Given the choice between laying 100-1 on JB winning CA I'd prefer to lay 7,8, or 9-1 on Biden winning the popular vote
Lot less risk for roughly the same value
IMO trump has about as much chance to win the national vote as he does of winning CA so why not lay 9 or 10-1 instead of 100-1?
But I don't think he is
That's my point
If Biden loses the popular vote Then CA would have to play a pivotal role in him doing so.
Personally I never lay huge odds on any bet but that's just me . I'd rather find a +ev bet where I'm the one with the large payday if the unexpected happens
disclaimer- I'm a professional poker player and a decent gambler but not a professional sports bettor
Which Party Will Win The Popular Vote In The 2020 Presidential Election?
11/2/20
11:00 PM
Popular Vote Winner
Democrats -700
Republicans +425
Total votes tabulated by the Federal Election Commission for all states and the District of Columbia.
US 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION -TO WIN POPULAR VOTE
Joe Biden
-871
Donald Trump
+564
Kamala Harris
+14500
Mike Pence
+200000
Have a hunch? Bet a bunch!
I can’t put a number on which is the better bet by the numbers. I don’t think Trump has a fucking prayer at winning the popular vote but at -800 I’m going to pass because shit happens.
Now with that being said if you offered me -800 on California I’d jump on it.
Trump wins the popular vote
Regardless of whether he wins the Electoral College
3 in 100
Biden wins the popular vote
Regardless of whether he wins the Electoral College
97 in 100
Trump wins more than 50% of the popular vote
Regardless of whether he wins the Electoral College
2 in 100
Biden wins more than 50% of the popular vote
Regardless of whether he wins the Electoral College
95 in 100
Trump wins in a landslide
Defined as winning the popular vote by a double-digit margin
<1 in 100
Biden wins in a landslide
Defined as winning the popular vote by a double-digit margin
27 in 100
Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College <1 in 100
Biden wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College 8 in 100
No one wins the Electoral College
No candidate gets 270 electoral votes and Congress decides the election
<1 in 100
Trump wins at least one state that Clinton won in 2016 25 in 100
Biden wins at least one state that Trump won in 2016 98 in 100
The map stays exactly the same as it was in 2016
Each candidate wins exactly the same states that his party won in 2016
<1 in 100
The election hinges on a recount
Candidates are within half a percentage point in one or more decisive states
4 in 100
But sure go ahead and lay 100-1 instead of 8-1
I wouldn't bet either but like I said if I were to bet Id bet the 8.-1 on national popular vote
Betonline
https://www.betonline.ag/news-room/p...-election-day/Since Monday, 85 percent of the presidential bets have been on Trump, which has greatly swung the numbers in terms of liability. As of this post, BetOnline stands to lose a sum in the low seven figures if Trump is re-elected.
“Political stances aside, we’re all rooting for the favorite next week,” Mason said. “That’s uncommon in our industry,but we need Biden in a big way.”
The 2020 Presidential Election is close to becoming the biggest decision in BetOnline’s 20-year history of bookmaking. The political betting markets this year have already surpassed the straight bet handle for Super Bowl LIV. In total, the website has booked an amount in the mid eight-figure range.
Last edited by Sanlmar; 11-01-2020 at 10:47 PM.
i think texas to biden is a pipedream. but while nothing is a lock, all the data i've seen and read makes a florida win seem like cake win, and you're still getting good odds. things did not turn out well for the dems in the early voting in some parts. so much so that it might be already over. i lose big if trump doesn't win florida
ariz is also trending trump......the biden peeps have their heads down in key states. i love seeing under performance from key demographics that he needs to win
and my god......to see all those crowds in NC. i mean, c'mon. a line 1/2 mile long line to get in to see trump.............wow..
as for penn. the overall feeling and momentum that i get is a spirited fighting chance that can go either way right now
polls..lol..just look at the rally's......also every other peep in fla has a truck with a trump flag..
Plop where you seeing the most value on predictit on election eve?
Hard to say without my crystal ball. The site may not even be functional. In general, I think it's wise to stay away from trading during the election. I won't be doing much of it. The swings happen too fast and the spreads get too wide. Definitely don't make a trade based on something the public is seeing on CNN.
One of PLOL’s greatest gifts that keeps on giving has been this podcast.
I see another one has dropped. Check out this description. Such beautiful prose.
However, one of my biggest disagreements with Zoltar is over learning, which I am opposed to. This is due to the fact that Zoltar is one of the top researchers in political gambling, at least when it comes to doing deep dives on conspiracy theories and un-sourced internet stories, which are exactly the same things that 99 percent of Floridians use to make their voting choices.
https://starspangledgamblers.com/202...oject-is-here/
Are you still as confident as you were? Like I just listened to your star spangled gambler podcast and the trump dude was highly confident and the other dudes said nothing and then it was like they just decided to cancel the podcast and say fuck it.
I am watching the markets, and looking at the models where Nate is. 89/10 and stuff like the economist is 19/20 Biden wins and someone is going to be wrong in the most major of ways possible. Trump bettors are clearly flooding the market with money and either they’re going to be slaughtered or no one is ever going to take a poll seriously again. Are you still all in? Are you buying more if so? Biden just keeps getting cheaper. Never seen such a disconnect. Even last time wasn’t this much of a disconnect .
The chance of him winning the popular vote is high, but not as high as winning CA, which is a lock. It's greater than 99% that he wins California.
This is a weird election for many reasons. Turnout will likely be a lot higher. You'd think the turnout would favor Biden, but it's not certain. It's possible that this "silent majority" really exists, and they'll show up for Trump. It's much more likely Biden wins the popular vote, yes, but it's not the same as CA, where Biden is so far ahead that he basically can't lose.
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