlmar]

I have absolutely no idea what that line move to the Pats was about. Kinda ruined my afternoon as I thought I was missing something.

The Pats offered zero opposition. Never in doubt.

I don’t think I saw a single Pass Interference call which might be historic for modern football. Then again, who’s passing?

The ghost of badguy past would have enjoyed this.

[Daly]

Did a cliff dive on Sony Michel under 19.5 yards.

Nice last absolute garbage 4 plays..... didn’t even get the first down.

4.5K swing.

This is why we can’t have nice things

[Sanlmar]

Did a cliff dive on Sony Michel under 19.5 yards.

Nice last absolute garbage 4 plays..... didn’t even get the first down.

4.5K swing.

This is why we can’t have nice things

That rots.

I’m curious. Why a rushing under of any sort for a team that simply and literally cannot pass. What was the thinking?

I’ve said it before but this time there will be no happily ever here in Camelot. He’s through cause he can’t threw.

[Krypt]

Should've put 20k on the under and not 200.. this is why we can't have nice things, daly.

[Sanlmar]

Should've put 20k on the under and not 200.. this is why we can't have nice things, daly.

I had the same thought. I was afraid of a couple pick six or similar ugly turnovers in their own end. Both quarterbacks are turnover machines.

[Tellafriend]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/br_betting/status/1337250059352731648

[Daly]

Did a cliff dive on Sony Michel under 19.5 yards.

Nice last absolute garbage 4 plays..... didn’t even get the first down.

4.5K swing.

This is why we can’t have nice things

That rots.

I’m curious. Why a rushing under of any sort for a team that simply and literally cannot pass. What was the thinking?

I’ve said it before but this time there will be no happily ever here in Camelot. He’s through cause he can’t threw.

Becuase I thought he was going to have 4-5 attempts tops. And the attempts he got would be tough attempts
on third/fourth down & short. Hard to get 20 yards on 4 touches. Harder still vs the Rams front 7.

He had 5 touches for 13 yards with 1 min left when they got the ball back. They didn’t want to take a knee. They didn’t want to “damage” the starter. So we got 3 more meaningless touches for 8 yards.

Gross

“I love it when a plan comes together” turned into a prop bad beat.

It happens

[JeffDime]

I watched the coverage from Dubai last night and as usual it was frustrating. Tommy could of went real low but missed fairways and missed short putts. Just what’s going on this year with him. Hatton had his C stuff and is hanging in there. Reed is going to be super tough to beat. +140 is actually a decent price considering what I have seen. The greens are slow and he’s just putting fantastic. This course is so much easier than what he’s used to playing on. We’re going to need him to start struggling with the iron play and proximity to the hole to have a shot.

As for J Ko. She may fight back to even. The LPGA usually you can typically count on the lower ranked players who had a good Thursday and Friday to have the nerves really effect them on the weekend. Still drawing live.

As for the QBE shootout. Glad I stayed away. The longest shot on the board(Na/Ohair) are in first and the favorites (Wolff/Ancer)are in dead last. Can’t handicap a shootout.

Point of Personal Privelage- If Valimaki pulls this off somehow you will be able to steam dumplings over my head.

Hope you all are cashing tickets (virtual or otherwise) this weekend.

[Daly]

I watched the coverage from Dubai last night and as usual it was frustrating. Tommy could of went real low but missed fairways and missed short putts. Just what’s going on this year with him. Hatton had his C stuff and is hanging in there. Reed is going to be super tough to beat. +140 is actually a decent price considering what I have seen. The greens are slow and he’s just putting fantastic. This course is so much easier than what he’s used to playing on. We’re going to need him to start struggling with the iron play and proximity to the hole to have a shot.

As for J Ko. She may fight back to even. The LPGA usually you can typically count on the lower ranked players who had a good Thursday and Friday to have the nerves really effect them on the weekend. Still drawing live.

As for the QBE shootout. Glad I stayed away. The longest shot on the board(Na/Ohair) are in first and the favorites (Wolff/Ancer)are in dead last. Can’t handicap a shootout.

Point of Personal Privelage- If Valimaki pulls this off somehow you will be able to steam dumplings over my head.

Hope you all are cashing tickets (virtual or otherwise) this weekend.

Golf doesn’t really start until Saturday anyway. Thur/fri about not shitting the bed.

Agreed on all points but tomorrow will tell the tale.

[JeffDime]

Thur/fri about not shitting the bed.

I feel like all of 2020 has been about not shitting the bed.

[Daly]

Thur/fri about not shitting the bed.

I feel like all of 2020 has been about not shitting the bed.

Someone should tell Tommy that. We should have a shit the bed meme. What a wasted opportunity. He has even a close to average day overnight and he’s in the lead right now.

Only way I’d feel worse is if I backed Reed. He should be 5 shots clear and -400. That was beyond a Bedshit.

[Daly]

Going to be a light day outside of any props I can scrounge up.

Square city AKA Bama -19 1H

Akron +20 1h

Coastal -7 1H

I’m looking to add Wisky -2.5 and Florida -13.5 1h but haven’t pulled the trigger yet.