Am I going to be wrong about NFL? Here’s the schedule. We will see
Someone told me South Point has a mobile sports book in the parking lot. I asked for what? It was a she so was left hanging.
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Am I going to be wrong about NFL? Here’s the schedule. We will see
Someone told me South Point has a mobile sports book in the parking lot. I asked for what? It was a she so was left hanging.
NFL makes 80% of its money from TV 20% from the stadiumQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
College makes 80% from the stadium 20% from TV
That’s why we are going to have NFL on TV with no fans and college is going to say “we don’t want to risk it for the children”. College can’t make enough money to cover the expense of all the other sports
Bill Simmons podcast laid it all out as you have. It was pretty compelling on the heels of the monster numbers generated during the Draft Broadcast.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyNFL makes 80% of its money from TV 20% from the stadiumQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
College makes 80% from the stadium 20% from TV
That’s why we are going to have NFL on TV with no fans and college is going to say “we don’t want to risk it for the children”. College can’t make enough money to cover the expense of all the other sports
This will probably be my first year sitting out the futures though.
Just listened to the most recent Mike Lombardi pod.
He was bullish on the Ravens Over (9.5 I think) and Bears Under (8 I think).
I'm 50/50 on whether you typo'd/misremembered the ravens total (its 11.5) or whether that dolt Lombardi actually misread it himself and raved about how great a deal 9.5 is. BLUE-CHIPPER! I've read some good things about him from writers I respect, but listening to him is cringe worthy 75% of the time.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
I really like Pats u9 right now but waiting on the final important piece of QB musical chairs to settle before firing on it.
You are the first to address the Lombardi issue and I think you’ve nailed it.Quote:
Originally Posted by gutI'm 50/50 on whether you typo'd/misremembered the ravens total (its 11.5) or whether that dolt Lombardi actually misread it himself and raved about how great a deal 9.5 is. BLUE-CHIPPER! I've read some good things about him from writers I respect, but listening to him is cringe worthy 75% of the time.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
I know he has value but I think he is on air too many hours of the week in too many venues. My take on Mike is he is just running his mouth to earn a living and you assigning 75% cringe is the right number.
I usually just shut him off. It’s proven not to be worth the investment of my time.
every once in a while, if I kinda like a sports podcast, I'll download some old show and give it a listen. I don;t care if someone is wrong a lot, just as long as their reasoning is sound, they make good arguments, etc.
DL any old Lombardi show and he's almost embarrassing with his takes. He's half a mouthpiece for his connections, half otherwise ludicrous opinions on who's good or what works, with no real substance behind it. He can be an entertaining listen, I grant you, but he's worthless otherwise. IMO, obv.
Been fucking around with horses the past few weeks. I don’t know a lot but I know enough that the rainbow 6 at gulfstream is fucking imposible.
$8M pool three weeks ago though - can’t not take a stab.
I misremembered. I rechecked the pod and Lombardi was bullish on O11.5 for Ravens.
I knew of him as being a name in FO's in the NFL for a bit, but then...I think it was right after he was fired from the Browns, he was a regular on Simmons pod the next season and holy shit was he bad. Constantly messing up players names, and not like mispronouncing, but literally making up first names that were wrong. I mean, the guy had been a GM (for the Browns, but still) 12 months earlier! I started skipping those pods. Cousin Sal now is 10x better at NFL commentary than Lombardi was then.Quote:
Originally Posted by Crowe Diddly
The average show then was:
1. Lombardi butchers some stars name while saying whether they are a blue or red chip player
2. Any sort of football analysis began with "When i was in NE, Bill would....."
3. Crazy Al Davis story (only part worth listening to)
Logged into my sportsbetting account for first time in a couple months
Texans +10 opening day game. Too many points, especially considering if the game goes as planned stadium likely to be empty or neutral site. (This was a Lombardi play FWIW, but I agree)
Also, anyone else really like Bears U8.5 -155? A lot of juice, I would probably rather it went down to 8, but if you look at that schedule a lot of tough games. Packers and Vikings 2x, NFC South and AFC South.
Agree with this, but make sure you carefully read the fine print regarding how your particular book handles wagers on games played either not on the original date or at the original venue.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Pittsburgh over 9 games —115. Seems too good?
Well, I am ok with +10 even if it was a normal opening night game in front of a packed home crowd. So either I have a bet under some terms which I am ok with, or it is cancelled. No biggie.Quote:
Originally Posted by go_buccosAgree with this, but make sure you carefully read the fine print regarding how your particular book handles wagers on games played either not on the original date or at the original venue.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
(Of course I had a similar bet in the playoff game and Houston was up 21-0 and didn't even come close to covering, so there is that)
Ive seen a lot of things in the way of UFC and Boxing judges in my life. Tonight I saw a first.
A split decision 30-27, 27-30, 29-28
How the fuck is that even posible?
You know how it’s possible. The first real wagering event in months. Can you imagine the action? Can you imagine all the incentive to fix an event?Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I almost made a post yesterday about point shaving and refs and the NBA when I saw the MGM’s proposal to leave 4 properties completely closed, fully staffed, all eateries open, just for the players, staff, family, coaches and press covering the event. You enter and you can’t leave until the NBA finals are over. You leave, you can’t return. Everyone lives there for months. Staff can’t leave. Live there for the entirety. All table games open.
You have aging players seeing their careers end with this virus. You have guys getting their big payday pushed back indefinitely. Refs out of work and stuck in a casino and possibly get stuck and they can’t even leave.
CJ McCollum estimating 150 out of 450 players live paycheck to paycheck. Salary cap hit being talked about in 40% haircut range.
All with no gambling action anywhere. No casinos open. No sports to wager on. Normally the idea of a player being corruptible is crazy given the current contracts, but now? How about a ref? The $ you could pay to assure an outcome feels infinite.
It feels like any sport that reopens, never has there been a greater chance to corrupt someone.
You’re talking about playing games where if a few people test positive, they’ll shut it all back down anyway. I can’t imagine the temptation and how profitable fixing an event would be, and a better time where guys might be vulnerable to the payouts because of how high they could be. Anything. Tennis match if they start playing?
Just any event that is going on with no other action in the world. The implications feel staggering. Forget daily Covid tests. I think you’d need daily FBI level lie detector tests for any ref in anything. Anyone who could influence outcome. I’ve seen many articles about the resurgence of organized crime with this virus. We might get a look at it.
If you're betting the Under you should hope the number goes up.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
think he's looking for reduced juice on the 8 line...Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakIf you're betting the Under you should hope the number goes up.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
so if he's paying -155 for U8.5 he's willing to take U8 and a push if they go 8-8 at probably something like -110 or whatever the line would be if they moved the number to 8...
Ah yes, got it.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisthink he's looking for reduced juice on the 8 line...Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
so if he's paying -155 for U8.5 he's willing to take U8 and a push if they go 8-8 at probably something like -110 or whatever the line would be if they moved the number to 8...
Donnie, I'm out of my element.
Yeah, the problem is it takes A LOT to move NFL win totals. It would probably go to -200 before it moved.
I checked another book and it was U8.5 -170.
Read this and if you still intend to wager on sports futures you are the most degenerate of the degenerates.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRYou know how it’s possible. The first real wagering event in months. Can you imagine the action? Can you imagine all the incentive to fix an event?Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I almost made a post yesterday about point shaving and refs and the NBA when I saw the MGM’s proposal to leave 4 properties completely closed, fully staffed, all eateries open, just for the players, staff, family, coaches and press covering the event. You enter and you can’t leave until the NBA finals are over. You leave, you can’t return. Everyone lives there for months. Staff can’t leave. Live there for the entirety. All table games open.
You have aging players seeing their careers end with this virus. You have guys getting their big payday pushed back indefinitely. Refs out of work and stuck in a casino and possibly get stuck and they can’t even leave.
CJ McCollum estimating 150 out of 450 players live paycheck to paycheck. Salary cap hit being talked about in 40% haircut range.
All with no gambling action anywhere. No casinos open. No sports to wager on. Normally the idea of a player being corruptible is crazy given the current contracts, but now? How about a ref? The $ you could pay to assure an outcome feels infinite.
It feels like any sport that reopens, never has there been a greater chance to corrupt someone.
You’re talking about playing games where if a few people test positive, they’ll shut it all back down anyway. I can’t imagine the temptation and how profitable fixing an event would be, and a better time where guys might be vulnerable to the payouts because of how high they could be. Anything. Tennis match if they start playing?
Just any event that is going on with no other action in the world. The implications feel staggering. Forget daily Covid tests. I think you’d need daily FBI level lie detector tests for any ref in anything. Anyone who could influence outcome. I’ve seen many articles about the resurgence of organized crime with this virus. We might get a look at it.
You have literally no idea. You don’t even know if games will be played much less under what conditions.
The Fed needs to offer a bailout program to those of us who have outstanding futures for NBA & NHL responsibly placed pre-pandemic. I can’t taste or smell anything and I feel nauseous. Those tickets are a pure crap game now.
They will just get voided. No biggie. I lose probably an average of 1 CFB future/year (that Iwould have won pretty much 100% o the time) due to losing games because of hurricanes. This year, it is pretty much a lock that I would have lost $$ on my NBA futures, so nice to see it go the other way for once.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarRead this and if you still intend to wager on sports futures you are the most degenerate of the degenerates.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
You have literally no idea. You don’t even know if games will be played much less under what conditions.
The Fed needs to offer a bailout program to those of us who have outstanding futures for NBA & NHL responsibly placed pre-pandemic. I can’t taste or smell anything and I feel nauseous. Those tickets are a pure crap game now.
It’s been so long since I thought about sports.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
I have tickets on conference and championships, for instance, Will these be refunded? Why would they?
Again, I haven’t read a single opinion for months. However, let’s take NHL. It’s a goalie business. These guys haven’t seen a puck unless they are playing knee hockey in their living room with their 4 year old. Who in the fuck has any idea who is hot or not now?
Makes me wanna puke.
Lol, I have the Hurricanes in a future. I do hope a hurricane cancels that.
Edit:
Tablet - NHL Futures - Conference Futures - Odds to Win the Eastern Conference - Carolina Hurricanes +1200
I don’t know. Now that I look maybe this isn’t so bad.
I may not know about line movements but I think betting over 11.5 wins is risky no matter how good a team seems. Only a small number gets to 12 in any one year. Last year was an outlier.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
im in the same boat...Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaardThey will just get voided. No biggie. I lose probably an average of 1 CFB future/year (that Iwould have won pretty much 100% o the time) due to losing games because of hurricanes. This year, it is pretty much a lock that I would have lost $$ on my NBA futures, so nice to see it go the other way for once.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
got lucky that DK paid out the GS U a long time ago...but I was looking at breakeven at absolute best...I don't know what the game threshold they have to get to before season long bets are valid, but if it's damn near a full season like 76-78 games or something no fucking way they're getting to that number...
would be quite the LOL if I got my money back on my LAL U bet that I was so damn confident in before the season...might have to donate that windfall to charity for karma's sake...
I blame myself for that one.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
BOL already helped themselves to my Lakers under. We took that under about the same time. What was the number? I can’t begin to remember. That might help narrow down when they scooped my ticket. It’ll help me find it in the millions of graded wagers.
Wouldn’t that be a miraculous save.
Yeah. I am not touching that one.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakI may not know about line movements but I think betting over 11.5 wins is risky no matter how good a team seems. Only a small number gets to 12 in any one year. Last year was an outlier.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
I like the Bears U pick, but haven't pulled the trigger yet. I doubt it is moving much anytime soon, so plenty of time.
-For team total futures my book doesn't take any of the $$ out, even when they are locks, until every regular season game is played. Kinda annoying with CFB that they make me wait for the Army-Navy game to grade my bets. Also, all the bets where the requisite number of games are not played are voided, even if the bet covers anyways, which has happened multiple times in CFB.
--PS. I also had Warriors under, which is the only future which is already a lock, although I was very likely to go 3-6 or 4-5 at best, so definitely having all the bets void is good for me, although it would have been an extra cherry on top if they had already paid me for the Warriors bet.
I BELIEVE (key word) I got it at 54.5 maybe 53.5 before it tanked to like 51.5/52 after they absolutely took a bed shit in FA outside of signing AD...pretty sure I got it at 54.5 because the closing line was around 2-3 wins below where I got it last june...Christ who woulda thunk that I made that wager over a year ago and probably wont see a settlement of it before that bet celebrates it's first birthday...Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI blame myself for that one.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
BOL already helped themselves to my Lakers under. We took that under about the same time. What was the number? I can’t begin to remember. That might help narrow down when they scooped my ticket. It’ll help me find it in the millions of graded wagers.
Wouldn’t that be a miraculous save.
crazy...
EDIT: just checked on my app, it was 54.5 on june 20th...
EDIT2: on the blaming yourself part...I mean who the fuck would actually think that the lakers were going to try to be champions of the regular season with a 60K minute LeBron on the roster?!?! makes no fucking sense, but before china happened there we were...plus ADs injury history in NO I mean I'm definitely not mad about that bet...just makes total sense that those guys weren't gonna play, but 70 games (if that) in the regular season so that they would be ready for the 2 month sprint in May...total opposite of a team like the rockets, whose over 55.5 I was super confident in because you know Westbrook is gonna be out there 78-82 games unless a limb falls off and even then he might still try to duct tape it back on and play...and harden is almost the same way...chasing those empty calories (triple doubles/MVPs) in the regular season...
goddamn it I miss fucking sports...
Lakers had a VERY soft schedule early and got out to a big early lead. Once they started getting tough games they started getting some L's, although they also had some big wins.
The getting out to a big lead probably had a lot to do with their seeming decision to not take games off and go for the #1 seed. If they had started out with a tough schedule and been middle of the pack they might have had a different strategy. Also, there was still a non-zero chance of a AD or James injury, and either of them are out for an extended time things get ugly quick.
Thanks man. I placed June 17th, 2019. Like finding a needle in a haystack.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
:yes
if you can help me with Ricky Fowler in the Masters I’d like to get rid of that too.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarRead this and if you still intend to wager on sports futures you are the most degenerate of the degenerates.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
You have literally no idea. You don’t even know if games will be played much less under what conditions.
The Fed needs to offer a bailout program to those of us who have outstanding futures for NBA & NHL responsibly placed pre-pandemic. I can’t taste or smell anything and I feel nauseous. Those tickets are a pure crap game now.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/14/us/nf...spt/index.html
One was round draft pick in 2019 and already doing armed robbery to snag a few thousand at a house party. Made 1.9 million in first year of 4 year 10+ contract. Other made 2.9 last million last year and has another year left.
Got clobbered today on TVG. Lost $700. Trying to catch up with another couple hundred on some overseas tracks tonight but we all know how that turns out. Too bad, I was on a heater for like two weeks, but the last four days I have been crushed. Pools are decent though when all said and done, weird watching all the horse handlers walking around with masks.
Anyone bet on Korean baseball? Seems like there is a lot of action.
I've come close to firing on Korean baseball but my heart doesn't have the heart to start betting on these assholes
I could not even name one Korean baseball player, I am sure there are a couple ex-major leaguers over there. It's tempting just to bet, go to bed and wake up and see what happened. It's action.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spookygook
why wouldn't a guy take the +165 brady/phil v -190 Manning/Woods??
Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
Because the better two golfers are on the other team and the entire public has jumped in team Phil/Brady?
Beating the Book with Gil Alexander. A once-a-week football season staple. Daly approved.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spookygook
I have previously admitted to suffering a bit of sexual confusion over Gil Alexander. Serious man-crush. My favorite sports listen - bar none.
I haven’t given sports any attention for weeks. I happened to tune in to get an update on the various league’s resumption. I was rewarded instead with Ray Marino from Bookmaker.eu. He runs live wagering for Bookmaker in normal times.
To get an offshore book to talk publicly is historic shit. Thought I’d share.
https://beatingthebook.libsyn.com/be...er-bookmakereu
The audio started off dreadful. Skip to 6:50.
Spook, you mention resorting to Korean baseball. I posted a bit about my Russian table tennis exploits. Look, anything obscure is likely to offer better opportunity (edge) than say, NFL or NBA. I took a look and found the live wagering algorithm was fucking retarded. I mean they sometimes forgot to even update. Tremendous fun. Gradually, I was not able to bet. Either they shut me off or they recognized how messed up it was.
Bookmaker said that the Russian Table Tennis write was bigger on a daily basis than MLB. WTF. . I stumble bummed into the biggest corona action. Ray Marino said table tennis kept Bookmaker alive. Period.
Marino said he was terrified about fixing. I wrote that I saw some ridiculous lines and outcomes. Here are players making very little in a sport with a huge handle. I didn’t know it at the time. I just posted that odds seemed wrong with certain dogs. The whole experience was god-like cause it was often clear who was going to win but the live odds were rigidly tethered to the preflop odds.
I still remember the players names.
@24:00 Table tennis
@27:20 “A day of table tennis was bigger than a day of baseball”
He talks about writing live odds on NFL replays. Never knew about this offering. Sick action. There is truly no edge on either side cause NFL rules are a coin-flip and the definition of variance. Ray Marino admits to this.
Marino talked about the simulated games like Madden and the stock market offering.
The whole pod is a must listen if you take bookmaking serious.
Gil Alexander hails from Washington DC. So there is that, Krypt
You can almost see the tears when he talks Redskins.
DNegs on Cousin Sals gambling podcast a couple days ago.
https://www.theringer.com/2020/5/27/...aniel-negreanu