Philly/Miami was a complete fail. Already a loss.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Angels/Seattle was a great pick. Already a win.
Up to White Sox / Detroit to make this a winning day.
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Philly/Miami was a complete fail. Already a loss.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Angels/Seattle was a great pick. Already a win.
Up to White Sox / Detroit to make this a winning day.
So here I am, rolling along in a low-scoring affair, 2-2 after 8. Then Detroit wallops 3 runs in the top of the 9th, and almost scores more.
Now it's 5-2 and I gotta sweat this bottom of the 9th. Complicating matters is that the rain is pouring down now.
What a gut punch the end of that game was. New Orleans was up 21-10 and had the ball with 8 minutes to go, and they basically told the Giants: "We are done trying. See if you can come back and win". And the Giants accepted the challenge and won.Quote:
Originally Posted by country978I think you'll be happy with your choice to do thatQuote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
New Orleans did nothing but run the ball, get predictably stuffed and punt the rest of the game, and the Giants scored 3 times in a row and won. He had a good career, but it looks like the game really has passed Sean Payton by. In 2021 you can't be up by 11 points, go 2-3 passing the ball with no turnovers for the rest of the game, and lose. It just isn't acceptable coaching. Maybe in 1961 that was passable, but in 2021 that is straight malfeasance.
Between that and the Oregon game, I think I really am done for awhile.
They held on 5-2, so I went 2-1 today.
Been a long time since I posted my record!
Through 6/25: 53-46-4 (+7.89 units)
Since then:
6/27: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
6/28: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
6/30: 1-1 (-0.05 units)
7/01: 1-0 (+1.75 units)
7/02: 2-1 (+0.80 units)
7/03: 2-0 (+1.93 units)
7/04: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
7/05: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
7/07: NO BET (pitcher didn't go)
7/08: 1-0 (+0.98 units)
7/09: 1-1 (-0.05 units)
7/10: 1-0 (+1.05 units)
7/11: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
7/21: 1-0 (+0.88 units)
7/23: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
7/24: 1-0 (+0.74 units)
7/26: 1-0 (+0.87 units)
7/27: 1-1 (-0.10 units)
7/28: 1-0 (+0.83 units)
7/30: 0-2-1 (-2.00 units)
7/31: 2-0 (+2.11 units)
8/02: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
8/03: 1-0 (+1.43 units)
8/05: 1-1 (+0.18 units)
8/06: 3-0 (+3.60 units)
8/07: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
8/09: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
8/10: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
8/11: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
8/13: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
8/14: 1-0 (+1.28 units)
8/17: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
8/18: 1-0 (+0.83 units)
8/19: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
8/26: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
8/29: 1-0 (+0.78 units)
8/30: 1-0 (+0.83 units)
9/03: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
9/04: 1-0 (+0.87 units)
9/07: 1-1 (-0.08 units)
9/16: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
9/17: 2-0 (+1.70 units)
9/18: 1-0 (+0.87 units)
9/20: 1-0 (+0.83 units)
9/21: 1-1 (-0.17 units)
9/22: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
9/23: 1-0 (+1.48 units)
9/27: 1-0 (+1.48 units)
9/28: 2-0 (+1.76 units)
9/29: 1-0 (+0.91 units)
9/30: 1-1 (-0.09 units)
10/1: 1-0 (+0.91 units)
10/2: 1-0 (+1.35 units)
10/3: 2-1 (+0.82 units)
TOTAL 6/27-10/3: 42-36-1 (+6.31 units)
GRAND TOTAL: 95-82-5 (+14.20 units)
Total games bet with result: 182
Total ROI: +7.80%
Each game was a 1 unit bet. I do this so you see my true record. Lots internet scamdicappers will just keep increasing fictional "units" bet to get out of the hole. I only use units here because my picks are a combo of moneylines and totals, neither of which are usually -110.
The end helped. In the final 12 games I bet, I went 10-2 with a +8.68 unit profit.
Very solid season. Only real trouble occurred between August 7 and August 26, where I went 2-11 and lost 8.89 units.
I won't be betting much on the playoffs.
Bets for Sep 27-Oct 3(Week 10)
Settled
PGA Sanderson (After R1) Sam Burns $1000 at +1400 (W +$14,000)
LPGA Shoprite SY Kim - $1,000 at +2800 (L -$1,000)
Start $50,000 Remaining $58,200 Current Week +$12,850 Last Week -$1,620
Total Win/Loss +8,200
————
Hope people had it. Nice to have that 5 figure week. Fighting through all those close calls. Burns was 55th for the week putting and still won. Going to enjoy this one.
Also the Giants had a TD which I don't understand how it was a TD.
John Ross had a TD where he fumbled the ball at the goal line into the end zone, but the ref called a TD immediately. AFTER the ref had called the TD and all the players had consequently stopped, Ross went over and recovered the ball in the end zone.
Then replay determined that Ross had fumbled before he went in, but they awarded him the TD on the fumble recovery, AFTER the ref had already signaled the play over. How in the world does the rule book say that is a TD? It is one thing if it is boom-boom. But I have never heard of someone being awarded a fumble recovery where they recovered the ball a full second AFTER the play had been ruled dead and everyone else had stopped playing.
I mean, I am not sure what the correct call should be. That is a weird spot. But it seems like it should be Giants ball at the 1 or a touchback. I don't know how you call a TD on a ball that was recovered a full second after the play was ruled dead and everyone had stopped playing.
1-2, -1.2 unitsQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Total on year 8-5, +2.5 units.
GB/Pitts hit 44, brutal.
Atlanta choked, brutal.
Bets for Oct 4-Oct 10(Week 11)
New
$500 Parlay
Spanish Open Rahm +250 & Senior PGA Constellation Mickelson +400 to win $8,250
Start $50,000 Remaining $57,700 Current Week $0 Last Week +12,850
Total Win/Loss +8,200
————
This is a very chalky week. Rahm opened at +250 and Mickelson +400 & certain books already moving them to +200 and +350 respectively. I don’t want to ship it at these odds but I think this play is a good compromise. I’ve never seen an open event with a guy as low as Rahm.
Been on a fucking cooler lately. Lost on LSU even though they were up late in the 3rd 19-10. Then I lost the point spread on the Pats last night. I am not pissed though on the Pats, Brady could have played it safe at the end, but instead chucked two end zone passes to Antonio Brown with a minute left. First one should have been a easy TD but Brown lost it in the lights. He catches either one and I win and make up my LSU loss. Mac Jones is going to be a huge star for the Pats.
I got the over 51.5 tonight on LV-LA. On paper this looks like a shootout.
It was plain awful!! I had the saints straight up -7 and had them in 2 teasers. And of course I had the bucs too. A most rotten weekend for betting.Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamWhat a gut punch the end of that game was. New Orleans was up 21-10 and had the ball with 8 minutes to go, and they basically told the Giants: "We are done trying. See if you can come back and win". And the Giants accepted the challenge and won.Quote:
Originally Posted by country978
New Orleans did nothing but run the ball, get predictably stuffed and punt the rest of the game, and the Giants scored 3 times in a row and won. He had a good career, but it looks like the game really has passed Sean Payton by. In 2021 you can't be up by 11 points, go 2-3 passing the ball with no turnovers for the rest of the game, and lose. It just isn't acceptable coaching. Maybe in 1961 that was passable, but in 2021 that is straight malfeasance.
Between that and the Oregon game, I think I really am done for awhile.
Bets for Oct 4-Oct 10(Week 11)
****New Bad Line Alert***
Cognizant LPGA - $1000 on J Ko +1400 MGM she is +750 other places
Current
$500 Parlay
Spanish Open Rahm +250 & Senior PGA Constellation Mickelson +400 to win $8,250
Start $50,000 Remaining $56,700 Current Week $0 Last Week +12,850
Total Win/Loss +8,200
————
She opened +750 in most places. Almost double the line. Got to do it. Don’t take her +750. Strictly Bet MGM +1400 play. I would expect them to adjust line soon.
See Current MGM and Caesars below..
I would not get too down, this weekend was a wild one. I am kicking myself not taking the under in the Alabama - Ole Miss game. It was 80 at kickoff. I mean fucking 80. I was pissed after I missed it, so what did I do? I took MI State under where the O/U was 70. Playing Western Kentucky, should be an easy one, right? Nope the WKU QB lights up the MI State defense for 31. Could have been worse though, I nearly bet Arkansas. Actually the day simply would have ended earlier I suppose since it was a noon game. Saturday was a train wreck. Sunday night worse.Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamWhat a gut punch the end of that game was. New Orleans was up 21-10 and had the ball with 8 minutes to go, and they basically told the Giants: "We are done trying. See if you can come back and win". And the Giants accepted the challenge and won.Quote:
Originally Posted by country978
New Orleans did nothing but run the ball, get predictably stuffed and punt the rest of the game, and the Giants scored 3 times in a row and won. He had a good career, but it looks like the game really has passed Sean Payton by. In 2021 you can't be up by 11 points, go 2-3 passing the ball with no turnovers for the rest of the game, and lose. It just isn't acceptable coaching. Maybe in 1961 that was passable, but in 2021 that is straight malfeasance.
Between that and the Oregon game, I think I really am done for awhile.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Snead
Vikqueens shit the bed at home. But, max bet on Seattle ML and a 2.5 unit bet on Giants @ +285 paid nicely.
Raiders +3
Raiders ML and game total Under 51.5
GL
I already have a decent sized bet on the Raiders - Chargers over 51.5. Thinking about 2x down. Anyone think otherwise?
I’m riding the teaser train til it runs out of track. Two recurring pieces last week were the Bengals and Bucs. -1½ miraculously worked on both. More luck than smarts. That is the NFL (as the ball doinks off crossbar etc.)
Here’s another.
Las Vegas Raiders +9
New England Patriots -3
I’m just following sharps (Raiders +3) and the Dogs success (38-25 ATS @ 60%) on the season.
On the other leg, I am self aware enough to know I have errantly fallen under the spell of Patriot Mac Jones cause Tampa’s wretched defense made him look promising. Recency bias. I get it. I am a flawed human being.
Just action and experimenting sexually.
19-17 was a win for the Pats last night.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Jones looks good, Bill had a magnificent game plan per usual. If they had a healthy running back.........
no spell, he's good. He was great in college and picked up the pats offense quick enough to start the season. I still wouldn't take him over Trevor Lawrence but we're all going to be liking this kid for years to come. I hope you're not choking yourself as part of the experiment. Its like bath salt - you just dont wanna cross that line.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
That’s my point though. Yes, Jones looked good but he looked not so good the week before. Tampa defense is wretched and injured and awful.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog19-17 was a win for the Pats last night.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Jones looks good, Bill had a magnificent game plan per usual. If they had a healthy running back.........
Mac Jones looks good bonus trivia
Mac Jones is 7-of-7 for 74 yards when CB Richard Sherman is the nearest defender. Sherman also has a DPI penalty.
Sherman was released from the mental health clinic? Who knew.
its only his 4th game and at least he knew enough to put the ball there. I would not trade him for Fields, Lance or Wilson. I'm not sold on the weapons he has around him at this point either. The game against Miami was as awful as it gets but they lost that game in spite of a great performance by Jones in his 1st game. I like Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence better as far as all the young qbs are concerned but I don't share the same concerns about him as you at all.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarThat’s my point though. Yes, Jones looked good but he looked not so good the week before. Tampa defense is wretched and injured and awful.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Mac Jones looks good bonus trivia
Mac Jones is 7-of-7 for 74 yards when CB Richard Sherman is the nearest defender. Sherman also has a DPI penalty.
Sherman was released from the mental health clinic? Who knew.
I had people over last night. Many casuals and women. Some seriously talking like Mac Jones was the new Brady. He’s not. He’s not awful either.Quote:
Originally Posted by country978its only his 4th game and at least he knew enough to put the ball there. I would not trade him for Fields, Lance or Wilson. I'm not sold on the weapons he has around him at this point either. The game against Miami was as awful as it gets but they lost that game in spite of a great performance by Jones in his 1st game. I like Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence better as far as all the young qbs are concerned but I don't share the same concerns about him as you at all.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
The restaurants at Patriot Place (the house that Brady built) gonna be a lot slower going forward.
I was explaining that Brady was about to break Brees passing record. After all my talk when it happened Brady gave no fucks and just played on. Brees standing there in his suit like a dope. So was I
Remember the crying and hugging when Brees broke the record? Lol.
Meant lost the point spread for the Bucs. For some reason I still think Brady plays for the Pats.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Raiders ML
Suzy Kolber not bad for an older Jew
She was definitely not pretty when she was younger. Hmmmm. Maybe it’s the hair.
I obviously got nothing happening.
Neither do the raidersQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Glad I didn’t bet anything preflop.
Yeah, +3 is drawing dead but I think I’m live +9.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdogNeither do the raidersQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Glad I didn’t bet anything preflop.
Oh, who am I kidding?
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Yeah, I am in trouble, we are all part of the same forum win or lose.
But yeah, I am 25-75 going into this second half, 25 being me. Large bet going in flames.
The raiders just gave you a little hopeQuote:
Originally Posted by tgullQuote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Yeah, I am in trouble, we are all part of the same forum win or lose.
But yeah, I am 25-75 going into this second half, 25 being me. Large bet going in flames.
and a 46 yard pass interference …. that’s the NFL I knowQuote:
Originally Posted by country978The raiders just gave you a little hopeQuote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmarand a 46 yard pass interference …. that’s the NFL I knowQuote:
Originally Posted by country978
refs are wearing raiders colors.
I am resigned to the fact this is a loss. I hate the NFL. What a trainwreck 3 days, LSU, BUCS and now this.
Not enough yellow flags tonight
When I saw the poneytail I had a bad feeling.
Back to legitimate wagering tomorrow
Bets for Oct 4-Oct 10(Week 11)
New
Shriners PGA - Sam Burns $1,000 at +2500 (MGM)
Current
Cognizant LPGA - $1000 on J Ko +1400 MGM she is +750 other places
$500 Parlay
Spanish Open Rahm +250 & Senior PGA Constellation Mickelson +400 to win $8,250
Start $50,000 Remaining $55,700 Current Week $0 Last Week +12,850
Total Win/Loss +$8,200
————
You can find Burns 25-1 on BET MGM but he’s 22-1 most other places. Normally I would not bet a guy after a win, but I can’t help myself. It was not a stressful Sunday for him. He is absolutely striping the ball. He didn’t putt well statistically but burned plenty of edges. I am willing to fade the hangover even in Vegas this week. Would be easy to sit back and enjoy the profits from last week but I have decided to try and really make a run.
J Ko I can’t pass up the added +650 in equity. Not in love with her this week but it would be negligent to not pounce on the price.
Took them a day to adjust odds on J Ko. I can’t take it, but always a great feeling when they offer you $300 to cancel your bet. Especially before it starts. Hopefully some others got the odds as well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDimeTook them a day to adjust odds on J Ko. I can’t take it, but always a great feeling when they offer you $300 to cancel your bet. Especially before it starts. Hopefully some others got the odds as well.
I was thinking that it may not be the worst time to "martingale" Sei Young Kim this week, a term and system I learned about recently on another thread. But you are far better at this stuff than I am and as always I wish you GL with J Ko as I watch from the sidelines. Definitely hard to bet against J Ko as she will always be around the top of the leaderboard.
Looks like Draftkings may have stopped with LPGA fantasy. Has not been available for a few weeks now.
Joe you are very knowledgeable with the LPGA and your insights are always something I enjoy and take into consideration. Luckily when you have a betting proposition of 25-1 on Sei Young there is no need to Martingale the stake. Scamdicappers use that system with straight wagers for the most part.Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeD
As for the fantasy, it could simply be a function of the last two tournaments being 3 day affairs. Last week was over here in Atlantic City and the tickets were going for absolute crumbs and they weren’t selling. It is also coming right off the Ryder Cup and the end of the PGA season, so a lot of golf media just isn’t around. The PGA tournament last week wasn’t even covered on network TV, just the Golf Channel.
I would be surprised if it’s gone for good off DK. The lack of information is a double edged sword. It can lead to getting really nice overlays like J Ko this week. However, it also greatly reduces information/stats/news when it comes to handicapping. I remember having a sizable bet on J Ko a few months back and the LPGA media not having a single article that she had hurt her wrist. It was mentioned during the telecast after the tournament started and pissed me off.
They have been saying they are going to start to have more info regarding strokes gained and other stats, but I haven’t seen shit yet. Hopefully they will follow through, at least to a certain extent. I realize they have a fraction of money at their disposal than the men’s game.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDimeJoe you are very knowledgeable with the LPGA and your insights are always something I enjoy and take into consideration. Luckily when you have a betting proposition of 25-1 on Sei Young there is no need to Martingale the stake. Scamdicappers use that system with straight wagers for the most part.Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeD
As for the fantasy, it could simply be a function of the last two tournaments being 3 day affairs. Last week was over here in Atlantic City and the tickets were going for absolute crumbs and they weren’t selling. It is also coming right off the Ryder Cup and the end of the PGA season, so a lot of golf media just isn’t around. The PGA tournament last week wasn’t even covered on network TV, just the Golf Channel.
I would be surprised if it’s gone for good off DK. The lack of information is a double edged sword. It can lead to getting really nice overlays like J Ko this week. However, it also greatly reduces information/stats/news when it comes to handicapping. I remember having a sizable bet on J Ko a few months back and the LPGA media not having a single article that she had hurt her wrist. It was mentioned during the telecast after the tournament started and pissed me off.
They have been saying they are going to start to have more info regarding strokes gained and other stats, but I haven’t seen shit yet. Hopefully they will follow through, at least to a certain extent. I realize they have a fraction of money at their disposal than the men’s game.
It really is amazing how the media jams the WNBA down everyone's throat when it is pretty much unwatchable yet barely covers the LPGA, where there are many marketable, skilled athletes with tournaments that are almost always competitive. And betting wise there is no comparison at all as golf always gives a good sweat down to the wire.
Help!! Are the dodgers worth betting at -235?
-235, why bother? The 7.5 over looks good. I get you have two great pitchers going tonight, but do you really want to be sweating a 3-2 game in the 7th with runners on second and third. I get it, the sharps have this set up for noobs like me to bet the under. Druff is kinda right, playoff baseball is set up so tight it almost begs staying away.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BET
I took the over 7.5. Nearly even odds. Bet more than I should have. You have two great pitchers, so this is a risk, but there are bats on each side and both pitchers are over age 35, so I am hoping they are worn down. I guess we will see.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull-235, why bother? The 7.5 over looks good. I get you have two great pitchers going tonight, but do you really want to be sweating a 3-2 game in the 7th with runners on second and third. I get it, the sharps have this set up for noobs like me to bet the under. Druff is kinda right, playoff baseball is set up so tight it almost begs staying away.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BET
I know -235 is awful but mid week and looking to fire on something. Hard to lay the 1 1/2 runs@ -117Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull-235, why bother? The 7.5 over looks good. I get you have two great pitchers going tonight, but do you really want to be sweating a 3-2 game in the 7th with runners on second and third. I get it, the sharps have this set up for noobs like me to bet the under. Druff is kinda right, playoff baseball is set up so tight it almost begs staying away.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BET