*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Sanlmar]

I’m waffling so hard on StL AZ
Went into it wanting the +130 STL

Gallen sucks day games recently but home away trumps that in my book. He ain’t been great. Flaherty is so unpredictable. I guess that’s on me. DBacks been sad lately and STL rather hot. Gonna pass

Dodgers v lefties and bullpen concerns both sides. Gonsolin hurt? wtf. Prolly won’t go long.
Been spewing Dodgers lately but irresistible

Kikuchi 5+K’s & Jays TT o2.5 +100 (DK SGP)


I have cigars for Bryan Bello Sawks paternity …. Playing ATL action on baby value. Lol. One time or twins idc.

[Sanlmar]

We both had super easy wins.

I was so close to pushing the STL button too

Kikuchi had 8 strikeouts & Jays have 8 so far ✅

I have for later

Houston/Mets parlay +133

Oakland +1.5 -110 (half unit)
Oakland ML +196 (half unit)

Astros -162 (no love) Red Sox Bello should be with his wife

Mets +128

[Dan Druff]

San, good call on the Kikuchi/Toronto stuff today. Dodgers looked horrible. I feel bad for the people who went to this game in the hot sun. Sadly, I would have gone to last night's exciting comeback (down 7-3 in the 9th, ended up winning in 10th), but it was gonna be like 90 degrees at game time (at night!), so I said fuck it.

Benjamin really likes going to Dodgers games, but he doesn't like it when it's hot, so I try to stick to good weather games, which usually isn't tough to find in LA. I might go next week, as it will get cooler.

Detroit was rained out, so no action on that bet.

I'm looking at Oakland, and have been all day. I might fire on it, too. Stand by.

[Dan Druff]

Gallen continued to get torched by the longball, as I predicted. He gave up 2, though in his defense, the Cards hit 3 more off the Arizona bullpen.

Still, that's now 12 HR allowed since June 4, after allowing just 2 prior to that. Gallen's HR issues, while only accounting for 2 of the 5 runs he gave up, were the main reason for this pick, though I also felt Flaherty would put out a solid start, which he mostly did.

[Dan Druff]

Okay, let's look at this Battle of the Bay coming up this evening.

The A's have rookie Freddy Tarnok going, who is likely to throw 3 innings like he did last time out. Tarnok has done in his brief MLB stint essentially the same as what he was doing in AAA. In both the minors and Majors, he's battling control issues yet otherwise not allowing that many runs. He's then followed by Hogan Harris, who pitched well through late June, but then got hit pretty hard 3 consecutive times from June 29 to July 15. In his last outing, however, he pitched fairly well against Houston.

The Giants have Ryan Walker starting, but don't read too much into that. He's going to be an opener, probably not going more than 2 innings, and will be followed by Alex Wood. As has been typical of Wood's career, he's been inconsistent in 2023. On June 22, he got bombed by the Padres. On June 27, he pitched great against the Blue Jays. On July 2, he was super wild and gave up 5 runs to the Mets in less than 2 innings. He bounced back and threw 5 shutout innings in relief against the Rockies (in SF) on July 8. Finally back as a starter, he allowed 8 baserunners, and lifted in the 4th, though he only gave up 1 run. The lowly Nationals hit him for 5 runs last time out.

The key here is Wood. Is he worth a 2-to-1 favorite, given his recent struggles, or is it +EV to oppose him?

I think I gotta agree with Sanlmar here. While the A's are a horrid team and the two pitchers they have lined up are uninspiring, Wood's control issues and general struggles lately don't bode well for him, especially on an evening with a 9-11mph wind blowing out. It is cool in SF tonight (60 degrees or so), so that will somewhat negate the wind regarding the HR advantage, but still, overall the wind should help carry some balls out.

A's have also gone 3-4 in their last 7, which for them counts as a hot streak. They were notched 2-1 by the Giants last night.

If you can, don't bet on "listed" for the Giants, as Walker starting doesn't matter. We are focused on Wood. Probably won't matter, though, as we are close to gametime.

Oakland (Tarnok) +200 at San Francisco (any/Walker)

[Dan Druff]

Hmm, too late for me because I already placed the bet. But you might want to "action" the whole bet, because ESPN claims Harris is starting. I think ESPN is wrong, though. I see Tarnok everywhere else, including this official A's post from 2 hours ago:

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/Athletics/status/1684328581336539137

[Sanlmar]

I had Tarnok starting 5 hours ago. I think he goes longer than traditional opener.

It’s a late night pit game

I’m getting savaged night games

[Dan Druff]

I had Tarnok starting 5 hours ago. I think he goes longer than traditional opener.

It’s a late night pit game

I’m getting savaged night games

We're getting savaged again. 2-0 already, which for Oakland is like being behind 6-0.

I've gotta stay away from these temptations to bet on horrible teams.

[Dan Druff]

Wow, Jacob Junis gave us life by coughing up 3 runs.

Alex Wood finally made an appearance, in the 5th. And he's pitching well. We got good Alex Wood. Damnit.

But at least it's a precarious 3-3 tie, though SF has got a guy on 2nd.

San your +1.5 might end up being the winner, but I hope they just take it outright so I can win mine and you can win both halves.

[Dan Druff]

Welp.. I don't think we're getting there. Austin Slater hit a 2-run bomb in the bottom of the 6th. 5-3 SF.

[Starbucks Spunk Bucket]

Last minute playing my rush blind at the 3M

Adam Hadwin 35/1 (outright)
Lucas Glover 55/1 &
Taylor Pendrith 60/1 (both e/w)

[Sanlmar]

Dear Druff,

Wash (M Gore) +158 v Mets (Scherzer) … take a look

Scherzer allows fly balls and Wash doesn’t strikeout much. Bad for old man Scherzer.

I dunno how the money will come into this. You suspect Mets Scherzer but Wash has been playing well imo. I’m buying now with listed pitchers. I’ll take a closer look at splits and lineups later.

I don’t understand NYY Cole and Judge -124. Why so cheap? The Judge news hits the public and we at least have CLV - whatever you think that’s worth.

[Dan Druff]

Dare I go under in this era of offense?

Atlanta (Smith-Shawver) vs Milwaukee (Rea) - Under 11 +100
Colorado (Blach) vs Oakland (Medina) - Under 12.5 -120 (under 12 -110 ok)

[lol wow]

im going in on this mil brew dogs under

[lol wow]

i mean 3 runs 2 innings weeeeeeeeeeeeeere gonnnnnnnna be fine

[lol wow]

we got 7 to play with yall

[Sanlmar]

back by public demand

Dodgers Hate Bet of the Day

Doyers starter Michael Grove under 15.5 outs recorded -132 (FD)
proposing Grove does not pitch beyond 5th inning

[lol wow]

aaaaand were fucked

[Sanlmar]

Jays can’t hit LHP to save their lives. It’s unAmerican

[lol wow]

i missed his rockies play how do we bounce back late games