I want to bet the patriots, but the public is overwhelmingly on them

[hongkonger]

It makes me uncomfortable to be on the same side as 95% of the public. Money is pouring in on the pats. Are people overlooking Brady's poor record in Denver, his shitty offensive line, denver's strong defense and run game, and the possibility that one low hit on the already-fragile gronk or Edelman and they could be knocked out?

Despite my well-known love for Peyton, I don't make emotional bets. I believe New England will win. But square money scares me. I might wait for the line to move up on game day then try to get Denver at +4 or 4.5, thoughts?

[gut]

Also the fun (albeit somewhat random) stat that Denver is 6-0 with the Hochuli ref crew since 2008. I think NE is like 3-4 in that time. Denver seems to be running good with ref luck this year also.

[Daly]

My honest take is you won't see much 3.5 available tomorrow, let alone 4. The books are happy with taking Denver plus the 3 at home and the few shops that moved to 3.5 got hammered with Denver money.

[OSA]

Tease the Pats and Cards.

[tyde]

I'll float 2 to 1 on OSA taking a dick up his ass before halftime

[OSA]

I'll float 2 to 1 on OSA taking a dick up his ass before halftime

Are you going to pay with the $215 you stole from me? I'm surprised you even have reception. I would have thought the rats in your shack would have eaten through the cables by now.

[mulva]

if you do your homework and see the mismatch matchups there would be no reason to care about the public, contrarian angles or any other bs reasons.

i certainly wouldn't be afraid of betting a team i like if i see many things are in their favor.

there's little sound reasoning to bet denver here. but they have a good defense and should they be able to run the ball and work the clock they could keep it close. at least for the 1st half

this present state denver team reminds me of the jets team from a few years ago that made it to the championship game. ball control, defense and put yourself in position to win the game w/o taking many risks and turning it over. this is exactly the plan denver did vs pitt. and they wouldn't have even of won that game had it not been for a pitt turnover late in the 4th. and lets not forget they were even fortunate to make the playoffs, let alone the 1 seed

people forget the pats were w/o many key players in their first meeting, not to mention the refs screwed them. if denver finds themselves playing from behind by 2 scores they have little chance here. manning just doesn't have it in him to win games like that anymore.

[big dick]

http://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sho...l=1#post507234

[herbertstemple]

Denver home field too big an advantage here. Unless Denver lays a monster egg, they win.

[chinamaniac]

public wins sometimes

[TheXFactor]

Just wait until the Patriots get into the Super Bowl again and bet against them.

Easy Money!

Denver must play perfect to win.
Odds are that Peyton Manning fucks up and he throws a couple of interceptions.

Patriots can make a few mistakes and still win, Broncos can't.

[lvpkr1009]

I think Denver will move the ball efficiently between the 20s and end up settling for a lot of FGs. NE has the luxury of being able to throw the ball 50 times and if Denver can't get pressure with 4 then Brady will just eat them alive when they bring 5 or 6 picking up the blitz with the back And hitting Gronk up the seam or amendola/Edelman in the slot. Could also see the greatest coach ever pulling some guy that no one has ever heard of out of his bag of tricks for a big day

[lewfather]

ONLY MONGS FADE THE GOAT.





FADE THE GOAT, THAT'S GAMBLING.

[Daly]

public wins sometimes

Fair

How often is it in championship weekend?

[lewfather]

public wins sometimes

Fair

How often is it in championship weekend?

Here's the reason why the Bronco's won't cover. It's a big secret, so don't tell anyone.

[IAmProfessionalTalk]

Pats win 53.3% of the time here.

[Daly]

Bovada just tapped out on the Patriots. They just put up +4 at -125.

It's clear to me the books have a ton of exposure to a Patriots cover but still aren't all that interested in attracting Denver $$.

[Shizzmoney]

I posted about this today:



The sharps are on Denver......but only at -3.5 and at -3 with favorable juice and its more of a math play. But I think the optimal play when looking at these teams at face value is NE because of the edge at QB, and the fact the Broncos have a lot of dumb players on their team and they are coached by Gary Kubiak, who often clinches his butt up in these games (ask Texans fans).

Another thing to consider: sometimes, even the dumb "public" is right and hits the favorite. 75% of the money is on the Pats right now; usually 80% of more is when I recommend actually taking the other side on the math alone.....but that goes for regular season, where there are more surprises (due to more shitty and pretender teams), not teams of quality like the Pats.

[simpdog]

Bovada just tapped out on the Patriots. They just put up +4 at -125.

It's clear to me the books have a ton of exposure to a Patriots cover but still aren't all that interested in attracting Denver $$.

If they move to 3.5 or 4 they absolutely don't want much Denver money. A pats win by 3 would be even worse since everybody chops or wins.

[hongkonger]

I KNEW IT! I fucking knew it. But couldn't pull the trigger. I planned to parlay Denver and the under and got near the front of the line at Venetian's book and chickened the fuck out.