Can confirm my prick has a better track record than my picks, yet both are world class.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDime
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Can confirm my prick has a better track record than my picks, yet both are world class.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDime
So what effect has the new basketball had Druff?
If not decreasing scoring just more randomness?
As baseball switched balls there were actionable plays to be made.
To be out in front of this woulda been pretty cool.
Quote:
under bettors are making a killing. Unders are 59-34 (63%) on the season.
Underwater: What’s Behind the NBA’s Early Unders Rage?
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/un...jmRAAAAA%3D%3D
I’m kidding Blunder.
Raiders star wide receiver Henry Ruggs III -- the 12th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft -- was involved in a serious car accident in Las Vegas Tuesday morning.
Looking like DUI causing death. What's the penalty for that in Vegas? In Canada you would likely be looking at around 4-7 yrs in jail depending on some other factors.
Edit: Do we think about taking a Giants position at all? Does this shake up the locker room? Or what happens in Vegas stays there?
10xx rotation #’s are regulation so the woeful Toronto team taking money
Half unit bets. Kinda splashing here. Anything you especially like Simp? Firing before goalies confirmed admittedly
Seems like most matchups have at least 1 goalie not confirmed yet, wtf
Kings v Jazz u222
and Braves to win.
Soler at bat was incredible. Ball left the park
3-0
I am on under 81 on the Toledo game, and I will probably lose it halftime, no defense in this game. Under 81 who loses that shit. Fuck, I have been on a huge cooler lately. Whatever.
I’m contemplating doing something wreckless on the GB +1 vs Kansas City
Aaron Rodgers has Covid… what recklessness were you thinking exactly?Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
I was looking to do 10-20x what I normally bet. Won’t be happening now……Quote:
Originally Posted by SandwichAaron Rodgers has Covid… what recklessness were you thinking exactly?Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
How do we not do a Oilers/Avs parlay tonight?
or Oilers/Carolina?
Cause AV’s have sooo many injuries. Blue Jackets line has fallen like 50 points since last night. I had to take Jackets +156 WQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Blue Jackets Avs over total 5.5 now that I think of it. W
I did Hawks Canes 1P over W just off psuOtto numbers. Wish I had 5.5 over but missed it. Maybe live.
I did the side Canes -140 W but I’m a little concerned by that low number. Nothing about it feels or acts right.
Degen juices coursing thru my veins now.
You can get almost 4:1 on a Blue Jackets ML & game over 5.5 parlay. W
I have zero.zero NFL mostly cause I’m not interested enough to plow through NFL numbers.
Thank goodness. Green Bay isn’t the only mess.
I will reiterate my strategy posted many weeks ago that as NFL lines get more efficient (Covid aside) playing off them with teasers is the bet for the times. The fact that legal books are reacting by charging more teaser juice confirms my belief. Offshore is still tight juice. I’ve done very well not working very hard and not really watching.
I can easily take a week off.
If you told me 5 years ago I’d be betting nightly hockey I’d have laughed. I blame Simpdog. I remember him teaching me such basic stuff as starting goalies. It’s been fun and profitable.
Surprised you ‘tahds haven’t reacted to the NBA “UNDERS” article above. I hate NBA but it’s very very interesting. I think there is still some opportunity left on that bone.
Somehow I'm 0-9 despite having 3 unders in those picks, even with unders doing well for everyone else this year.
Here are two picks on the same game, coming up in a little more than an hour:
Clippers at Minnesota - Under 212.5
Clippers -2.5 at Minnesota
Kawhi/Preston/Ibaka/Morris OUT for Clippers, Russell OUT for Minnesota
I haven’t had the time to breakdown the PGA this week. Until this point I just can’t justify taking L Ko in the Saudi LET at +400. She is the most likely winner, but these super short prices in golf are just not a winning play long term.
I have for the Portugual Masters 1K on Horsfield +3000 and $500 on Horsfield First Round leader +3500. He is in the morning wave. We came a one stroke short last time we bet him first round. This is a big gamble. I will reflect the $1500 in bets when I get a chance in the bankroll as this is enough time before tee off. Currently up 15K. So well will put $1500 in play this week and if Horsfield shits bed, this will be our last dance.
Bets for Nov 1 -Nov 7(Week 14)
New
Portugal Majors 1K Sam Horsfield to win +3000, $500 Horsfield 1st Round Leader
LET Saudi - L Ko 2K +400
Start $50,000 Remaining $61,500 Current Week $0 Last Week $-1,000
Total Win/Loss +$15K
————
Taking the shit price. Went back and forth on it. Had to even out the high variance bets on Sam. Unfortunately last weeks win doesn’t count. You may have difficulty finding LET odds. Bet MGM has them.
*LET - Ladies European Tour. No sanctioned LPGA event this weekend.
I avoided the Oilers/Avs parlay, thanks. Didn't have enough courage to take the Blue Jackets.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarCause AV’s have sooo many injuries. Blue Jackets line has fallen like 50 points since last night. I had to take Jackets +156 WQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Blue Jackets Avs over total 5.5 now that I think of it. W
I did Hawks Canes 1P over W just off psuOtto numbers. Wish I had 5.5 over but missed it. Maybe live.
I did the side Canes -140 W but I’m a little concerned by that low number. Nothing about it feels or acts right.
Degen juices coursing thru my veins now.
You can get almost 4:1 on a Blue Jackets ML & game over 5.5 parlay. W
Eichel is gone (finally). Buffalo +160. I don't view Seattle as a -180 team against anyone in the league. DO NOT release the Kraken tonight.
Islanders -130.
Bets for Nov 1 -Nov 7(Week 14)
New
Portugal Majors 1K Sam Horsfield to win +3000, $500(L -$500) Horsfield 1st Round Leader
LET Saudi - L Ko 2K +400
Start $50,000 Remaining $61,500 Current Week $-$500 Last Week $-1,000
Total Win/Loss +$14.5K
————
Good news is Lydia finally got off to a good start and is tied for the lead. Bad news is the first round bet for Horsefield is dust. It was a high variance bet. But he’s the type of guy who can go super low. 7 birdies/4 bogeys.
He is still in this tournament. When I sweat these bets that are not televised, I typically will put the threesome alone and that way when a score updates for one, I know it will soon for the other. In a cruel twist of fate the guy who had this ridiculous 10 under round was paired with Horsefield, and when he went to 3 under after 7 my blurry eyes though it was Horsfield at first. Anyways I do feel this is an outlier and he will come back to the pack. We do see these on the Euro Tour from time to time. Guy is ranked 400th or so in the world.
Be nice if Lydia can continue to play well and get me a rebate on all those close calls.
Islanders Canadiens under 5.5 -130 (sigh)
This is public as fuck and so obvious.
My question is this. SEMYON VARLAMOV is returning from the IR from his mystery injury. He was ready last weekend apparently. Coach saying he wanted to keep the goalie situation in rhythm. Varly is great, no doubt. Will he be rusty? game speed? Is there sneaky value with the 1P over or Game over?
Trying to get cute usually results in punishment.
Talk to me
Wanna hate on VGK again. I’m getting a late start today. Gonna dive in now.
Is Varlamov playing tonight? Nothing confirmed yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Speaking of goalies, Adin Hill confirmed for Sharks. Adding Blues -120.
Hill has had 2 great games in the last 5...both against Montreal.
Speaking of good prop bets. Draisaitl is 7-2 for assists this year. I have mentioned it a few times. I think at this point it should be an autobet unless the numbers get whacky. Usually -130 to -150 around here.
I am betting he will. I got all wrapped up in the story, I admit. Not confirmed and yeah that is getting concerning at this point. It’s a stay away for smart people.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdogIs Varlamov playing tonight? Nothing confirmed yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Speaking of goalies, Adin Hill confirmed for Sharks. Adding Blues -120.
Hill has had 2 great games in the last 5...both against Montreal.
Speaking of good prop bets. Draisaitl is 7-2 for assists this year. I have mentioned it a few times. I think at this point it should be an autobet unless the numbers get whacky. Usually -130 to -150 around here.
Pesky Sens and hurt VGK
Vegas Golden Knights/Ottawa Senators over 1½ -120 for 1st Period L
Vegas Golden Knights/Ottawa Senators over 5½ -109 for Game W
Kraken at home are a 1P machine. I prolly have no friends with this spot
St. Louis Blues/San Jose Sharks over 1½ -115 for 1st Period W
Louis Blues/San Jose Sharks over 5½ -117 for Game W
Throw some shade. I’m looking for feedback and ideas
I’ve been doing these same game ploppy teaser bets which I know is stupid but I think I’m running perfect with them. Dumb and dumber action bet for short money.
Teaser L
Indianapolis Colts -4½ for Game
New York Jets/Indianapolis Colts under 52 for Game
Sorokin confirmed.
Knowing next to nothing about the NBA except Lakers and Boston and all the love/hate ….. had to fade the Boston hate and the Lakers love.
Did a little teaser just to make me smile …. and it did. Thunder and Celts both won outright.
Never in the history of stupidity wagering has someone so thoroughly wasted 26½ points - worth it.
Buffalo +160 lost 5-2 Giant L
Islanders -130 easy win
Blues -120 win
2-1 day. Guess I shouldn't try to impress Druff with +160 bets.
Hawks +150 (here I go again on my own). They beat Ottawa and played a close game with Carolina. Are they back or was that a tease?
Oilers waiting on goalie. If it's Smith I might take the night off? He could be rusty. *draisaitl assist alert.
Anaheim -175 -> Maybe throw this in a parlay I don't love it at -175.
Here we go again, UFC 268. Saturday promises to be a wild night at Madison Square Garden in NYC...
Bruno Souza +275, .5u
Chris Barnett +110, 1u
Edmen Shabazyan +105, 1u
Phil Hawes -300, 2u
Al Iaquinta +155, 1u
Alex Pereira -250, 1.75u
Billy Quarantillo +170, .75u
Frankie Edgar +140, 1u
Zhang Weili -115, 1u
Parlay Ian Garry win, Phil Hawes win and Weili/Namajunas goes distance +270, 1u
Horsfield and Ko are both live. Lydia couldn’t putt for shit on the back nine. Sam missed a short par putt to end with a bogey second day in a row. Happy to be live. But always tilting to end the round poorly.
Was waiting for the status all day about questionable Brogdon and Lamb in the Pacers/Blazers game.
Finally, some clarity. Both are out.
https://twitter.com/Pacers/status/1456791296979447809
Portland -5.5 vs Indiana
Nice. Fading the Lakers has been like printing money so far. I wonder how long until the books adjust and start making them big dogs every game (even when playing bad teams at home).Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarKnowing next to nothing about the NBA except Lakers and Boston and all the love/hate ….. had to fade the Boston hate and the Lakers love.
Did a little teaser just to make me smile …. and it did. Thunder and Celts both won outright.
Never in the history of stupidity wagering has someone so thoroughly wasted 26½ points - worth it.
I took Portland too. None of those guys matter except Brogdon (who has already missed a bunch of games) so not so much the injury report, but betting Portland will be motivated to play good after a very disappointing East road trip where they lost to some bad teams.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Took Stanford +10. They are quickly about to be down 14-0 in the first. Oops.
I think you cursed me, Kalam.
Or I cursed you.
Brogdon was the main concern, yes.
Portland was up 59-48 and I thought we'd cruise to an easy win. Then they slowly chunked off the lead and were down 5 with less than 4 minutes to go. Amazingly they had a decent shot at covering, holding the ball up 4 with 1 minute left, but of course they missed and Portland sunk a 3, and that was that. Portland wins by 4.
At least I can't kick myself for not betting when it was -5, which is what it was before Brogdon was confirmed out. Either way I lose.
When you're running bad, these just never fall your way. Kind like in poker when you're running bad, and you flop top set on a board like J62 rainbow, and you somehow know you're going to lose the hand anyway (and do).
I have been doing decent in basketball (mostly fading Lakers), so looks like you cursed me. Sabonis actually fouled Lilliard at end of game, which could have given us cover if he hit both free throws, but they weren’t in penalty yet. Lol.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Verm - where we at today?
Verm is buying Liberty downQuote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
This should be right up your alley
Mississippi -7½ -115
Liberty has lots and lots of money but talent? Makes no sense to me. Punish Verm. It’s what Jesus would have wanted.
I don’t chase steam or sharp money. I like wins more.
Yet, I’m on UNC -2.5 like every fucking sharp.
Look at Wake Forest. Line was frozen at -2.5
Every mope is on the over but I’m gonna leave that alone
I really need to rake leaves and skip trying to nuke out college football.
I’m gonna indulge myself with a little nostalgia. It’s a PFA thing.
I bet the other Jesus school yesterday, Boston College. There was a little drama about whether the BC qb was gonna play (hand surgery). He did
I can’t bet a weather game or BC without thinking of Daly. Loved sparring with him. RIP. His touch of immortality.
Mac Jones Patriots ROY was a bold call of his. Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields etc but Daly knew the importance of Belichick. I think Daly got a better number. Great call. Ja'Marr Chase is a problem but if Patriots keep winning this will work itself out.
Little ramble.
Give due credit to the mopes and their far superior over (58-55)Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I will sheepishly go to the window and collect my prize.
2-0
I’m done with football today. Running like god but I know regression is due
Another 2-1 day. Weird 4bet doesn't comment on two of those in a row.......Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Carolina +120. Who doesn't like +120 on a coin flip? Sign me up.
Leafs -130 . Boston is their nemesis in the playoffs not regular season anymore
Buffalo -105 at home.
San, a lot of games today are 5.5. Can you research and give me the cliff notes? Running to a kids hockey game which is more stressful than sweating a big bet.
Edit: just to keep track Draisaitl is now 8-2 for an assist.