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Well... I'm in a bit of a slump.
Which is why I don't love trying to get out of it with a big dog, but here we are.
James Paxton is 5.40 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 23:9 K/BB since July 1. I'm going with the Royals today and their bullpen to take this one over Boston. You can list Paxton but leave it open for the Royals.
Kansas City (bullpen/Cox) +195 at Boston (Paxton)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
As evidenced by BCR’s article the speed of change is astonishing. I never forecast this and I was as pessimistic as anyone you know. Correctly so.
I was in SouthPoint just after VSIN put up the booth in the sportsbook. I remember asking what that was all about. First round of MLB playoffs Oct 2017.
3 years is very generous. AI is about to hit too on both sides of the counter. Edges so tiny. Lines so efficient. Customer targeting so sad.
I hope China has made his nut or will soon. The future is wagering-tainment not creating tickets. Maybe that’s what you meant by, “we will see more of him”. It’s about views
I wouldn't worry about Chinas well being.
I had a discussion with a guy earlier this week that knows more about the sports wagering ecosystem than anyone else I know. He is certainly qualified enough to get that level if praise from me. The gyst of the conversation was local PPH based sportsbooks are dead from a true sharp betting perspective. He in turn had a meeting with 5 of the largest bookies in the area and to a man they have all told there old reliable clients they will continue on with them. Don't bother to ask them to open any dime accounts for some random new guy. New accounts are $200 max if at all. You will need to fill out a sports credit app to get in action going forward.
TL;DR Syndicates are going to hammer public books for as long as they can. They done monkeying around with pph.
I don’t know what you are going on about.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
As evidenced by BCR’s article the speed of change is astonishing. I never forecast this and I was as pessimistic as anyone you know. Correctly so.
I was in SouthPoint just after VSIN put up the booth in the sportsbook. I remember asking what that was all about. First round of MLB playoffs Oct 2017.
3 years is very generous. AI is about to hit too on both sides of the counter. Edges so tiny. Lines so efficient. Customer targeting so sad.
I hope China has made his nut or will soon. The future is wagering-tainment not creating tickets. Maybe that’s what you meant by, “we will see more of him”. It’s about views
I wouldn't worry about Chinas well being..
In keeping with opportunity and the times I knew China had quit poker and shifted to sports betting some time ago. During the Golden Age as it were
There have been eras when guys saw opportunity and cleaned up. Poker, Bitcoin, sports wagering. Now I’m told he’s the subject of a podcast so perhaps he killed it. Why would I be “worried” for him? China must have done something important. Nobody is looking to interview you or I.
If you wanna share the link, I’ll take it.
China did a great pod on poker which I praised a decade ago in real time. He was far more real about poker than poker podcasters of that era. He might turn out to be a great wagering podcaster and clean up there too. I understand the wagering pod money for some has been downright stupid. Why take risk when you can just talk about it?
I had a favorite wagering pod. I liked it less because of the picks and more because of the banter between the three guys. They insulted each other and disrespected the other’s choices. They were funny. Very New Jersey/New York. It was entertaining. One of the guys and my personal favorite seems to have suffered a mental episode and will not come on air anymore. I wonder if it was his mental challenge or he was getting harassed by some busto viewer. Fruitcake viewers could be an occupational risk. The chemistry was never the same. These guys were playing jazz. Other podcasts are just a collection of instruments.
Its a manner of speaking San. China is doing well being the point.
Civale versus Cle is intriguing. I just can’t figure out the angle. Would be insta under if Curry could go 7, as he’s been very good, but he’s in this weird relief one day/spot start bullpen game slot and the Tribe’s middle relief has been very hit/miss.
I saw that last night. Honestly this slate looks like the special Olympics. The trash going to the hill is almost comical. It’s been a really wonky week.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Maybe you’ve inspired me to take another peek.
Cleveland +170
Low scoring flip at a big plus number Hate Josh Naylor out. Clase still has pitches left.
I bet a small one topping pizza.
August dog days struggles.
I have two for you anyway.
Pittsburgh (Oviedo) -111 vs Cincinnati (Abbott)
Two pitchers going completely opposite directions.
Arizona (Nelson) +144 vs San Diego (Snell)
Arizona? Aren’t they 11-28 lately? They could be the worst team in baseball atm. Wow the NL West is dog shit. As usual, I guess. We had hopes at the start.
Why am I obsessed with this Det v Sawks game? Sale return and public on Det. Wanna take Sawks but…
From the gang who can’t shoot straight (Wynn)
WynnBet Shutting Down Sports Betting, Online Casino In Multiple States
https://www.legalsportsreport.com/12...-eight-states/
Rays lulz atm. LFG BCR
@starbucks
Stunning loss for Alcaraz to American Tommy Paul. This kid has hurt me several times. I’m in pain. It’s gonna take a week to forget this loss.
Does Alcaraz join the over rated Jays on the perpetually overpriced ban list? Bo Bichette’s father (ex MLB player himself) really wanted his son, the Jays shortstop, to play tennis instead.
I don’t know if Alcaraz is a roids kid, has a conditioning issue, bad team or is getting caught up in the jet set….. or if his worst failing is simply being a kid
One of the greatest and sickest athletes ever in sport over the long haul. Djokovic
I am not yet prepared to make a statement regarding Spencer Strider (game 2). When the jury returns you will be notified. It’s not looking good for him. Prepare your things
Lucas Glover really is breaking my balls at this point.
Must be serious heat, all the golfers have betty swollocks
A bit like me sweating Hun An and Andrew Putnam
Putnam just chipped in from 50 yards lol. Distinctly average big son
a little clarification on the heavy money from me on Lucas Glover.... it is kinda heavy money for me .... $115 Glover to finish top 30 at -110 ,$1 Glover to win atQuote:
1dollarboxcar: Glover is gonna gonna be good for me this tourney..... heavy money money for me to finish top 30.... pre tournament... sorry he burned you
+7500... Hovland to win $1 at +2000... won $8 on a round 1 matchup between Tony Finau vs. Wyndam Clark.... that was my play this tourney... now just to sit back and hopefully relax the rest of the tourney....
Alright. Too much chatter and not enough picks from me.
Both plus money parlays.
Red Sox/Houston
Red Sox/Dodgers.
Bellinger 1+ hit or HRR as a piece is ok. I know he missed last time but he’s 9 for 10
Det Manning last 3 is an era & whip approaching 10. Struggling.
Quote:
Manning's struggles carried over into Sunday's start. He allowed five runs through the first two innings and later gave up his second home run of the day in the fourth. The 25-year-old was miraculously one out away from completing six frames but was yanked after allowing consecutive base hits. Manning has put together a very forgettable three-game stretch during which he's allowed 19 runs (17 earned) on 23 hits, including six home runs over his last 16.2 innings. The Tigers don't really have any better options at this point, so Manning figures to stick around. He's tentatively lined up to face the Red Sox on the road in his next start.
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Like the Reds in game 1. Keller has been in meh/ok form at best last five-six starts. Williamson has been in good form. Keller has more upside, but had trouble spotting fastball and keeping pitch count down or getting beat up in half his last six starts after very good start to season.
Can get Reds slightly plus money. The books and schedule have Williamson starting game one. The preview article on espn says otherwise, so if something strange occurs, could be void bet, but doubtful.
Not a lot of Reds have much history against Keller. Steer is 2/4. Kind of like his over 1.5 hits/runs/rbi prop at -140, but it won’t let me same game that. Just a horrible hits combo that only makes +114 to +140 and that isn’t enough value.
Pirates are starting Andre Jackson in second game. Kid that the Dodgers gave up on and Pirates picked up. He’s legit looked like the nastiest fucker alive since arriving. Against Braves and Brewers. This is his first start and won’t go more than 3 I imagine. Only factors into a first inning or first 5 prop, but take a look at this kid since joining pirates. Then again, I’ve seen relievers fall apart with a start, different mentality, but I was shocked Dodgers gave up on him given his stuff when on.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1dollarboxcar
I mean hovland was in last place after say one and is one good shot from being tied for the lead. He fucking doubled the 18th hole twice.
Feel good about the fact that he was the best player for the course this weekend the way he has played 41 of the last 42 holes.
misfire ^^ and yeah a missed shot on this course will KILL you.
also i really didn't think Glover could " par " his way to victory.... but it is starting to look that way.... he is kinda lucky his playing partner Taylor Moore and was in 2nd starting today took a shit... Glover kinda lucky Spieth, Hovland and Rory are erratic today but do have some birdies and were 3-4 shots behind when the day started.... it's gonna be a very interesting ending....
and of course Cantaly and Fleetwood are not out of it by any means...
i mean it is like watching an NFL team go into their " prevent defense " and run the ball up the middle to run out the clock......cause they have a 20 point lead starting the 4th quarter.... just knew the inevitable was coming......
fuck around and fuck around all day... and now you find yourself in a ....Quote:
Originally Posted by 1dollarboxcar
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7fjDS0jKiE
very very lucky to win that... everyone just played barely bad enough and at the right times in order for him to win....
HOW DID I LOSE THAT BRAVES BET ALSO DOWN 700 ON LIVE BLACKJACK
were going off the rails here
literally playing with armenian nerds from pasadena and theyre betting like 11 dollars a hand absolute travesty
Guys, judge is playing, as is Stanton (ok that's not so exciting), and you can get +170 on the Yanks. What a time.
Yankees (Schmidt) +170 at Atlanta (Fried)
Sea under 8
Boy I've been colder than Marty's AC
I appeared on a sports-betting pod a couple of weeks back if anyone is interested in catching it then you can find it here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuJbD9w1zDw
The kick in the ass was that I was considering the Rockies at like +200, because Rockies at home +200 is almost always good value, but Flexen was pitching and he's just so terrible I couldn't fire.
And then he ended up pitching decently, and the Rockies came back from a late 4-1 deficit and won 6-4.
:gay
Atlanta (Elder) vs Yankees (Severino) - Over 10.5 -110
Severino has been absolutely terrible in every start. Elder has been bombed with 5-7 runs in 4 starts since July 9, including his last 2.
Couple picks that are PFA adjacent. Jamming them in before the ploppie money moves the line
I want you to know that I'm proud neither of what I have done or of what I am doing.
Milw Miley 2.90 ERA / 4.29 EXPECTED ERA / 1.13 WHIP / 17% K%
LAD Kershaw 2.51 ERA / 3.45 EXPECTED ERA / 1.03 WHIP / 27.5 K%
Milwaukee has an amazing Bullpen and Dodgers are good too. Brewers Mariners and Dodgers are top of the league. Brewers are better than Dodgers by SIERA but Bo Miller went long last night and Dodger didn’t really touch the pen.
Milw TT under 1.5 F5 -120 is fucking nuts but the maths work (insert Kershaw giving up a homer pic with mouth open). DraftKings Innings / Team Total first x innings
Cleveland Syndergaard 6.35 ERA / 6.33 EXP ERA / 1.40 WHIP / 14.5 K%
Cinn Abbott 2.95 / 3.54 / 1.11 / 27 K%
Cleveland’s Bullpen is unbelievably one of the worst in the MLB now RIP. Cinci isn’t great either. There is an argument for F5 to avoid variance.
Reds -0.5 F5 -120
Syndergaard has done pretty well with Cleveland having escaped Dodger’s Prior. Was it luck?
Rotowire
Look at recent Thor game logs on ESPN scheduleQuote:
Syndergaard (1-1) earned the win Thursday, allowing one run on six hits and two walks over 5.2 innings in a 4-3 victory over Toronto. He struck out five.
ANALYSIS
Syndergaard struggled early but settled in after that, hurling three consecutive 1-2-3 innings before once again running into trouble in the sixth. He was replaced by Nick Sandlin with two outs in the frame, just missing out on a quality start. Syndergaard has allowed one run or fewer in two of his first three starts with the Guardians, and Friday's win was his first since April 30.
Money line parlay Lad & Cinci +130
Betts & Marcus Simien or Seager Texas 1+ Hits parlay @Boxcar
@Boxcar look at your BallParkPal and take your vitamins
Lotta typing but BCR & Druff
The NL West last 10 games is simply unbelievable. What a collapse. Is still can’t get over it. Does SDP Pellier get whacked? Fans have turned on Padres and the clubhouse is cancer. Giants are a game show with the pitching. DBacks are just stunning in their collapse. After all these years you’d think eventually it would be competitive.
I had this too. Counting on NYY offense and we paid the price.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Oof
It’s August and Dodgers run lines are just money 75% if the time like last year. Home ones are obviously way better priced. Team has more 5+ run innings than anyone I can recall since the steroid era. Regular season gods. You sit around during a 1-1 game just waiting for a seriously crooked number.
Tribe has me scared, but despite all the injuries, Tito never lets them quit. I have liked the last few pitching matchups, but can’t pull the trigger because the starters have to be perfect. It’s a lost season, but their young pitching has been outstanding.
Took decent sized shot against Thor tonight. First 5 -1.5 +150 run line -1.5 +114
Dodgers -1.5 -109
Inspired by Sanlmar, hoping to break my losing streak:
Cincinnati (Abbott) vs Cleveland (Syndergaard) - Over 9.5 -115
When you're running bad, it all goes wrong.
7-2 Reds, bottom 8th, 2nd and 3rd no out. Pop out and two Ks.
Probably lose this one unless Tribe scores in top 9.
Yup lost again. What a terrible streak.
Friedl also robbed a HR early which of course would have made the difference.
Yeah I think I agree it might be time to start plopping it with Dodgers -1.5.
Since July 31, they are 12-3 in -1.5 lines. The only losses against that spread were their 2-1 Rockies victory, 5-4 Diamondbacks victory, and 8-3 Padres loss.
In fact, -2.5 might not be out of the question, as they are 11-4 in -2.5 spread games since July 31!
The pain was real. ProofQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar