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Isn't that the way you'd expect the line to live given the betting?Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
my book went to 4.5 and now just hit 5...Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenismy book went to 4.5 and now just hit 5...Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
4.5 is market price. Still way more money on SMU.
Interesting market for sure.
Just curious, where are you seeing the heavier $ on SMU?
I'm seeing that the betting was heavy on SMU initially, but the money started to come in on LA Tech about 6 days ago, and due to a jump in LA Tech money today, there's actually more on LA Tech.
I'm also seeing that the quick blip of the line being 3.5 was due to that flood of $ on LA Tech, and then it popped back to 4.5 after a flood of $ came the other way.
????
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Originally Posted by TellafriendIsn't that the way you'd expect the line to live given the betting?Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Never mind. It's been a long day.
This was on the covers twitter handle a few hours ago and I've seen other reports saying the same.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Despite 61% of bets on SMU (bit.ly/2BR4G6x), the line for the DXL Frisco Bowl has moved from Mustangs -5 to -4 versus Louisiana Tech. At 71 points, this is the biggest total on the bowl betting board.
Sportsbook.ag is showing 58% at the moment.
William Hill showed 68% of the tickets and 81% of the $$ on Monday.
I think it's logical we are getting some buyback on LaTech now. That said we had a lot of RLM on this game early on.
I see sportsbook.ag shows 56% of tickets on SMU but they never list the $.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyThis was on the covers twitter handle a few hours ago and I've seen other reports saying the same.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Despite 61% of bets on SMU (bit.ly/2BR4G6x), the line for the DXL Frisco Bowl has moved from Mustangs -5 to -4 versus Louisiana Tech. At 71 points, this is the biggest total on the bowl betting board.
Sportsbook.ag is showing 58% at the moment.
William Hill showed 68% of the tickets and 81% of the $$ on Monday.
I think it's logical we are getting some buyback on LaTech now. That said we had a lot of RLM on this game early on.
Sportsinsights has told a different story for awhile. Right now they claim 45% of $ is on SMU, and 59% of tickets. They've shown at least 35% of $ on LA Tech since late 12/14, and often in the 40s (now 56%).
I've been trying to figure out how many sources Sportsinsights really has. They like to claim 50, but I don't think I believe that. However, I do notice an amazing correlation in many cases between their $ figures and the Pinnacle/Westgate lines, so I tend to believe them.
BTW I am not doubting your LA Tech pick. I'm in that camp as well, and will probably throw some $ on it. Just noticed that the betting numbers I was seeing were different. I did see reverse line movement early on, as you mentioned.
NBA:
Boston Under 200 (199.5 ok)
OKC -7.5 (8 ok, but -7.5 still exists on Bovada)
OKC Under 197.5 (197 ok)
May post more shortly.
More NBA:
Memphis +10
Detroit Over 197 -115 (197.5 -110 ok)
DeMar DeRozan over 9 assists + rebounds -135 (5dimes) or -120 (Bovada)
Took La Tech and the over in college FB.
Rockets/Lakers O226. Could be a blowout, but both these teams B units play fast and try to pile on the points in blowouts, so not too worried.
Right now LA Tech is back to 4.
I see many sharps are on it too. Fired myself at 4.
GL everyone
Of my posted picks, the sharps are only on the Boston under and the Memphis +10.
The sharps also seem to love Atlanta and Orlando but I can't fully get behind those, so I didn't touch those games.
Don't ever question me again Todd.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
No worries. I'm not that guy. I secretly post here so that someone can come in and tell me stupid a play is from an angle I'm not thinking about.
the whole movement was really strange...haven't seen too many lines move that quickly that far away from game time (especially in a mid week bowl game)...I looked it was 4.5 and then about 5 minutes later it got to 5 and then slammed down to 4 again...this was 2 hours ago too...Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
#FadeVermParlay
LaL u226.5
SMU -4
SMU u71.5
Free money
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I think it is what it is at this point. I see more public money on SMU, sharps split. Some people see an underachieving 2017 La Tech team. Others see a La Tech team that came on late in the year playing a team who's coach and assistants checked out and new ball coach who hasn't been there 15 minutes calling the plays with a first round WR who, if you ask me, shouldn't even suit up.
Guess we going to find out soon enough.
For what it's worth I think of you got a book with +3 1h there might be more value in it than +4 for game.
Remember between 4.5 and 6 is no mans land when it comes to NCAAF spreads. The 1.5 points is almost completely meaninglessQuote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisthe whole movement was really strange...haven't seen too many lines move that quickly that far away from game time (especially in a mid week bowl game)...I looked it was 4.5 and then about 5 minutes later it got to 5 and then slammed down to 4 again...this was 2 hours ago too...Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff