*** Official Political Wagering Thread ***

[BCR]

there's no sweat. biden isn't gonna take any of those. maybe NC but that's been slowly trending trump for quite some time, so i expect trumpy to take it.

if dems think they have a chance to win those states they also have to worry about is a few other states that peeps are randomly just giving to biden where he's a 3-1 fav...but those might be closer than imagined.

make no mistake. trump has to take florida in order to be in the hunt, and i think he will win that state. if he pulls a comeback as a 2-1 dawg in penn, biden is easily in trouble.

i like trumps chances a whole lot to win the whole thing if he takes both fla and penn.....and that also includes him winning the states he's suppose to win.... i think fla is in the bag. penn might be the whole key to the election. there are some other combos that give trump the nod without penn, but those paths looks improbable.


...............so lol @ nate silver giving biden a 90% chance..get bent, silver

Based on early voting returns it looks very likely Trump wins FL. Most states are 60-40 Democrat early voting/absentee, FL is basically 50/50.

Another state I think Trump has wrapped up is TX. People talking about the huge early returns in Texas don’t realize that 90% of that is in person early voting. I think that isn’t the same as Democrat absentee ground game.

I take no strong position on this race. I never have. I was the guy saying we might be better off as Dems if Biden loses through primaries up until Covid. I think Biden wins, but not any strong certainty.

I took Biden 295 by simply adding NC to the 3 key northern battlegrounds and adding NE 02. I think I should have went 294, but I had already posted so I just left it. I don’t expect that extra Maine vote. I kind of picked a number which allowed for 1 of Az or Nc, with me personally liking NC almost as much.

The thing is, the all markets have Trump overpriced according to the data, yet underpriced on margins of victory and things of that nature. Like I don’t think Ohio is correlated heavily to anything, other than just other older white states that don’t have high Hispanic populations, but you can get .45 on Trump over 3.5%. You can get Trump for .29 at 6% or over.


Trump won Iowa by 9.4%, Ohio by over 8% in the same electron he just squeaked by in the big 3, so if you can get over even money for a victory about 5 points lower than last time in Ohio, and over 3-1 for a victory that’s 3.4% less than he received in Iowa last time. If you believe in some systemic polling error, and it wouldn’t shock me at all, these seem like they should be the easiest bets ever.

I don’t believe in how goes Ohio, or Iowa, or any one state, there goes the country. I do think if Trump wins Iowa by 4, and Ohio by 3, which is where the market is putting it, that he has a big problem in all those states he won by less than 1%. There are other factors such as increased voter registration, and the biggest imo, which is increased rural voter registration and participation, which I think is the key to any Trump victory, but those conditions exist in those states also very heavily with large rural areas.

So even in a Trump saturated betting market where I have read double the money is on Trump, he is either underpriced on margins, or I’m going to need someone to explain the logic of him bleeding off half his support in Iowa and Ohio yet winning the other three more Dem friendly states that he won by under 1%.

I added NC just because they have Dem governor, which helps in election matters, got the SC ruling, etc. I picked a number that’s close if he wins one of NC or Az, but not both.

Anyone thinking Trump is drawing live should be taking up those margin bets in Iowa or Ohio if they really believe he’s drawing live, wouldn’t you agree?

[tgull]

I know I have ribbed you on this is the past, but Trump is going to surge in Ohio by at least 8 maybe 10, but if he wins by 3 in Ohio it's going to be a Biden rout nationwide. This whole Biden winning Texas, Georgia, NC is fiction. Texas is patently absurd going for Biden. Give me a break, Ted Cruz won quite easily against a candidate that outraised him by tens of millions in 2018. Florida is solidly in Trump's corner now, that is a huge red flag for Dems.

I am getting the sense Trump has gained momentum, and a lot of it the last couple weeks. I mean, people are waiting outside for his rallys in 40 degree temps by the thousands, in Covid nonetheless. I know two people personally that voted for Clinton that are voting for Trump. They are just tired of being lectured to by left wing bureaucrats. Yes, I get it, anecdotal, but I think this whole Suburban woman thing is just a myth. No suburban woman I know is going to want to pay more in taxes and money rules the day for everyone.

I think Trump is going to get a pass on the virus. I just think people are getting used to it.

If Trump wins, I will say this, the owner of the Trafalgar Group, Cahaly, is going to become extraordinary rich. I mean hundreds of millions.

[BCR]

I know I have ribbed you on this is the past, but Trump is going to surge in Ohio by at least 8 maybe 10, but if he wins by 3 in Ohio it's going to be a Biden rout nationwide. This whole Biden winning Texas, Georgia, NC is fiction. Texas is patently absurd going for Biden. Give me a break, Ted Cruz won quite easily against a candidate that outraised him by tens of millions in 2018. Florida is solidly in Trump's corner now, that is a huge red flag for Dems.

I am getting the sense Trump has gained momentum, and a lot of it the last couple weeks. I mean, people are waiting outside for his rallys in 40 degree temps by the thousands, in Covid nonetheless. I know two people personally that voted for Clinton that are voting for Trump. They are just tired of being lectured to by left wing bureaucrats. Yes, I get it, anecdotal, but I think this whole Suburban woman thing is just a myth. No suburban woman I know is going to want to pay more in taxes and money rules the day for everyone.

I think Trump is going to get a pass on the virus. I just think people are getting used to it.

If Trump wins, I will say this, the owner of the Trafalgar Group, Cahaly, is going to become extraordinary rich. I mean hundreds of millions.

I know a man of your means doesn’t just click buttons for pennies, but logic dictates Trump only wins if this is 2016 rerun all over again, or worse, in which case $1700 on Ohio over 3.5 and Iowa o 6 should be your bets.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

yo PLOP...i very much understand risking a dollar to make a penny is usually fucking dumb, but i mean buying NO for trump here has to be worth it right?

[tgull]

I know I have ribbed you on this is the past, but Trump is going to surge in Ohio by at least 8 maybe 10, but if he wins by 3 in Ohio it's going to be a Biden rout nationwide. This whole Biden winning Texas, Georgia, NC is fiction. Texas is patently absurd going for Biden. Give me a break, Ted Cruz won quite easily against a candidate that outraised him by tens of millions in 2018. Florida is solidly in Trump's corner now, that is a huge red flag for Dems.

I am getting the sense Trump has gained momentum, and a lot of it the last couple weeks. I mean, people are waiting outside for his rallys in 40 degree temps by the thousands, in Covid nonetheless. I know two people personally that voted for Clinton that are voting for Trump. They are just tired of being lectured to by left wing bureaucrats. Yes, I get it, anecdotal, but I think this whole Suburban woman thing is just a myth. No suburban woman I know is going to want to pay more in taxes and money rules the day for everyone.

I think Trump is going to get a pass on the virus. I just think people are getting used to it.

If Trump wins, I will say this, the owner of the Trafalgar Group, Cahaly, is going to become extraordinary rich. I mean hundreds of millions.

I know a man of your means doesn’t just click buttons for pennies, but logic dictates Trump only wins if this is 2016 rerun all over again, or worse, in which case $1700 on Ohio over 3.5 and Iowa o 6 should be your bets.

I have sworn off deposits for 2020 and 2021. I am down tens of thousands this year, I really don't want to add it up, I just wrote it off and paid myself back with a condo sale. Betting $200 a horse race every day over a period of months catches up real quick, I must have bet a 1,000 races. Yes, I can peel a $5000 profit I am sure on the election, but it's not like I am going to cash it out. I'll just transfer it to my sports betting account and lose it. I have several thousand in my sports betting account left and I will hopefully just grind it out until the college playoff and see what happens. But I am not making any more gambling deposits any time soon. I sleep a lot better now, not waking up at 4am trying to add up my losses.

[PLOL]

yo PLOP...i very much understand risking a dollar to make a penny is usually fucking dumb, but i mean buying NO for trump here has to be worth it right?

It's not the highest ROI play, but it's free money, yes. Just keep in mind, if you want to play that strategy it doesn't make sense to deposit, bet that market, and then cash out. It's better to bet that market, and then cycle that money through other free money markets later on before cashing out. This is because you have to pay a 5% withdrawal fee. Also, make sure you deposit with a CC that gives you the highest cash back percentage. I'm getting 2.25% on my deposits.

[PLOL]

My friend made a spreadsheet of the ROI in various markets when looking at the Nate price vs the PI price (though from a pedestrian standpoint I think Nate's price is a little rich in OH, but it's still great value). This spreadsheet takes rake in to account (but not the withdrawal fee).

[mulva]

unreal

gamblebot penis actually asked plop if it is was smart to risk 1 dollar to win 1 penny and plop actually said yes.

then gamble penis said thank you.


you guys are really smart

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

unreal

gamblebot penis actually asked plop if it is was smart to risk 1 dollar to win 1 penny and plop actually said yes.

then gamble penis said thank you.


you guys are really smart

usually i would agree with you, but this isn't sports where a huge underdog always has the chance to win...

is there ever any shot that trump would actually win the west coast? i would say the odds of him carrying any western state are sub 1%...so if you make me lay a better price than the chance of shit happening ill always take it...

[mulva]

unreal

gamblebot penis actually asked plop if it is was smart to risk 1 dollar to win 1 penny and plop actually said yes.

then gamble penis said thank you.


you guys are really smart

usually i would agree with you, but this isn't sports where a huge underdog always has the chance to win...

is there ever any shot that trump would actually win the west coast? i would say the odds of him carrying any western state are sub 1%...so if you make me lay a better price than the chance of shit happening ill always take it...

thanks for explaining why you think wagering 100 to win 1 is smart

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

usually i would agree with you, but this isn't sports where a huge underdog always has the chance to win...

is there ever any shot that trump would actually win the west coast? i would say the odds of him carrying any western state are sub 1%...so if you make me lay a better price than the chance of shit happening ill always take it...

thanks for explaining why you think wagering 100 to win 1 is smart

no problem...ill collect the money from the bet and spend it on a nice dinner at ruth chris steakhouse...

i bet on the weather today and made a nice chunk, so i think i know what im doing...

[mulva]

However, if Biden loses PA he cannot win Ohio. It's basically impossible.

saying this is also equally as bad than saying to lay 100 to win 1

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

im always up for wagering so if you want to escrow with druff ill take the Dems in Cali and you can take the Republicans...

[mulva]

im always up for wagering so if you want to escrow with druff ill take the Dems in Cali and you can take the Republicans...

so let me get this straight. you first ask if you should lay 100 to get 1, and once the guru of the abstract says yes you dig deep to find the courage and fortitude to turn it into a reality by betting it, and by saying, look. i'm putting my money where my mouth is, while trying to talk yourself into it being smart

[PLOL]

unreal

gamblebot penis actually asked plop if it is was smart to risk 1 dollar to win 1 penny and plop actually said yes.

then gamble penis said thank you.


you guys are really smart

Is it smart to take a 7% risk free bond that pays out in a few days? Hmm... let me ask my financial advisor.

[PLOL]

im always up for wagering so if you want to escrow with druff ill take the Dems in Cali and you can take the Republicans...

so let me get this straight. you first ask if you should lay 100 to get 1, and once the guru of the abstract says yes you dig deep to find the courage and fortitude to turn it into a reality by betting it, and by saying, look. i'm putting my money where my mouth is, while trying to talk yourself into it being smart

It's 12 to 1. And if you want to be Cali for Trump at 12 to 1, sure I'm happy to book that for you.

[mulva]

so let me get this straight. you first ask if you should lay 100 to get 1, and once the guru of the abstract says yes you dig deep to find the courage and fortitude to turn it into a reality by betting it, and by saying, look. i'm putting my money where my mouth is, while trying to talk yourself into it being smart

It's 12 to 1. And if you want to be Cali for Trump at 12 to 1, sure I'm happy to book that for you.

stupid advice for a stupid bet

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

im always up for wagering so if you want to escrow with druff ill take the Dems in Cali and you can take the Republicans...

so let me get this straight. you first ask if you should lay 100 to get 1, and once the guru of the abstract says yes you dig deep to find the courage and fortitude to turn it into a reality by betting it, and by saying, look. i'm putting my money where my mouth is, while trying to talk yourself into it being smart

i mean i know you probably have the highest IQ on this board and are the subject expert on every topic in the history of humanity, but that i am not...PLOP follows politics so, yes, i will ask somebody who follows shit more than i do if im missing anything...PLOP told me i wasnt so im good with making the wager...doesnt appear that it would be really worth it with the predictit fees...

i am more than willing to escrow any action with druff if anybody wants to take the republican side of things in the presidential race in california, oregon, or washington state...those pesky predictit fees would really eat into my profits...

[PLOL]

You can ignore the most recent Emerson polls, even though they're good for Biden. They're pretty transparently herding at the end to keep up their 538 A- rating like they always do. Very sad and pathetic. They are NOT an "A-" pollster.

[mulva]

You can ignore the most recent Emerson polls, even though they're good for Biden. They're pretty transparently herding at the end to keep up their 538 A- rating like they always do. Very sad and pathetic. They are NOT an "A-" pollster.

thanks for the news flash saying we can ignore certain polls.