be advised before reading this that this is a semi-homer pick and I don't cap...
NOVA v WVU...line stands at 4.5/5 right now...If the line gets to 4 I really think there is value on the NOVA end...
ive watched damn near every NOVA game for as long as I can remember and the thing more than anything that gives NOVA trouble is long, athletic teams...even though NOVA plays a guard heavy lineup big doesn't really bother NOVA...these kids just man up and fight like motherfuckers and do a pretty good job negating size...
what does WVU do? they press the shit outta teams, speed them up, and make them make stupid mistakes...issue with that here is that NOVAs top 6 can all handle the ball...on a really bad day you would say that NOVAs two worst ball handlers, Spellman/paschal, are 'AVERAGE'...and that's on a day where they are playing like shit...that doesn't happen too often...so jay wright is gonna put 5 guys that can handle the ball well, pass well on the floor at the same time...the press on the whole wont bother NOVA...what does that press do? if broken properly it allows the guy with the ball to find open shooters...I haven't watched a lotta other teams night in and night out, but cant imagine there are any better teams in the country than NOVA at doing that...and if NOVA is finding open 3 point shooters, I have to imagine that it's gonna be a helluva long night for WVU...add in the fact that NOVA isn't playing WVU on the one day turnaround and had a full week to prepare for this press...that is absolutely huge...
the one thing about NOVA is the tendency to play tight in march/april...shit happened against BAMA...that first half was shit, then somebody lit a fire under Mikal bridges ass and he went fucking off for like 22 in the first 10 minutes of the 2nd half...the press doesn't really allow you to play tight...you aren't thinking, you are reacting to what you are seeing and going with the flow...the press doesn't allow your brain to get in the way of your natural ability...again that's a nice edge for NOVA...
NOVA is definitely giving up size on the inside to WVU so the offensive glass will be a source of worry...but as much of a worry as it is, these guys have been outsized before I don't see that being a ton of concern...
another little interesting tidbit about this game...WVU played their 2nd game on sunday at 10PM ET...I haven't looked, but I'm willing to bet that they didn't get out of san diego until Monday morning, flying all the way back east...so I'm willing to bet they lost a day of prep on Monday...they probably flew to boston last night so they really only had a couple of days to prepare for this game...NOVA played on noon on Saturday, in Pittsburgh which is around an hour or so flight from home in suburban philly...
I just think there are gonna be a lotta good chances for NOVA to win this game...at 5, I'm kinda meh on it...definitely wouldn't fire on it...but at 4, I think there's some value there and I might even fire on it although I know it's the biggest cardinal sin in betting to fire on a team you are heavily pulling for...
