Intrade - Obama/Romney

Buying up a sick amount (for me - about 7% of my investment portfolio) on Romney.

My thought process on this...

The goal of this is very short-term, hoping that Romney wins the debate on Wednesday and bounces back up over $3.

Alternatively, I think the polls will tighten a bit just because the major polling agencies (sans Rasmussen) don't want to risk looking stupid by banking on 2008 turnouts and in turn they might tighten back up inside of the margin of error the next two weeks. That should also lead to a Romney bounce.

If I get a good bounce I might freeroll the chance that Romney might win, after cashing out to get even.

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Originally Posted by abrown83

Buying up a sick amount (for me - about 7% of my investment portfolio) on Romney.

My thought process on this...

The goal of this is very short-term, hoping that Romney wins the debate on Wednesday and bounces back up over $3.

Alternatively, I think the polls will tighten a bit just because the major polling agencies (sans Rasmussen) don't want to risk looking stupid by banking on 2008 turnouts and in turn they might tighten back up inside of the margin of error the next two weeks. That should also lead to a Romney bounce.

If I get a good bounce I might freeroll the chance that Romney might win, after cashing out to get even.

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Romney isn't going to win.

It is highly unlikely at this point.

Anyone who wants to bet me on that right now (you send first, obv), I will give you long odds.

I just bet my entire Bodog balance of $938 on Obama winning at -500.

That's how sure I am.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

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Originally Posted by abrown83

Buying up a sick amount (for me - about 7% of my investment portfolio) on Romney.

My thought process on this...

The goal of this is very short-term, hoping that Romney wins the debate on Wednesday and bounces back up over $3.

Alternatively, I think the polls will tighten a bit just because the major polling agencies (sans Rasmussen) don't want to risk looking stupid by banking on 2008 turnouts and in turn they might tighten back up inside of the margin of error the next two weeks. That should also lead to a Romney bounce.

If I get a good bounce I might freeroll the chance that Romney might win, after cashing out to get even.

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Romney isn't going to win.

It is highly unlikely at this point.

Anyone who wants to bet me on that right now (you send first, obv), I will give you long odds.

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I think there are four things the media and general public aren't taking into account.

Republicans are mad as hell.

There are massively fewer minorities registered to vote this election cycle.

The consistent 6-8% oversampling of Democrats (2008 projections vs actual current voter registrations is how you arrive at that) is why Obama and his team are still competing in a bunch of "lean" Obama states.

Romney hasn't blown his load on spending yet. He is going to own radio and television the next month in swing states. Republicans have about 60 million more in cash on hand than the Democrats do.

I still think Obama very well might win, but I am just hoping in a short-term pop (<10 days) on Romney's number on Intrade.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Anyone who wants to bet me on that right now (you send first, obv), I will give you long odds.

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I'll take $100 of Romney @ 100 to 1 odds.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I just bet my entire Bodog balance of $938 on Obama winning at -500.

That's how sure I am.

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how much do you want to do giving me 5-1 Todd ???

Pretty sure abrown is buying at $2 and hoping it goes to $3 and fire off, doesn't really mean he thinks romney is going to win.

CAPITAL GAINS UP ITT YALL

holla back

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Originally Posted by lewfather

Pretty sure abrown is buying at $2 and hoping it goes to $3 and fire off, doesn't really mean he thinks romney is going to win.

CAPITAL GAINS UP ITT YALL

holla back

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:this

McCain was ahead of Obama around this time, then the financial crisis hit and it was over.

Romney is definitely behind, but Obama will be whipped in the debates. Romney will be super prepared, we all know that, and when Obama is off the Teleprompter he is cringeworthy.

Will Romney winning the debates be enough? Probably not because a lot of people get a lot of free shit and are motivated to keep it. But there could be a worldwide event that weakens Obama rapidly. Maybe financial as a double dip is on the way it appears. Maybe the Middle East, it is toxic. Then you have this whole Libyan ambassador thing that is beginning to create a life of its own.

Obama has the 'cool factor" which mesmerizes impressionable fans like Dirty B, but even being cool will not be enough with 8+% unemployment coupled with something else. Romney's problem is the fact Obama is an enabler, and those enabled will vote as opposed to those that earn for themselves and might not be paying attention.

The bottom line is Obama's financial policies have been an unmitigated failure. He has dramatically raised the deficit and unemployment is near depression levels, so its a fail. Part of me wants Obama to be re-elected so unemployment will soar to 10% and set the country up for a Reagan like President.

To be fair, he did get OBL, it happened on his watch so he get's that check mark.

Beth Meyers, the top Romney campaign adviser, is trying to set expectations for the debates pathetically low.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics...against-obama/

"Given President Obama’s natural gifts and extensive seasoning under the bright lights of the debate stage, this is unsurprising. President Obama is a uniquely gifted speaker, and is widely regarded as one of the most talented political communicators in modern history. This will be the eighth one-on-one presidential debate of his political career. For Mitt Romney, it will be his first."

For some reason I knew this thread would slowly slide into a political debate and not the merits of my bet.

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Originally Posted by abrown83

For some reason I knew this thread would slowly slide into a political debate and not the merits of my bet.

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Your bet is on who will win the presidential election, yet you are surprised when people start debating who will win the presidential election? If not political, WTF type of debate were you expecting about your political bet? Would you post a Super Bowl bet and wonder why people debated who would win?

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Originally Posted by Anal_Hershiser

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Originally Posted by abrown83

For some reason I knew this thread would slowly slide into a political debate and not the merits of my bet.

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Your bet is on who will win the presidential election, yet you are surprised when people start debating who will win the presidential election? If not political, WTF type of debate were you expecting about your political bet? Would you post a Super Bowl bet and wonder why people debated who would win?

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My bet has nothing to do with who will win the Presidential Election. My bet has to do with short-term trends based on polling and the debates.

I will be out of this bet a solid two weeks prior to the election, unless I try and freeroll a big score on a Romney win.

To put your analogy to use.

It would be like me betting whether or not a player is going to have x amount of yard passing in the Super Bowl. Then people coming in and saying this team is going to win, no this team is going to win. While not getting any feedback if people think my player is going to hit the passing yards mark.

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Originally Posted by abrown83

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Originally Posted by Anal_Hershiser

Your bet is on who will win the presidential election, yet you are surprised when people start debating who will win the presidential election? If not political, WTF type of debate were you expecting about your political bet? Would you post a Super Bowl bet and wonder why people debated who would win?

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My bet has nothing to do with who will win the Presidential Election. My bet has to do with short-term trends based on polling and the debates.

I will be out of this bet a solid two weeks prior to the election, unless I try and freeroll a big score on a Romney win.

To put your analogy to use.

It would be like me betting whether or not a player is going to have x amount of yard passing in the Super Bowl. Then people coming in and saying this team is going to win, no this team is going to win. While not getting any feedback if people think my player is going to hit the passing yards mark.

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You may not be betting on the final outcome, but you are betting on the candidates performance whether it be short term or long term. People ARE going to discuss the winner. Not sure why that is so surprising to you. If you did make that SB bet about passing yards, would you really be surprised if the game itself was discussed? I guess I see what you are saying, I just don't understand why you would expect anything different.

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Originally Posted by abrown83

Buying up a sick amount (for me - about 7% of my investment portfolio) on Romney.

My thought process on this...

The goal of this is very short-term, hoping that Romney wins the debate on Wednesday and bounces back up over $3.

Alternatively, I think the polls will tighten a bit just because the major polling agencies (sans Rasmussen) don't want to risk looking stupid by banking on 2008 turnouts and in turn they might tighten back up inside of the margin of error the next two weeks. That should also lead to a Romney bounce.

If I get a good bounce I might freeroll the chance that Romney might win, after cashing out to get even.

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Actually a sound investment strategy.

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Originally Posted by Anal_Hershiser

You may not be betting on the final outcome, but you are betting on the candidates performance whether it be short term or long term. People ARE going to discuss the winner. Not sure why that is so surprising to you.

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rewind...

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Originally Posted by abrown83

For some reason I knew this thread would slowly slide into a political debate and not the merits of my bet.

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Originally Posted by Kuntmissioner

rewind...

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Originally Posted by abrown83

For some reason I knew this thread would slowly slide into a political debate and not the merits of my bet.

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Anytime someone says "I knew such and such would happen" in the manner he did, it implies an element of surprise even if it isn't specifically stated. At least that's how I read it. If you didn't read it that way, congratulations.

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Originally Posted by Anal_Hershiser

Quote:

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Originally Posted by abrown83

For some reason I knew this thread would slowly slide into a political debate and not the merits of my bet.

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Your bet is on who will win the presidential election, yet you are surprised when people start debating who will win the presidential election? If not political, WTF type of debate were you expecting about your political bet? Would you post a Super Bowl bet and wonder why people debated who would win?

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You were wrong right there. Everything else is just trying to bait him into an argument.

Out at an average of 3.24.

Will post more specifics later. I have been awake 31 hours in what only can be described as a weird, terrible, and awesome day all rolled into one.

Ninja Edit: Realized I never posted that I got in at an average of 2.21.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I just bet my entire Bodog balance of $938 on Obama winning at -500.

That's how sure I am.

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I'll take Romney at 3 to 1 for any amount.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I just bet my entire Bodog balance of $938 on Obama winning at -500.

That's how sure I am.

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Fuck, my timing is bad.

In hindsight, I should have waited until after the first debate, because a poor Romney performance wouldn't have affected the odds much (since he was already considered dead in the water), while a great Romney performance would increase the odds a lot in his favor.

He crushed in the debate, and now I have a terrible value bet.

:gay

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Originally Posted by abrown83

Out at an average of 3.24.

Will post more specifics later. I have been awake 31 hours in what only can be described as a weird, terrible, and awesome day all rolled into one.

Ninja Edit: Realized I never posted that I got in at an average of 2.21.

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*warning, rant alert*
Nice. I almost posted that I considered betting Romney when i read that Obama had called the debate practice "exhausting" after only a couple hours of practice. I knew obama thought his lead was locked up and probably considered betting on himself. The lead was just enough to lull him into laziness, but not large enough that it can't be overcome. This may come down to who wants the presidency more and right now that is Romney. After listening to the debate there is not a dime worth of difference between these two clowns, Romney sounded like the centrist that he is, not the radical, immigration hating right winger that he isn't but pretended to be all the way up until that debate. I've never been so unsure how a person would actually govern before as I never seen someone like Romney be so openly flip-floppy on nearly every issue. I am certain he knew he couldn't win the primary without a make-believe hard right turn. But I'm not certain which Mitt would show up at the White House. remember he wouldn't have to worry about a primary if he governed from the center and pissed off the tea party but I'm now leaning to that being the distinct possibility. Exciting, because we could get some cool shit done with a moderate Republican just like we got some cool shit done with Clinton. Fact is, he went soft-opposite of nearly every Republican platform last night.

Another fact is Romney should win the Presidency (no a prediction, a criticism of his campaign) and should be winning long before this debate considering historical and economic factors. Just Obama being black truly does cost him a few points. The reasons why Romney is losing are many, but the biggest reason has to be that people just don't like him. I think that is because he wasn't being himself. A centrist. Now he is and he is much more comfortable in that role. Even though Obama is governing and acting like a centrist (please don't try to argue this point people who think he is a socialist, I'm talking about his actual policy), I don't believe he IS a centrist. So I think romney's move to the center was brilliant. he was being more of himself than Obama.


That said, he is still an asshole. And his chosen profession of carving up companies and laying people off does not seem like a economic plan to the average low IQ American voter. It is impossible to explain in a debate or commercial as to exactly how Bain Capital is a benefit to the US. Well, they are, if they pay their fair share of taxes. Which they don't. Which isn't Romney's fault, but I digress........

Bottom line, I think this thing is 50/50. I'm still voting Obama because I am seriously scared of the GOP guys in the house. Those guys are seriously fucking retarded about the economy, people's rights etc. The GOP Senate should keep them at bay but Demint and a couple other idealogues are gaining power and if the GOP wins in the Indiana and Missouri senate races, 2014 senate picks ups which are upcoming (There are several Dem senators with no chance of winning that could easily see tea Party types win their primary without fear of losing in the general) could seriously see the tea Party, a radical group of misinformed, non-comprimising, clueless idealogues, write America's laws for 2 years with Romney powerless to stop it.

idealogues from either party should never get to actually write laws, just balance policy during political pendulum swings.


TLDR

Bet on Romney. he will gain at least 3 points and Dem polling methods could easily be 2-3 points off already. I'm not saying Rasmussen is right but it if the polls have been off, they are likely to slightly favor Obama's chances IMHO.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I just bet my entire Bodog balance of $938 on Obama winning at -500.

That's how sure I am.

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Fuck, my timing is bad.

In hindsight, I should have waited until after the first debate, because a poor Romney performance wouldn't have affected the odds much (since he was already considered dead in the water), while a great Romney performance would increase the odds a lot in his favor.

He crushed in the debate, and now I have a terrible value bet.

:gay

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Druff, serious question. With all you know about how I dabble in InTrade, why would you not look in to that first? You can make a rake-free bet on InTrade and get better odds instead of dealing with Bodog. I would've even funded your account for a small fee.

I've brought Intrade up to druff a few times, not sure why but it seems like he just isn't into it.

I've arbitraged with so many people irl using InTrade, it's not even funny.

I have some Romney at $2.20ish on Intrade, I think this coming Wednesday I'll sell, or if he gets anywhere near $4. A little mad I didn't accept an offer from someone at 8-1 on Romney, but I knew they would never buy-out with Obama so that was a different kind of bet, but i could have hedged with inTrade like PLOL says above.

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Originally Posted by PLOL

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Fuck, my timing is bad.

In hindsight, I should have waited until after the first debate, because a poor Romney performance wouldn't have affected the odds much (since he was already considered dead in the water), while a great Romney performance would increase the odds a lot in his favor.

He crushed in the debate, and now I have a terrible value bet.

:gay

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Druff, serious question. With all you know about how I dabble in InTrade, why would you not look in to that first? You can make a rake-free bet on InTrade and get better odds instead of dealing with Bodog. I would've even funded your account for a small fee.

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I did it on a whim and didn't think about InTrade.

I bought right around 4400 shares.

Sold 4000 shares.

Held on to 400ish shares. My thought process is if Romney goes above $4.5, I sell half and then will ride out the other half.

If Romney struggles in the next debate or doesn't bounce in the polls, and hangs in the $3-$4 range, I will probably dump 7-10 days prior to the election.

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Originally Posted by abrown83

I bought right around 4400 shares.

Sold 4000 shares.

Held on to 400ish shares. My thought process is if Romney goes above $4.5, I sell half and then will ride out the other half.

If Romney struggles in the next debate or doesn't bounce in the polls, and hangs in the $3-$4 range, I will probably dump 7-10 days prior to the election.

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I ended up dumping the rest of these when Romney blipped above $4.

I ended up netting north of 5k in profit.

So what does any sane person do? I am in the process of buying up 4k worth of Romney on InTrade, going to ride it out through election night.

Three things pushed me over the top to make this bet.

Early voting numbers - Yes, Democrats are ahead, but no where near 2008 numbers in almost every swing state. I am actually beginning to believe this election won't even be close (Obamaesque 2008 victory but for Romney).

Undecided voters - By this point anyone that is undecided isn't deciding between Romney and Obama. They are deciding whether or not they are going to vote for Romney.

Republican ground game - 2008 the Democrats really smoked the Republicans as far as ground game goes. The Republicans have really caught up. They have gone door-to-door to almost every registered Republican in swing states. They use cell phones and tablets to record the persons answer, if they haven't voted after knocking on their door, they are being lined up for a reminder call on election day. This isn't new, it is just the Republicans catching up organizationally to the Democrats (might be worth 1%).

Should be an interesting week. I may chicken out and sell some early if Romney bumps up on InTrade, but if not, good luck me!