That head case and genius Zack Greinke is on my watchlist.
He has been throwing in the mid 80’s so far. Reports he hit 87. Something, something about ramping up gradually. He was 91’ish last year.
It’s all kind interesting with the recent signing of 2015 NL Cy Young Arrieta to the Phillies. Grienke was the best Dodger pitcher that year. That is saying something when your staff includes Kershaw. Grienke finished 2nd in the voting well ahead of Kershaw.
Historic 1-2. Frightening. No bullpen. Dodgers sat out the trade deadline. GG Dodgers. I digress. The black Dodger hole keeps pulling me in.
Grienke is the John Nash (Nash Equilibrium/Game Theory & Beautiful Mind) of baseball. The Rajon Rondo of baseball too. He may have a psychotic break. He may be all done.
I’d short the season total Diamondbacks. By some measures he is the highest paid pitcher. He will throw whether he wants to or not. Whether he physically can or not. Word is he may not be the opening day pitcher. I hear alarm bells.
Could be a tragic end and Grienke could get seriously unglued.
Arrieta, Grienke and I will bet Kershaw will soon join the list of the once great NL class of 2015
We will see
shits gotta get in your head when you go from dodger stadium to the launching pad in phoenix...
ill give him credit for reigning it in last year...
have him on the last year of a contract in a dynasty league for 18% of my cap...cant wait until that is off the books...
Greinke is 4 1/2 years older than Kershaw -- which is actually huge at this point
Kershaw is the better pitcher. Greinke is very good, but he's a head case, and he's not a once-in-a-generation type talent. Kershaw really is one of the best pitchers of all time.
I don't see Kershaw regressing Arrieta-style, or even Greinke-style, because he has a longer and more established pattern of dominance. Aside from his rookie year, when he was still finding himself at age 20, he hasn't had an ERA above 2.91. In the past 7 seasons, he's had an ERA above 2.31 ONLY ONCE, and that was 2.53. Read that again. 6 out of the past 7 years saw ERAs of 2.31 or lower.
Career numbers, including his bad first year: 2.36 ERA, 1.002 WHIP, 2120 K, 236 BB.
Amazing.
Yes, he's had his issues in the postseason (not horrible, but not Kershaw-like), but putting that aside, he's really a special pitcher, and I've loved watching him on the Dodgers all these years.
The one potential enemy is his back. It's acted up the past two years, and like a similar dominant Dodger lefty (Koufax), his body may put an end to a brilliant career before people expect.
Kershaw did have a bit of a "home run problem" in 2017 -- where he gave up far more home runs per IP than he had any other year -- but that may just be the juiced ball. Everyone gave up more HR last year. Overall, his numbers were still excellent, and he did get a better handle on the HR situation in the latter part of the season.
Unless his back gives him problems, Kershaw should be dominant for at least another 4 years, and perhaps longer. He will just be turning 30 as the season starts.
The Dodgers' ace in the hole this year may be Walker Buehler. After a fail debut at the end of 2017, he has looked strong in spring training. He won't start the year in MLB, much like Cody Bellinger didn't in 2017, but like Bellinger, his services may be quickly required.
He's considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball right now.
Dodgers' Achilles heel right now is starting pitching. They really don't have much depth anymore. The rotation is Kershaw/Hill/Wood/Maeda/Ryu. All five of these guys have had injury issues, so it's hard to believe all of them will hold up. They really don't have any viable starters to take their place, aside from Buehler. Urias may not throw a pitch in 2018.
Don't be surprise if Buehler energizes the 2018 team the way Bellinger did in 2017, though Buehler will only be able to do it in 20% of the games.
Separate topic:
NL Sleepers -- who do you expect?
I'm asking this because I have my NL-only keeper fantasy draft coming up in a few weeks, and the ability to grab sleepers is what separates the men from the boys in such a league.
But before you reply, consider this:
- Pretty much all of the previous year's top 100 prospects were grabbed and held, so don't suggest any of those guys who are about to be promoted. (For example, last year I already had Cody Bellinger before the draft even started.)
- Don't bother naming sleepers that have been named in all the fantasy publications as sleepers. If not already kept from last year, they will be bid up to a high level at the draft anyway.
- Don't mention any AL players. Can't touch them.
I'm looking for sleepers whom are expected to contribute little or moderately in 2018, but you expect to have a big year nonetheless. Good examples of ones I grabbed in the recent past include Justin Bour in 2015 and Chris Taylor in 2017.
Also can be sleepers expected to have an average year in 2017, but you expect to break out huge (and yet isn't widely expected to do so).
luke weaver, later in the year alex reyes
if matt carpenter's back problem continues to be a thing, jose martinez
Sadly all of these 3 are already owned (two by my brother), and likely to be kept.
This isn't an easy league. You've really gotta dig deep to grab sleepers.
There are a few which seem to go each year at the auction, where I kick myself and ask, "Why didn't I think of that?" Usually it occurs late in the draft after I've already filled those positions, so I can't bid.
I get some of those myself (Jimmy Nelson comes to mind, who I grabbed both in 2015 and 2017, when he was ignored the entire draft), but these are few and far between.
Kershaw is a choker
Last year both of my teams contended but fell short.
They were pretty much opposite.
One owned heads in the first half, and had a 10-point lead at the All Star break. But it fell apart in the 2nd half, and ended up finishing 3rd (though close to 1st and 2nd).
The other was horrible for the first two full months, and was a hair above last place. Then it kicked ass throughout June, July, and August, and seemed like it might just pull off the ultimate comeback victory. But a mediocre September put it in 4th overall.
My two teams coming into this year don't seem very good, though neither is terrible. A lot will depend upon this year's draft, and of course which sleeper free agents I grab during the year.
During the year, 23 active, 17 reserve players.
In between years, up to 12 players can be kept, but any official MLB rookie never activated in our league can be kept in addition to those 12.
So basically everyone looks at all the prospects (including international) and hogs up anyone with a ghost of a chance of doing something in the majors.
So beyond having those rookies come up to own heads (like Bellinger did for me), the other big factor is grabbing sleepers who far outperform expectations. You can grab some at the draft, and some during the season as "free agents" (players not yet on any fantasy roster in the league).
BTW I've had Carlos Martinez from the very beginning. This will be my last year before I have to give him up. Also have Adolis Garcia as one of those rookie keepers, but I don't know if he will make much impact this year.
Has a long way to go to catch up to Kershaws stellar playoff outings ...
4.2IP 5R
4.0IP 7R
6.2IP 8R
6.2IP 5R
5.0IP 5R
6.1IP 4R
4.2IP 6R
http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/0...to-be-himself/
... the Dodgers increased the usage of his curveball during the regular season but almost entirely eliminated in the
playoffs. But that’s not all the Dodgers asked him to change upon reaching LA. Once he was with the Dodgers,
they asked him to change a LOT about how he pitches, including his arm slot, pitch mix, and the rhythm of his delivery.
.... they suggested he change, according to Darvish himself, was everything but his “beautiful face.”
... the Dodgers continued to tinker with Darvish’s pitch mix and overall strategy throughout the year, culminating in what
may have been a mistake to limit the usage of his curveball in the postseason.
Cubs Maddon : “We’re not going to dictate to him necessarily how he needs to go about pitching, pitch usage,
number of pitches, incorporating the variety he has. Let him alone, let him go pitch and we’ll watch it.
We’re not following the plan that he had with the Dodgers.”
Even if you believe Yu was tipping his pitches ... that's on the coaching staff to figure out imo .
Dodgers fucked up not bringing him back. Thrilled to have him on the North Side . Oh and thanks for Morrow as well
Yu Darvish will perform above and beyond anything he did with the Dodgers. Dodgers have the capacity to fuck up talent. Puig is a personal favorite example.
Lol, Kershaw. They took what he one of the best pitchers of his generation and fucked that up too. The Kershaw post season problem is a Dodger problem.
Yu will thrive under Maddon & Theo Epstein. They are orders of magnitude more savvy than Dodgers. They proved it.
Sandy Alcantara - guessing owned already but should have a clear path to starts in Mia at some point
Austin Riley - 3B in Atlanta should be open if he rakes in the minors early.
Musgrove & Moran on the pirates....bidding might be high but both should be worth it.
David Wright? Who knows, he might play again. Can't imagine someone is still keeping him.
yeah was gonna say moran too...but didn't think he qualified for possibly having a huge year...don't expect him to have a big year in Pittsburgh, but he should have a decent year...home park is definitely gonna hurt him...but if he's not fucking terrible can't imagine he's not gonna get the starting gig at some point (if he doesn't get it coming outta spring training)...they gave up an assload to get him...
also don't know if anybody has Harvey, but if you can take a cheap flyer on him i'd take that shot...he's an FA in my NL dynasty league and if I can get him for 1-1.5% of my cap think I'm gonna do it...
also guessing senzel is probably already taken, but i'd bet he's gonna be up pre-September and hitting in that ballpark is phenomenal...
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