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Thread: *** Official Political Wagering Thread ***

  1. #101
    Diamond
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    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post
    Portfolio Value $16,251.32

    Gain/Loss + $2,227.05


    how u sittin, ploptrash??
    Holding my ground fighting off this MAGA-wave

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    Portfolio Value $18,124.69
    Gain/Loss + $3,800.42



    u cant be up more than $300 gimpy


    Portfolio Value$18,745.98
    Gain/Loss + $4,421.71



    :TRAIN

  2. #102
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    im officially up in every market. i f'd up early maxxing out on WI, always been a pain in the ass

    Which party will win Wisconsin in the 2020 presidential election?
    Market Investment $1,699.64
    Gain/Loss +$5.30

  3. #103
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Holding my ground fighting off this MAGA-wave

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    Portfolio Value $18,124.69
    Gain/Loss + $3,800.42



    u cant be up more than $300 gimpy
    Be sure to hold it all until after election day to maximize profit. Don't lose your balls and sell out early.

    Portfolio Value$18,745.98
    Gain/Loss + $4,421.71



    :TRAIN

    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL

  4. #104
    Platinum garrett's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post
    im officially up in every market. i f'd up early maxxing out on WI, always been a pain in the ass

    Which party will win Wisconsin in the 2020 presidential election?
    Market Investment $1,699.64
    Gain/Loss +$5.30

    Wisconsion is Republican generally, now this election could it go Democratic it could I guess lol.

    Probably wont but it is possible maybe. Wisconsin is wealthy to rich, white American place in a pretty good State actually, a Red State, so this Wisconsin could go 'Blue' is actually funny lol... Wisconsin is a 'well-to-do', wealthy white group there in Wisconsin lol.... Wisconsin is not a City State either perse-, like a New Jersey, small but lotta big cities, that's not true of Wisky at all actually. Its much more down home America in ways I guess. The real fabric that is that of The U.S.A I guess maybe lol...

  5. #105
    aka PP23 badguy23's Avatar
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    I'm sure this is known already by the people who need to know it here.

    Biden dropped paid advertising in Texas today




    Druff knew a few chicks from True Poker that were from San Antonio Texas.

    All Fat Bitches live in San Antonio and Druff switched them to Republicans.

    That was are only shot San Antonio..

    Fucking 900 #s and Chat Rooms from the late 80's Early 90's killed the dream.

    At least we still have Greenfield in Iowa

     
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      gimmick:
    Last edited by badguy23; 10-25-2020 at 03:34 PM.

  6. #106
    Diamond PLOL's Avatar
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    Thank you, Texas!
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  7. #107
    Gold abrown83's Avatar
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    @PLOL - I have an interesting data point I found.

    https://sos.iowa.gov/youth/poll/results.aspx

    30,000+ Iowa High School and Middle School students

    First, LOL Kanye

    Second, we know kids tend to have their parents political beliefs or are a bit more Liberal.

    Third, not sure it means a ton but I think it's a larger sample than any of the polls and runs counter to most of the other Iowa polling.

    Curious your thoughts?

  8. #108
    Diamond PLOL's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post
    @PLOL - I have an interesting data point I found.

    https://sos.iowa.gov/youth/poll/results.aspx

    30,000+ Iowa High School and Middle School students

    First, LOL Kanye

    Second, we know kids tend to have their parents political beliefs or are a bit more Liberal.

    Third, not sure it means a ton but I think it's a larger sample than any of the polls and runs counter to most of the other Iowa polling.

    Curious your thoughts?
    It's a very silly poll. Higher sample size does not equal greater accuracy in polling. That's not what makes a poll scientific. If I recall correctly Clinton won the Nickelodeon "Kids Pick The President" Election, which they used to tout as being super predictive lol. Having said that, I am not surprised that a bunch of children voted for the candidate who acts like a child.

    Edit: I just looked it up and there were 90,000 "votes" in the Nickelodeon kids poll. Biden won by 6 points. Do I think that's relevant? No, I do not.
    Last edited by PLOL; 10-29-2020 at 08:38 AM.
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  9. #109
    Diamond PLOL's Avatar
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    Btw, I like the "YES" side here on "Will either candidate concede the election by November 17th". Trading near 50/50. I would dump it when the returns come in if it goes to like 85.

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6906


    Here's the key phrasing in the rules:
    PredictIt’s determination shall be based on either of the following: a) a public, unconditional and unambiguous concession by Trump himself or Biden himself or b) media reports, that PredictIt in its sole discretion deems reliable, of an unconditional and unambiguous concession by either candidate personally.

    I think Trump will try to put a giant asterisk on his loss but will still concede, and then a bunch of people will argue over the wording of "unconditional and unambiguous". This is why I would dump it before expiration. But I don't think there will be a drawn out court battle, which seems to be the intent of the market.
    Last edited by PLOL; 10-29-2020 at 06:55 AM.
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  10. #110
    Diamond PLOL's Avatar
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    Bovada still has Biden +125 in Florida. If the line in Florida hasn't moved on your book, you may want to go bet it NOW. It's likely to move down as soon as the books price in the Monmouth and Marist polls that dropped today.
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  11. #111
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Bovada still has Biden +125 in Florida. If the line in Florida hasn't moved on your book, you may want to go bet it NOW. It's likely to move down as soon as the books price in the Monmouth and Marist polls that dropped today.

    I would have guessed you would have been saying to jump on Ohio

     
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      PLOL: that too, but it's more gambley and Qpac is a lower quality pollster

  12. #112
    Diamond PLOL's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Bovada still has Biden +125 in Florida. If the line in Florida hasn't moved on your book, you may want to go bet it NOW. It's likely to move down as soon as the books price in the Monmouth and Marist polls that dropped today.
    Hope you listened. It dropped to +110 (still good value btw)

     
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      Sanlmar: I am in silent majority following Plop
      
      jsearles22: I just got it at +120. Fired 2 units. #inPlopwetrust
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  13. #113
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Placed some pinata (randomly assigned) bets for giggles on Trump EVs. Basically bet $5 each time and I win 500 if it comes true.

    Here are the values I have, is there any chance I win $500 or did I lose $90?

    Less than 80
    140-142
    224-226
    260-262
    296-298
    302-304
    305-307
    311-313
    329-331
    335-337
    344-346
    368-370
    374-376
    392-394
    425-427
    428-430

  14. #114
    Diamond PLOL's Avatar
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    I guess this could happen. Though 259 is way more likely as Nebraska's 2nd district is very likely to go to Biden. Fun sweat tho. There's always surprises on election day that could make the map go wonky and randomly hit one of your brackets.

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    Last edited by PLOL; 10-30-2020 at 09:27 AM.
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  15. #115
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Name:  70178A10-8D9F-489B-9C69-1DCC2CF8B2B9.png
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    Entertaining podcast. Funny and likable hosts. Thx again, PLOL

    Do you have any other podcast you’d recommend? I am being very careful about getting turned around by the CNN’s and Fox.

    You hear Bezos is a possible CNN buyer? My my

  16. #116
    Diamond PLOL's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Name:  70178A10-8D9F-489B-9C69-1DCC2CF8B2B9.png
Views: 247
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    Entertaining podcast. Funny and likable hosts. Thx again, PLOL

    Do you have any other podcast you’d recommend? I am being very careful about getting turned around by the CNN’s and Fox.

    You hear Bezos is a possible CNN buyer? My my
    Glad you enjoyed, I agree the MAGA episode was a good one. Always good to hear the logic of the people on the other side of a lot of my trades to validate or cast doubt on my own theories. I also stay away from CNN and network news usually. Every other person they have on is a surrogate trying to spin for their side. Most of it is just noise. I didn't know Bezos was looking to buy CNN. That's probably not great

    I know Luckbox Magazine also has a political trading podcast. I haven't listened to it, but somebody in my InTrade refugees group (@ssupak) talked about being on it. Can't recommend it because I haven't listened yet, but I would imagine it's good if you're itching to listen to something similar:
    https://luckboxmagazine.com/tpt/epis...-and-subscribe
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  17. #117
    Diamond mulva's Avatar
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    for all the stupid reach bets and odds you get on either candidate all you have to do is bet trump to take florida to bail out every other awful bet you made.
    Quote Originally Posted by bottomset_69 View Post
    Johnny Manziel will be the 1st pick in the draft. I truly believe not only will Johnny Manziel be rookie of the year, quite possibly he will be MVP as his style will shock defensive coordinators. Manziel may only be 6 feet tall, but he has size 15 feet. And he has HUGE hands. I know some NFL scouts so I know what I am talking about.



  18. #118
    Diamond PLOL's Avatar
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    Last edited by PLOL; 10-31-2020 at 10:51 AM.
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  19. #119
    Diamond mulva's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    I guess this could happen. Though 259 is way more likely as Nebraska's 2nd district is very likely to go to Biden. Fun sweat tho. There's always surprises on election day that could make the map go wonky and randomly hit one of your brackets.

    Name:  Screen Shot 2020-10-30 at 12.08.10 PM.png
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    if you guess this could happen you must be lol'ng at 538.

    and if you could guess this could happen you're also sweating penn which will put trump over the top
    Quote Originally Posted by bottomset_69 View Post
    Johnny Manziel will be the 1st pick in the draft. I truly believe not only will Johnny Manziel be rookie of the year, quite possibly he will be MVP as his style will shock defensive coordinators. Manziel may only be 6 feet tall, but he has size 15 feet. And he has HUGE hands. I know some NFL scouts so I know what I am talking about.



  20. #120
    Diamond PLOL's Avatar
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    This is a /very/ bad Iowa poll for Biden. Selzer/DMR is the gold standard for Iowa polling.



    Quote Originally Posted by mulva View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    I guess this could happen. Though 259 is way more likely as Nebraska's 2nd district is very likely to go to Biden. Fun sweat tho. There's always surprises on election day that could make the map go wonky and randomly hit one of your brackets.

    Name:  Screen Shot 2020-10-30 at 12.08.10 PM.png
Views: 457
Size:  118.5 KB
    if you guess this could happen you must be lol'ng at 538.

    and if you could guess this could happen you're also sweating penn which will put trump over the top
    I don't think that's what will happen, bro. I'm saying it's the most realistic scenario for Simp to his his 3 point EV margin bet. I think FL, NC, AZ, and NE-02 will go blue.
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

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