Micon 10k richer or scammed again?

[BetCheckBet]

http://www.donkdown.com/forum/watch-...on-t86344.html

So looks like Micon has won his bitcoin bet with Matthew N wright. Micon bet 10k that a fairly obv scammer (pirateat40) would not pay back investors. Yesterday the alleged scammer confirmed he is defaulting on 5 million dollars in payments.

So Micon should collect 10k no problem.

The question is... is Matthew N Wright a scammer himself? The guy has a pretty odd history and seems reckless with money. He phoned into ddradio last week and came across like a pretty big moron which begs the question how he had 100k to take bets (edit reports now say he has bet nearly 400k)?

Has Micon been freerolled? Or has micon's poor fortune finally changed?

[shortbuspoker]

Is Micon even able to pay 10K if he lost? Perhaps he was the one freerolling. Scamming a scammer can't be easy work.

[Muck Ficon]

So Micon has a kid on the way and he's making $10k bets? Unreal.

[Pooh]

http://www.donkdown.com/forum/watch-...on-t86344.html

So looks like Micon has won his bitcoin bet with Matthew N wright. Micon bet 10k that a fairly obv scammer (pirateat40) would not pay back investors. Yesterday the alleged scammer confirmed he is defaulting on 5 million dollars in payments.

So Micon should collect 10k no problem.

The question is... is Matthew N Wright a scammer himself? The guy has a pretty odd history and seems reckless with money. He phoned into ddradio last week and came across like a pretty big moron which begs the question how he had 100k to take bets (edit reports now say he has bet nearly 400k)?

Has Micon been freerolled? Or has micon's poor fortune finally changed?

Saying that guy came across as a pretty big moron might be an understatement. I heard the interview. I still thought it was for $2500...maybe only on Micons end.

[Muck Ficon]

Odds Micon gambles away all his money and has to use his "Hoosiers Rock" t-shirts as diapers?

[BetCheckBet]

http://www.donkdown.com/forum/watch-...on-t86344.html

So looks like Micon has won his bitcoin bet with Matthew N wright. Micon bet 10k that a fairly obv scammer (pirateat40) would not pay back investors. Yesterday the alleged scammer confirmed he is defaulting on 5 million dollars in payments.

So Micon should collect 10k no problem.

The question is... is Matthew N Wright a scammer himself? The guy has a pretty odd history and seems reckless with money. He phoned into ddradio last week and came across like a pretty big moron which begs the question how he had 100k to take bets (edit reports now say he has bet nearly 400k)?

Has Micon been freerolled? Or has micon's poor fortune finally changed?

Saying that guy came across as a pretty big moron might be an understatement. I heard the interview. I still thought it was for $2500...maybe only on Micons end.

Last I heard micon bet 500 bitcoins (current value 5k) and then increased to another 500 (10k total)

[Pooh]

Odds Micon gambles away all his money and has to use his "Hoosiers Rock" t-shirts as diapers?

Odds the kids actually his?

[tony bagadonuts]

Micon didn't escrow the bet, makes you wonder.

Zero point zero chance he actually collects.

[Muck Ficon]

Odds Micon gambles away all his money and has to use his "Hoosiers Rock" t-shirts as diapers?

Odds the kids actually his?

[BetCheckBet]

Micon's reply....

I explained this in chat on Seals last night -

Lets say I'm going to pay Matt if he wins every time.

Lets say Matt is only going to pay me some of the time, given he is relatively unknown by me in terms of how much I can trust him.

I feel this bet was so much in my favor, that even if Matt only pays a small % of the time I have a +EV bet.

We shall see soon.

Amazing. Micon is pretty much saying he is totally fine with being scammed here (as long as the scamming does not result in -EV situation). Its analagous to claiming it is ok for your opponent to cheat in poker as long as you beat him in long term.

[Muck Ficon]

Micon's reply....

I explained this in chat on Seals last night -

Lets say I'm going to pay Matt if he wins every time.

Lets say Matt is only going to pay me some of the time, given he is relatively unknown by me in terms of how much I can trust him.

I feel this bet was so much in my favor, that even if Matt only pays a small % of the time I have a +EV bet.

We shall see soon.

Amazing. Micon is pretty much saying he is totally fine with being scammed here (as long as the scamming does not result in -EV situation). Its analagous to claiming it is ok for your opponent to cheat in poker as long as you beat him in long term.

Wow, that may be the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard. Anyone who wonders why Micon is broke, just read that statement.

[DropKick]

Micon's reply....

I explained this in chat on Seals last night -

Lets say I'm going to pay Matt if he wins every time.

Lets say Matt is only going to pay me some of the time, given he is relatively unknown by me in terms of how much I can trust him.

I feel this bet was so much in my favor, that even if Matt only pays a small % of the time I have a +EV bet.

We shall see soon.

[tony bagadonuts]

Micon's reply....

I explained this in chat on Seals last night -

Lets say I'm going to pay Matt if he wins every time.

Lets say Matt is only going to pay me some of the time, given he is relatively unknown by me in terms of how much I can trust him.

I feel this bet was so much in my favor, that even if Matt only pays a small % of the time I have a +EV bet.

We shall see soon.

Amazing. Micon is pretty much saying he is totally fine with being scammed here (as long as the scamming does not result in -EV situation). Its analagous to claiming it is ok for your opponent to cheat in poker as long as you beat him in long term.

[Jasep]

I think the only way you wouldn't want to escrow a 10k bet with someone who is not well known and you have done business with in the past is if some of the time you are going to free roll the bet as well

So if randombitcoinguy is free rolling 2/10 times

and Micon is free rolling 6/10 times

than it is a massive +EV situation for micon...

He lead off by saying "Lets Say" I am paying every time...

like its a hypothetical

[tony bagadonuts]

I think the only way you wouldn't want to escrow a 10k bet with someone who is not well known and you have done business with in the past is if some of the time you are going to free roll the bet as well

So if randombitcoinguy is free rolling 2/10 times

and Micon is free rolling 6/10 times

than it is a massive +EV situation for micon...

He lead off by saying "Lets Say" I am paying every time...

like its a hypothetical

Spot on Jasep. Micon basically admits that he was free rolling this wager. It's the only way his post makes any sense.

[DirtyB]

I think the only way you wouldn't want to escrow a 10k bet with someone who is not well known and you have done business with in the past is if some of the time you are going to free roll the bet as well

So if randombitcoinguy is free rolling 2/10 times

and Micon is free rolling 6/10 times

than it is a massive +EV situation for micon...

He lead off by saying "Lets Say" I am paying every time...

like its a hypothetical

Spot on Jasep. Micon basically admits that he was free rolling this wager. It's the only way his post makes any sense.

I asked him about it last week and he insisted that he intended on paying if he lost.

So...you guys all left DD to get away from Micon...and then spend your time talking about Micon. That makes sense.

[BetCheckBet]

Spot on Jasep. Micon basically admits that he was free rolling this wager. It's the only way his post makes any sense.

I asked him about it last week and he insisted that he intended on paying if he lost.

So...you guys all left DD to get away from Micon...and then spend your time talking about Micon. That makes sense.

FTR I don;t think Micon intended to scam at all. Might have a hard time paying but doubt he would scam. What I find interesting is that Micon seems to accept that he will get scammed here.

That aside this whole pirate thing is extremely fascinating. Then throw in the bet my matthew n wright along with the current instability of the markets and you have a very interesting issue to follow. I actually wish Micon spoke more abotu it because its the first interesting thing I have heard come out of his mouth in quite some time.

[SetofKs]

"3) no escrow. Matt is a trusted member of the bitcoin community. You can listen to him on DonkDown radio last Wed explain his side of the bet"

This was micons original reason for not wanting to escrow. Now he says "even if there is only small percent chance that he'll pay me this was hugely +EV." Makes no sense not to push for an escrow here, I don't think. Does he know this Matt guy's real name and info, or is he just betting 10k with an anonymous, but respected bitcoin guy?

[tony bagadonuts]

Spot on Jasep. Micon basically admits that he was free rolling this wager. It's the only way his post makes any sense.

I asked him about it last week and he insisted that he intended on paying if he lost.

So...you guys all left DD to get away from Micon...and then spend your time talking about Micon. That makes sense.

I still post at DD Barry so I don't know what you're talking about. Micon's bitcoin bet is a hot forum topic so what's wrong with discussing it?

[Corrigan]

Not sure what is unsound about Micon's argument, and is the same logic that let Eric Lingren play fantasy sports for big $ year after year (he is such a big fish that even if he only pays 66% of the time or something its still +EV to have him in there) He's just building risk into his EV calcs.

Pretty much any risk-based assessment uses this logic