Originally Posted by
nightmarefish
All good points. Back to my original post, we're 18 months into this so you would think they would be studying these scenarios and be finding some answers. There's something there.
I have been watching the trends and they are worse than last year. I think the problem is you’re trying to study a moving and changing target to a degree with these variants. Everyone I talk to says you’re seeing a different patient this year. Younger, not as heavy, etc. You said the same. Daly said the same. Idk if it’s because it’s almost entirely unvaccinated, or because this variant is tougher.
My friend in Charlotte had a week off and came back and she said she actually has a few vaccinated in ICU for first time in months. Makes me think they are making bad call with boosters. She said she’d let me know if they turned it around quicker than the unvaccinated. They haven’t got to ventilator stage, but certainly serious illness if in ICU.
I’ve seen people comment delta isn’t as deadly. I don’t know how you’d arrive at that conclusion? Not saying it’s wrong, but I’ve seen the average age of death has lowered by 12 years this year over last.
Most likely because of elderly being higher rates of vaccinated. Right now, if you look at last years summer peaks in Florida and Texas, things are worse now. And they’re lasting longer. It was done a month earlier last year.
So if it’s average victim is an unvaccinated person 12 years younger than last year, and the numbers in Florida and Texas are higher than summer peak despite even there, almost half the population vaccinated, I’d have to think this variant is way deadlier and we are in deep trouble come Thanksgiving/Christmas peak if it mirrors last year.
At least we had a months long break between summer and that period last year. If you look at average death this week over last year same week, it’s much worse right now. And we are almost into October and run the risk of places like Florida just starting to lower right when it’s hitting harder up north and the snowbirds bring it back down. You can see that’s what happened last year.
Bad summer. Good fall. Bad again right after the holidays. Now it’s still horrible almost into October. Doesn’t bode well.
While it’s the flu bro people are idiots, as it’s 20x as deadly, if it acts like a seasonal virus going forward, the scary part is we don’t know if that year one was a good or bad Covid year. Maybe a a bad Covid year is 1.5 million deaths and a good one is 200k? We have no idea at this point.