*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

I’m waffling so hard on StL AZ
Went into it wanting the +130 STL

Gallen sucks day games recently but home away trumps that in my book. He ain’t been great. Flaherty is so unpredictable. I guess that’s on me. DBacks been sad lately and STL rather hot. Gonna pass

Dodgers v lefties and bullpen concerns both sides. Gonsolin hurt? wtf. Prolly won’t go long.
Been spewing Dodgers lately but irresistible

Kikuchi 5+K’s & Jays TT o2.5 +100 (DK SGP)


I have cigars for Bryan Bello Sawks paternity …. Playing ATL action on baby value. Lol. One time or twins idc.

:uhhuh

We both had super easy wins.

I was so close to pushing the STL button too

Kikuchi had 8 strikeouts & Jays have 8 so far ✅

I have for later

Houston/Mets parlay +133

Oakland +1.5 -110 (half unit)
Oakland ML +196 (half unit)

Astros -162 (no love) Red Sox Bello should be with his wife

Mets +128

San, good call on the Kikuchi/Toronto stuff today. Dodgers looked horrible. I feel bad for the people who went to this game in the hot sun. Sadly, I would have gone to last night's exciting comeback (down 7-3 in the 9th, ended up winning in 10th), but it was gonna be like 90 degrees at game time (at night!), so I said fuck it.

Benjamin really likes going to Dodgers games, but he doesn't like it when it's hot, so I try to stick to good weather games, which usually isn't tough to find in LA. I might go next week, as it will get cooler.

Detroit was rained out, so no action on that bet.

I'm looking at Oakland, and have been all day. I might fire on it, too. Stand by.

Gallen continued to get torched by the longball, as I predicted. He gave up 2, though in his defense, the Cards hit 3 more off the Arizona bullpen.

Still, that's now 12 HR allowed since June 4, after allowing just 2 prior to that. Gallen's HR issues, while only accounting for 2 of the 5 runs he gave up, were the main reason for this pick, though I also felt Flaherty would put out a solid start, which he mostly did.

Okay, let's look at this Battle of the Bay coming up this evening.

The A's have rookie Freddy Tarnok going, who is likely to throw 3 innings like he did last time out. Tarnok has done in his brief MLB stint essentially the same as what he was doing in AAA. In both the minors and Majors, he's battling control issues yet otherwise not allowing that many runs. He's then followed by Hogan Harris, who pitched well through late June, but then got hit pretty hard 3 consecutive times from June 29 to July 15. In his last outing, however, he pitched fairly well against Houston.

The Giants have Ryan Walker starting, but don't read too much into that. He's going to be an opener, probably not going more than 2 innings, and will be followed by Alex Wood. As has been typical of Wood's career, he's been inconsistent in 2023. On June 22, he got bombed by the Padres. On June 27, he pitched great against the Blue Jays. On July 2, he was super wild and gave up 5 runs to the Mets in less than 2 innings. He bounced back and threw 5 shutout innings in relief against the Rockies (in SF) on July 8. Finally back as a starter, he allowed 8 baserunners, and lifted in the 4th, though he only gave up 1 run. The lowly Nationals hit him for 5 runs last time out.

The key here is Wood. Is he worth a 2-to-1 favorite, given his recent struggles, or is it +EV to oppose him?

I think I gotta agree with Sanlmar here. While the A's are a horrid team and the two pitchers they have lined up are uninspiring, Wood's control issues and general struggles lately don't bode well for him, especially on an evening with a 9-11mph wind blowing out. It is cool in SF tonight (60 degrees or so), so that will somewhat negate the wind regarding the HR advantage, but still, overall the wind should help carry some balls out.

A's have also gone 3-4 in their last 7, which for them counts as a hot streak. They were notched 2-1 by the Giants last night.

If you can, don't bet on "listed" for the Giants, as Walker starting doesn't matter. We are focused on Wood. Probably won't matter, though, as we are close to gametime.

Oakland (Tarnok) +200 at San Francisco (any/Walker)

Hmm, too late for me because I already placed the bet. But you might want to "action" the whole bet, because ESPN claims Harris is starting. I think ESPN is wrong, though. I see Tarnok everywhere else, including this official A's post from 2 hours ago:

https://twitter.com/Athletics/status...28581336539137

I had Tarnok starting 5 hours ago. I think he goes longer than traditional opener.

It’s a late night pit game

I’m getting savaged night games

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

I had Tarnok starting 5 hours ago. I think he goes longer than traditional opener.

It’s a late night pit game

I’m getting savaged night games

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We're getting savaged again. 2-0 already, which for Oakland is like being behind 6-0.

I've gotta stay away from these temptations to bet on horrible teams.

Wow, Jacob Junis gave us life by coughing up 3 runs.

Alex Wood finally made an appearance, in the 5th. And he's pitching well. We got good Alex Wood. Damnit.

But at least it's a precarious 3-3 tie, though SF has got a guy on 2nd.

San your +1.5 might end up being the winner, but I hope they just take it outright so I can win mine and you can win both halves.

Welp.. I don't think we're getting there. Austin Slater hit a 2-run bomb in the bottom of the 6th. 5-3 SF.

Last minute playing my rush blind at the 3M

Adam Hadwin 35/1 (outright)
Lucas Glover 55/1 &
Taylor Pendrith 60/1 (both e/w)

Dear Druff,

Wash (M Gore) +158 v Mets (Scherzer) … take a look

Scherzer allows fly balls and Wash doesn’t strikeout much. Bad for old man Scherzer.

I dunno how the money will come into this. You suspect Mets Scherzer but Wash has been playing well imo. I’m buying now with listed pitchers. I’ll take a closer look at splits and lineups later.

I don’t understand NYY Cole and Judge -124. Why so cheap? The Judge news hits the public and we at least have CLV - whatever you think that’s worth.

Dare I go under in this era of offense?

Atlanta (Smith-Shawver) vs Milwaukee (Rea) - Under 11 +100
Colorado (Blach) vs Oakland (Medina) - Under 12.5 -120 (under 12 -110 ok)

im going in on this mil brew dogs under

i mean 3 runs 2 innings weeeeeeeeeeeeeere gonnnnnnnna be fine

we got 7 to play with yall

back by public demand

Dodgers Hate Bet of the Day

Doyers starter Michael Grove under 15.5 outs recorded -132 (FD)
proposing Grove does not pitch beyond 5th inning

aaaaand were fucked

Jays can’t hit LHP to save their lives. It’s unAmerican

i missed his rockies play how do we bounce back late games

just fire the padres for max?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lol wow

just fire the padres for max?

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If you do - only F5

Padres -1 -115 woulda been acceptable but they should be selling … so dysfunctional

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

back by public demand

Dodgers Hate Bet of the Day

Doyers starter Michael Grove under 15.5 outs recorded -132 (FD)
proposing Grove does not pitch beyond 5th inning

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Don’t know if you are familiar with human sacrifice.

Without Betts and Freeman Dodgers have no offense. Thus there is zero hope of being competitive with America’s Team. China Grove will be sacrificed for the good of the bullpen.

The question here - is Dave Roberts such a sadist that he would leave him out for 6 innings? I think the pitch count would be ok. He lacks the character imo.

I’d almost be willing to lose my bet for the entertainment value.

Bo Miller & Michael Grove for Ohtani this year. Send the Dodger team limo to Anaheim tomorrow morning. I will buy a Dodger Ohtani jersey

I had the Reds +1.5 but this Grove thing makes me ill. I had no way to hedge out.

If Outman didn’t rob that home run the pitch count hits 90 & maybe I cash.

I hate the fail Dodgers this year. Can’t make money with them or against them.

baaaazinnnnnnnng

Welp, the Oakland under was gold. 2 runs when the line was 12.5.

The Brewers/Braves put up 14, so I lost that by 3.

Split, and we move on.

For those of you who jumped into the season long most hits bets we just had a Bo Bichette funeral

Arraez is the clear odds on favorite at +2200 and if he dies we got Freeman behind Acuna

Lets hope Arraez stays healthy and the Braves sit thier stars late September.



Arraez plus Strider plus under Oakland plus under colorado plus over texas is going to = a lot of close accounts on October 4th

yea zero people did that you goon

WE LIVE FOR TODAY DALEBURG

also we doing anything on this dbacks game

I've got two tonight. Both Sox.

White Sox (Scholtens) +173 at Texas (Heaney)

Fading Heaney here, who has coughed up 15 runs in his last 18 1/3 IP, over 4 games. His only good recent outing was against the light-hitting Injuns. This is only the 3rd time in his career that he has more than 100 IP in a year.


Boston (Bello) -105 at Seattle (Bryce Miller)

Rookie Bryce Miller coughed up 4 HR in his last outing. Aside from a recent bad start in Oakland of all places, Bryan Bello has had all quality starts since June 4, going 6+ innings and 3 or fewer ER each time. Consistent!

It's that time of year when those tempting big dogs can kick you in the ass. That's what happened to me yesterday, as my even-moneyish Boston pick managed to win, but the White Sox were shut down 2-0.

Aside from a few short slumps, I've been mostly consistently winning in MLB this season, sticking mostly to small favorites and small dogs, eschewing the ploppyish big favorites and mostly avoiding the wishful big dogs. I've long felt that there is too much variance in big MLB dogs after June 1, except in some cases where the game is seemingly a tossup at big dog odds.

Today I just have one totals pick for you.

NY Mets (Senga) at Kansas City (Ragans) - Under 9 -118

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

It's that time of year when those tempting big dogs can kick you in the ass. That's what happened to me yesterday, as my even-moneyish Boston pick managed to win, but the White Sox were shut down 2-0.

Aside from a few short slumps, I've been mostly consistently winning in MLB this season, sticking mostly to small favorites and small dogs, eschewing the ploppyish big favorites and mostly avoiding the wishful big dogs. I've long felt that there is too much variance in big MLB dogs after June 1, except in some cases where the game is seemingly a tossup at big dog odds.

Today I just have one totals pick for you.

NY Mets (Senga) at Kansas City (Ragans) - Under 9 -118

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I’ve had a total heater where I’ve won probably 16 of 20 games. All plus odds outside one -120. Everything I touch lately wins. Betting a bunch of home team run lines, and they’re generally winning easily. Bet right into Dylan Crease’s face last night as he just doesn’t have it this year and it was 7-0 after 2. Nice no sweat win.

I know I’ve been on 2 of the 3 no hitters this year. First one I’ve been on right side of. One was a great San pick earlier this year where we got no hit iirc. He’ll remember better if he had wrong side of no hitter. Certainly was a no hitter through 7. Valdez kills the Tribe. He was 4-0 against them and they generally struggle against lefties. Add in all the trades and their already anemic lineup is pathetic. Our middle relief has been so bad, I didn’t expect it to be as close as 2-0, but I’ll take it. Actually lost value last two days as I almost just tacked on Dodgers to make it a parlay, but didn’t feel like losing a bet with a -290 add on. Would have been real value had I added in the run lines, but betting home team run lines is bad enough with one team.


I’d guess 15 of the 20 bets is betting the Braves, Astros, and Texas to cover, or betting against the A’s, Royals, Pirates, Chisox. Also was betting Az to cool off.

I’m just betting against the tankers to lose by 2 every day and they’re living up to their futility. Nothing crazy. Wish I had been pressing my bets, but just sticking to $500-1k. I just kind of studied the teams at the All Star break and decided what I thought the trajectory of the teams were and I’ve been pretty on.

I only have two superstitions. First was you could never knock out the short stack on any 2000-2010 era online cash game until you got them in bad five times. My second is this thread is a jinx every time I post a bet. I’m so hot I’ll throw caution to the wind. Probably a straight L.

I’m going Rangers and SF ML parlay for +131”

Last couple nights

Single @
+145
Won
Aug 2 • 2023 At 04:55:29 PM
Ticket ID: 60400337
Run Line: TEX Rangers -1.5
CHI White Sox @ TEX Rangers


Single @
+118
Won
Aug 1 • 2023 At 05:39:24 PM
Ticket ID: 60368070
Run Line: HOU Astros -1.5
CLE Guardians @ HOU Astros

Spotted ChiSox 3 and the Giants had 2 hits and still won my parlay. These streaks where you run like the sun are too rare, but fun. Makes me want to buy a lotto ticket. Also put smaller bet on SF and Dodgers ML parlay at +135. That Sears isn’t nearly as bad as his record with a WHIP barely over 1, but Dodgers should be able to win the game hopefully. Urias has been very good at home and shit on the road

Here’s a positively dreadful slate of pitcher matchups for a Friday BCR

Not feeling creative and a bit lazy. Try to beat the morning lines

DraftKings
SGP -125
Altuve 1+ hit
Astros team total over 3.5 (alt line)
trusting Astros offense is crazy

SGP -145
Mountcastle 1+ hit
Orioles team total over 3.5 (alt)

SGP + SGP = +204

Some stupid Padres (Yu Darvish) are starting to hit and are facing Bo Miller Dodgers …. kinda interesting
Soto .354 6HR 16RBI & Kim .435 4HR 6RBI last 15 days for instance.
Padres are criminally dysfunctional and thus irresistible

I can’t hit those SGP for anything and will jinx yours just for touching it. I’m sticking to the formula of betting against the garbage post ASB. Another home team run line. I understand how horrible they are, but have been watching this pirates rookie since they brought him up. He’s tricky first time through the lineup and then it’s batting practice. Might have a bright future, but not yet. Be surprised if it isn’t 6-1 after 6.

Brewers -1.5 + 118

Bobby Miller Dodgers has been trending better so his surface numbers are misleading. He’s not awful.

I wanna do a strikeout prop over 5 and Dodger team total (avoid choosing sides)

Bobby Miller props are off the board at DraftKings. Raised eyebrows

Padres and Dodgers lineups out and the Miller strikeout prop went to 5.5 and that’s a bridge too far.

I like white Mariners vs Angels and their shit bullpen

Miami (Luzardo) +122 at Texas (Montgomery)

Colorado (Flexen) at St. Louis (Wainwright) - over 9.5 -115

WORLD CUP WOMEN

SWEDEN +245 VS USA

Total once again was easily correct. Rockies already up 8-2 in the 4th. EZ game.

Unfortunately, Luzardo was a big luzar, and it's 4-2 Rangers after 6. I don't see the Marlins and their shit offense coming back from this.

Sadly I was so close to also betting Rockies moneyline (was over +170) but I was convinced Flexen would also get bombed, so I took the safe route and bet the over, knowing Wainwright would also get hammered. If the pitcher going for Colorado was just a bit better than Flexen, 100% I would have taken the Rockies, too.

Oh well.

Looking like 1-1, but can't do worse than that.