Originally Posted by
Sanlmar
Lessons and philosophy for the gambler.
“reality is not a point; it’s a cloud of possibilities”. at any given time, you’re in a probabilistic situation
life is very random (apologies to FPS)
Hindsight bias: the tendency to take whatever facts a person has observed and make them fit neatly into a confident sounding story (aka wall street). This happens all the time: sports, finance, announcers, political pundits. Historians even impose false order upon random events without even realizing what the’re doing.
“He who sees the past as surprise-free is bound to have a future full of surprises.”
people predict very little but explain everything
Nate Silver is the king of hindsight bias and built a fortune and a soon to be defunct website called FiveThirtyEight selling hindsight bias to the unwashed masses
So while people underestimate the randomness of life there is one unifying theory that overrides all.
“Life and events if they are governed by anything are governed by regression to the mean”. You figure out what the mean is on your own.
Not fun stuff but saving souls isn’t fun.