Kentucky Derby

[mulva]

these are my early thoughts. i will be back with a horse by horse analysis

this KD seems more loaded with more talent than we've seen in years. however, that will not necessarly make it a great bettng race. the favorites here seem to stand out, and you're not just dealing with one horse here. as far as pecking order goes, it only gets a little gray after the first 1/3 of the field.

it' s very difficult to come up that longshot (should there be one) considering what the horse will have to overcome and beat this year. and by longshot i mean a horse not in the top 1/3 of the field.

when i handicap the derby i try and envision the race and how it's gonna break down. it's not that difficult to do for the most part. but its near impossible to play closers and accuratly call and predict the race doing that. and it just doesn't happen with the new system anymore. they just don't fire or never reach anymore because of it. there's no sprinters messing up the race and it's much less of a free for all. sure they can finish underneath in some scenarnios but this year your looking at lee type is going to have to beat some really solid horses to finish 2nd.

what really stinks betting wise this year is most of the contenters have tactical speed as well. that means any or all will be in great position this race, making it even harder for one of the 2/3 of the feld to beat out the top 1/3 of horses.

right now there are 3 standouts. audible, mendy and justy.

after that there's a solid grouping right behind.

bolt, good magic, magnum moon...after the top six things get a little grey..but theres still an order to them for the most part. i won't split hairs discussing it yet. and being that it's a little more cloudy it's harder to predict.

these are your fringe horses.....some closer to filling out the top ten and and some towards the bottom.

you can catacterise most of them as longshots, fill ins, fyers, closers and slower horses for the most part. sure i'm not talking about everyone of these 14 horses. but you're going to have to make decisions as you cannot play 1/2 the field. that is unless you part wheel triples and exactas.

what i'm saying is don't get distracted with tunnel vision on your longshot and thnk you're going to hot a $1500 exacta. play him with the horses that will prolly win. if your longshot does come it it will still pay 3 digits for the most part.

just imagine the top 3 not being in the race. i'm sure most would say it would be wide open if that were the case. but i'm not so sure. after the top three, the three>five horses underneath seem more solid than the rest of the field.

as for longshots. you really want to try an pick a horse trending up for a big race, or poised for an improvement. I like to try and find a horse that will be be in decent position as well and was competitive vs the horses in the top six

this year after going over things a few times i've landed on flameaway and solomini three weeks out without post positions....they check a few of my boxes and seem like longshots to take a flyer on. but even selecting them, not only do they have to beat horses that they just lost to, they have to beat the top three horses as well. sure,...you could like a couple of different horses than these two but these are my longshost as of writing this. i'm sure i can come up with one or two more but you have to make signifigant cuts.

in scanning over the probable field i find it very easy to X out several horses because the top 1/3 of this field is so strong. that doesn't mean one of these won't step up and run the race of his life, or benefit from a weird speed duel, or great trip somehow.... it just seems very unlikely they will. throw in the fact that any closer that finishes 5th in the KD is a success for the most part

hofburg
my boy jack
enticed
noble indy
vino rossi
quip
lone sailor
gronkowski
bravazzo
promises fufill
free drop billy
firenze fire

[Brittney Griner's Clit]

@mintjewlips

[Crowe Diddly]

do you ever take the jockey into account in races like this? Are the jockeys kinda married to the horse at this point in the year already, so its not worth talking about? Are there any jockey difference-makers? In the list of x amount of things you take into account, how far down the list is the jockey?

[mulva]

do you ever take the jockey into account in races like this? Are the jockeys kinda married to the horse at this point in the year already, so its not worth talking about? Are there any jockey difference-makers? In the list of x amount of things you take into account, how far down the list is the jockey?

there are definitely some jocks you want more than others. but in a race like this you bet the horse and i feel the edge is minimal in most cases.

one thing to look at is if the jock had his choice on which horse to choose. obv if the jock has driven two horses and they both make in here. his value is important. especially if he feels A is better than B. it carry some weight, but it's not the end all

[JMM]

Good shit, Mulva.

I think Justify certainly looks the part. But there's a lot going against him, if a person were to want to exclude him from their win slot. Storm Cat. Apollo Curse. Justify has only raced against 14 horses total in his races. It's hard to predict how he's going to react with 19 others around him, in one race. That's some scary shit for the horse who's definitely going to be the betting favorite on Derby Day.

I don't like throwing Vino Rosso out. I've actually got him as one of my top horses to win the Derby. He checks a lot of boxes for me. Buckpasser, Raise a Native, fast 3/8, 1/8 time in the Wood (I know there was the bump on the stretch, but he was also pushed out wide early on, and recovered). I like him a lot.

Magnum Moon looks like he can run forever. Those final fractions, when taking into account how he drifted out, were quite impressive.

My top 8 in no particular order:

Bolt
Mendy
Justify
Audible
Flameaway
Vino Rosso
Magnum Moon
Good Magic

Of which, if I'm blindly tossing one, it's Good Magic.

[hutmaster]

I was at a food show last week held by one of my suppliers at Santa Anita. Got to meet Bob Baffert, the trainer of Justify. Talked to him and he thinks he is a legit Triple Crown Threat. He seemed pretty candid about it so I don’t think he was just saying it because it was his horse. He was a pretty nice guy. It was a non-racing day so I assume he was their working some horses out or something. Said he saw all the people and decided to check out the food show. The buddy I was with once dated a niece of Hall of Fame trainer Jack Van Berg and brought him up. Bob said that when he first got into the business Jack gave him 2 pieces of advice to be successful .....never get divorced, never buy your own farm. He said Van Berg died shortly after doing both

[nolawojy]

Some real good posts in here.

I personally like my boy jack. Fairgrounds horses have been killing it. He didn't have to win the LA derby. He will be a longshot but definitely has to be used imo.

Heard some negative things about audible.

My favorite bets to make (beting offshore) are the vs matchups, i.e. who will finish ahead of who. I plan on using my boy jack in multiple wagers of those...if he finishes near the back then it's gonna be a big loss for me.