Special shout out to the Gay Pride Dodgers.
They know precisely who they are starting and who will follow the opener. They have even prepared the post game press conference that addresses today’s loss and why Mary Hart should remain optimistic.
:gay
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Special shout out to the Gay Pride Dodgers.
They know precisely who they are starting and who will follow the opener. They have even prepared the post game press conference that addresses today’s loss and why Mary Hart should remain optimistic.
:gay
Today I went with the blanket unders idea and some sides, here is the card:
Hawks -2
Hawks under 224.5
Bucks +2.5
Bucks under 224
Warriors -3
Warriors under 228
gl
Dodgers gonna bullpen. We knew that. Opening with Evil Knebel.
Let’s start with this.
Dodgers pitcher Julio Urias visibly showed up Gavin Lux over his poor effort in center field
I think the Dodgers have quit. The attitude is poor and turning inward. They are tired and mismanaged (whole org not just Roberts). They know this iteration of the Dodgers and this chapter is coming to an end.
Plus money Braves with Max Fried? This is an example of the sharp playoff handicapping from the books Druff preaches about? LOL
The only question is has LA quit on the Dodgers? I saw the fans streaming out of the stadium before the 9th. I think they have. Imagine Atlanta’s mood in contrast.
As you know, normally we wait for the dumb Los Angeles money. If we like the Dodgers we try to bet before LA wakes up. Dodger always are lined heavily in their favor. The Dodger tax. Yeah, playoffs are so tough to beat cause razor sharp lines - c’mon Druff…. not how sportsbooks operate.
Now I am holding a 16:1 Dodgers Red Sox World Series matchup and that would be nice but that’s in the past.
Baseball - 919 Atlanta Braves +100 for 1st 5 Innings
Baseball - 919 Atlanta Braves +127 for Game
If Dodger money comes in (it won’t) we take another helping.
I am pumping out nonsense in volume here. My time is valuable Simpdog. I ask for very little in return.
Let’s dish those NHL picks.
Carolina money line
Oilers -1.5
The useless fucking Todgers started Kelly not Knebel.
I can’t believe it.
AAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!
My bets are gonna get cancelled.
I hope they lose 30-0 those cock suckers. It’s gonna be hard not to tilt. I am so upset
I took SMU -13, which seemed like the right play as they quickly got a 24 point lead. But then inexplicably after getting behind so much there was no chance to win, Tulane decided to throw the kitchen sink just to try to cover. So far in 2nd half we have a fake FG, going for it repeatedly on 4th down in their own side of field and a successful onside kick. WTF? So they are going to lose by 10 instead of 20. What is going on here?
You definitely have a sweat, but I think you will be ok. But college is tricky in the 4th quarter, I cannot tell you how many times I have been burned in the last two minutes with a freak interception, fumble for six, etc.. Of course, I have also been rewarded as well, goes both ways I guess.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
I shall deposit this Pick/NFL here on a Thursday so it is a hidden Gem Sun night or un-seen eyesore Sun eve....
Money line Parlay
NY JETS a Good Spot for a upset...I like the 7 line. it is boding and begging for a DOG straight up W.
Parlay with
INDIANOPOLIS Colts
50/585 shd be about right.....
good luck.
I guess when you are 1-5 with no hope for a bowl covering 13 points against a ranked team is your SB. I could have taken Tulane +3 at halftime. That is really what I should have done. That is clearly massively EV, given how these teams are playing. But there was no indication Tulane was going to treat the 4th Q of a blowout like this. Who the hell does a fake FG on 4th and 7 and an onside kick when they are down 20 points?Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullYou definitely have a sweat, but I think you will be ok. But college is tricky in the 4th quarter, I cannot tell you how many times I have been burned in the last two minutes with a freak interception, fumble for six, etc.. Of course, I have also been rewarded as well, goes both ways I guess.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
I think the Colts might be ready for a playoff run, in that they might peel off 4 wins a row and be neck and neck with Tennessee. Jets, I dunno, this teams just screams 3 wins max, but yeah any NFL team can cover a 7. You'll earn this parlay for sure, going to be a sweat but doable.Quote:
Originally Posted by shoeshine box
You have a 9 point buffer as of 9 minutes left. You should be in good shape, but yeah, I get the sweat, Tulane gets a quick score and somehow manages a field goal at the end, SMU takes a knee and you are short. It happens all the time. I usually get burned on over/under, but I have to be honest I had an interception return with 20 seconds left which got me over on a certain loss a few weeks ago. Good luck!Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamI guess when you are 1-5 with no hope for a bowl covering 13 points against a ranked team is your SB. I could have taken Tulane +3 at halftime. That is really what I should have done. That is clearly massively EV, given how these teams are playing. But there was no indication Tulane was going to treat the 4th Q of a blowout like this. Who the hell does a fake FG on 4th and 7 and an onside kick when they are down 20 points?Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
I think I am gonna need Tulane to turn the ball over. I dont see how they dont score 2 TDs otherwise in the last 7 minutes the way these teams are playing. Anything is possible, but still kicking myself on not taking Tulane +3 at half.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullYou have a 9 point buffer as of 9 minutes left. You should be in good shape, but yeah, I get the sweat, Tulane gets a quick score and somehow manages a field goal at the end, SMU takes a knee and you are short. It happens all the time. I usually get burned on over/under, but I have to be honest I had an interception return with 20 seconds left which got me over on a certain loss a few weeks ago. Good luck!Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Refs have called 3 personal fouls on SMU in the last couple minutes. Looks like the refs are in on it. I am calling it now, if SMU gets anything going on the next drive the refs are going to call a penalty to kill the drive. Guaranteed. Sucks.
You'll go crazy second guessing halftimes, they are always a sucker bet. Stay away from them. Yes, I do them in the heat of the moment, they rarely pay off. Best to stick with the opening line and ride it.Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamI think I am gonna need Tulane to turn the ball over. I dont see how they dont score 2 TDs otherwise in the last 7 minutes the way these teams are playing. Anything is possible, but still kicking myself on not taking Tulane +3 at half.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Refs have called 3 personal fouls on SMU in the last couple minutes. Looks like the refs are in on it. Sucks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullYou'll go crazy second guessing halftimes, they are always a sucker bet. Stay away from them. Yes, I do them in the heat of the moment, they rarely pay off. Best to stick with the opening line and ride it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Yep. Last week I bet 2 second halfs on games I had bet the game and was in great shape to give myself massive middles, and lost both second halves and easily covered the game bets.
Also UNLV +5
Obviously Druff went to the game
So my ploppy parlay won.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Simpdog standard 2-0
The Dodgers make sure my losing bets are cancelled before the first pitch.
Great day but of course, everything I win will go to my therapist.
5 hours after the game Druff is still in traffic.
4BET does not rep on winning posts.
UFC Fight Night 196 on ESPN+ at Apex in Las Vegas. Prelims start at 1pm Eastern Saturday….
Zviad Lazishvili -125, 1u
Livia Renata Souza -125, 1u
Jeff Molina -160, 1u
Khama Worthy +155, 1u
Tabatha Ricci -240, 2u
David Onama +360, .75u
Gregory Rodrigues -105, 1u
Parlay Villanueva, D. Grant & M. Vettori +950, .5u
Started out really hot in the NBA, so I’m sure I’ll jinx myself here. Have Pacers ML +102 tonight, and Pacers -4 +143. Beal is a little banged up and this is dropping fast. When I went to bet it I had to approve odds changes twice moving against me before I got it in. I assume he will go, but I liked Pacers before it became more questionable. Any of these alternate lines I’m always at maybe a quarter of a unit at most on. As I said, Wizards are probably a lock now that I’m posting it, but ok straight up NBA games I’m at five straight and 2-3 on the alternate lines.
Bets for Oct 18-Oct 24(Week 12)
New
Euro Mallorca Open (Current Odds For the Weekend)- L. Canter $1700 at +900 (MGM)
Current
LPGA BMW - Lydia Ko $1,000 at +1600
Start $50,000 Remaining $66,000 Current Week $0 Last Week $-2,000
Total Win/Loss +$18,700
————
I was a bit titled by Lydia just always finding away to put herself behind the 8 ball. Originally I was not going to play Canter as he did shit bed last week. However, it is now or never. I would fully expect the leader to come back to the pack at this course. I see him +850 BOL & +800 Caesar’s. Obviously I like the play.
Red Flops -105
@Simp. I app that compliment. Part of it is I have had over a dozen 2nd and 3rds in the last year or so and those just count as Losses. They took time off my life span but that’s about it. For the most part they don’t track when you are close. If I cashed 33% percent of those than I guess maybe it would be a different story. But I would have a lot more money in the bankroll so I wouldn’t give a shit.
In general the belief is that golf has so many variables and the outright market is essentially impossible to beat long term. The tracking software for these apps to detect “sharp” bettors is by and large tracking those who consistently beat the line on straight wagers. Those people will have their bet maximums cut down to a nominal amount eventually, essentially making the platform useless to them. At least that is how the Apps abuse the laws in Jersey now.
Jersey 1st state to take in $1b
Please remember those offshore books and all they have done for us.Quote:
Sportsbooks in New Jersey won a net $82.4 million during a September that featured the start of football seasons. All told, a record $1.01 billion was bet in the state.
Can I take Edmonton +109 vs VGK or would that be a charitable donation to an offshore book?
Wanna fade Bruins too but that’s prolly a nervous disorder.
Help
I got 8.5 small last night just knowing it would hit 9. Beating the line is not as important as winning the bet though.Quote:
Originally Posted by BlunderMaker
I wonder about a YRFI.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Bradley Beal out. No guarantee, but you can still get Pacers -2 as of a moment ago.
Phoenix Suns preparing to counter against forthcoming ESPN report with accusations against owner
The next owner is set for the sexual and racism chopping block. Bombshell 3,2,1
ftpjesus
This is great cause I have Suns even vs Lakers from previous …. Why why do I do NBA
Yup, I like this one as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRQuote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Bradley Beal out. No guarantee, but you can still get Pacers -2 as of a moment ago.
Indiana -2 at Washington
I know we say don't be results oriented when we take a beat. But in all honesty. life is too short to not be somewhat results oriented. Doesn't just apply to gambling.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI got 8.5 small last night just knowing it would hit 9. Beating the line is not as important as winning the bet though.Quote:
Originally Posted by BlunderMaker
I wonder about a YRFI.
I mean I guess we are lucky to be tied at half considering they shot 77% from 3 on 13 attempts and 100% on FTs. Wish we had the over. Not a lot of defense out there.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffYup, I like this one as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Indiana -2 at Washington
Their starters haven’t missed a 3 yet. Thank god we are shooting good also, but not that good.
Tempted to make a play on the second half as that’s not sustainable, but have enough on this one already.
Pretty bad play at the tail end of the 4th, where they had a 123-120 lead. Going to OT 123-123, and had to fade a last-second shot by Washington to do it.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRI mean I guess we are lucky to be tied at half considering they shot 77% from 3 on 13 attempts and 100% on FTs. Wish we had the over. Not a lot of defense out there.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Their starters haven’t missed a 3 yet. Thank god we are shooting good also, but not that good.
Tempted to make a play on the second half as that’s not sustainable, but have enough on this one already.
Never easy.
I normally always stay away from outrageous spreads in college. But Kansas is so bad, and the freshman QB for OU is red hot, I see a fantastic blowout, OU -38.5. I normally would do the over but I don't think Kansas will get above 14 points. I could easily see one of those 59-7 games.
Obviously this bet is a whiff. Only solace is it was $100. Fuck OU has burned me twice this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
I do have $200 on the under for MI - NW, 44.5. this one is tricky. Hopefully Harbaugh does not air it out and sticks to the run.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullObviously this bet is a whiff. Only solace is it was $100. Fuck OU has burned me twice this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
@simpdog
Can you look at Toronto in regulation -110 & rested Kraken -140?
BCR: You didn't drag me to anything. I had already selected Indiana, and went to post it here. Then I saw you had picked it already, and said, "Oh cool, BCR agrees." Wasn't a bad pick, just fell on the wrong side in a close game.
PIPES: I am not just betting to shoot off. Part of the enjoyment of my sportsbetting is attempting to do what many say can't be done long term -- beating the house juice and being a winning sportsbettor in spread/moneyline/totals picks. All playoffs have significantly more attention and the lines tend to be sharper. Due to the global nature of sportsbetting, there's a lot less of a homer effect on the lines. It's just too hard. Not interested, especially with another sports (NBA) starting anyway.
Ploppy time
Minnesota -7.5 vs. New Orleans
My book didn’t have the first bet luckily. I tailed the rest. I believe I win .75 unit and you lost .5Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandwich
Atlanta, again.
Someone smashed the total under. Fell to 8 just before first pitchQuote:
Originally Posted by BlunderMaker