Nick Saban is the real MVP for pulling Hurts. That’s 3-1 on rushing unders. All hail Daly and chinamaniac.
I’m entertained.
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Nick Saban is the real MVP for pulling Hurts. That’s 3-1 on rushing unders. All hail Daly and chinamaniac.
I’m entertained.
4-1 here with Hurts also going under barelyQuote:
Originally Posted by KidPresentable
Color me :entertained
I have Sonny over Rushing and Ridley pushing 4 receptions (Fromm over comps was over but that was the one over I liked). Everything else was under. Fucking bookies going to be piiiiiiiised.Quote:
Originally Posted by KidPresentable
Second day in a row I got pounded in the ass when the bet seemed pretty safe in the final minutes.
Still went 1-1 again, with Sac covering the over by 8. Believe it or not, while I haven't picked many overs, those have been my most successful bets this year.
Record is now 107-75-2.
Early nba bets
Took Miami +4.5 and U206.5. Toront just played an OT game yesterday and Lowry hurt. Expect them to come out flat at home.
Yeah, you're god but you give such stale lines that nobody else can get. If I could get those lines I'd be god too if I bet props, which I don't because the limits are too small & the books will cut you off if you win & no REAL gambler bets them.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyI have Sonny over Rushing and Ridley pushing 4 receptions (Fromm over comps was over but that was the one over I liked). Everything else was under. Fucking bookies going to be piiiiiiiised.Quote:
Originally Posted by KidPresentable
There is an old saying from 80s 90s NBA handicapper legend Scotty Morris that goes "no lead or deficit in the NBA is safe because in the NBA everyone makes a run"Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
It's the one thing that I hate about betting NBA games. Just when you think your safe the noose is waiting
I lurk Druff’s picks and rants.
I have been entertained.
He is coy about his tools and process but whatever. He could have deployed some mechanical turks here or elsewhere if he thought the process was sound.
If he genuinely believes his results aren’t variance he should chart his results over time. The result would force him to decide wether his approach and ideas were valuable and ahead of the lines early season. Perhaps the gap narrowed as the season progressed.
You chart the results and trade the chart. Or you can think. Thinking rarely works. Trade what you see.
You've got about 1.5 hours to bet this one:
OKC under 205 -115 (204.5 -110 ok)
Probably the only play today.
Sharps are on my play.
They are also on Miami +4.5, Lakers under 212.5, and Dallas under 215. However, I can't endorse any of those at this time (though I'm not going against them either).
I took Dallas/Orlando O214.5. I think it will be a surprisingly close high scoring game.
MiamI starting shooting guard is resting. Don’t love this but nothing to do about it now.
I'll be honest. Shortly after the NBA season started, I had the urge to start betting it, but I didn't want to throw away $ betting like a fish.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
So I came up with a completely different process which I felt had a chance to be +EV, but obviously wanted to put it into practice before betting anything large. (I'm betting money which is semi-meaningful, but nothing which will result in a big win or big loss for the year, no matter what.)
Then it broke out really hot, and I still kinda dismissed it as variance.
Then it hung around as high as 61% over 162 picks, and I thought at that point I really had something. I started talking to people about maybe betting bigger or doing something else with them.
Literally the next day I was greeted with an 0-4 -- none of which were close. It was like a kick in the nuts. I didn't bet bigger on them, fortunately, but decided that this was a wake up call to wait-and-see, even if it was just one bad day (and just my second four-game losing streak of the season).
Then the next day, I almost went 0-3, which was also quite rare. I was saved when an under -- on pace to lose for almost the whole game -- managed to cover by a few points. Then I got blown out the next day on my only pick, to fall to 1-7. I'm 8-6 since then in picks, so the bleeding has ended.
But let's look at the past 22 picks. I'm 9-13, which is bad, but not terrible, even for someone hitting 61% over 162 picks prior to that.
But more disturbing is the way these games have gone down. Of the 9 wins, only three of them were easy (where there was never a sweat). Of the 13 losses, 11 of them were clear for most of the game, with only two (Houston under and the previous day's Portland side) being last-minute screw jobs.
So in 22 picks, I put up only 3 easy winners but 11 easy losers. Ouch.
What about before? I didn't count, but it was mostly the opposite. Many of my wins were of the decisive, little-sweat variety, while many losses were fairly close. Yes, there were some close wins and blowout losses, but up through December 30, the average win margin was definitely far higher than the average loss margin, especially if you removed a few outliers on both ends.
And I think that's just as important to follow as wins and losses. If a game is close the whole way and you win/lose based upon some meaningless points at the end, that says nothing of your skill. It means the books were correct in setting the line, and the ball just fell/didn't fall your way.
Skill in NBA handicapping is most apparent when you're REALLY right fairly often, rather than falling slightly on the side of right. A 1-point win pays the same as a 30-point win, but the handicapper you should follow is the one putting up a lot of decisive wins. Up through December 30, I was that handicapper. Since then, I have not been.
We shall see what happens.
let me ask you around the time of the slump were you doing anything different? E.g. reaching for picks?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffI'll be honest. Shortly after the NBA season started, I had the urge to start betting it, but I didn't want to throw away $ betting like a fish.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
So I came up with a completely different process which I felt had a chance to be +EV, but obviously wanted to put it into practice before betting anything large. (I'm betting money which is semi-meaningful, but nothing which will result in a big win or big loss for the year, no matter what.)
Then it broke out really hot, and I still kinda dismissed it as variance.
Then it hung around as high as 61% over 162 picks, and I thought at that point I really had something. I started talking to people about maybe betting bigger or doing something else with them.
Literally the next day I was greeted with an 0-4 -- none of which were close. It was like a kick in the nuts. I didn't bet bigger on them, fortunately, but decided that this was a wake up call to wait-and-see, even if it was just one bad day (and just my second four-game losing streak of the season).
Then the next day, I almost went 0-3, which was also quite rare. I was saved when an under -- on pace to lose for almost the whole game -- managed to cover by a few points. Then I got blown out the next day on my only pick, to fall to 1-7. I'm 8-6 since then in picks, so the bleeding has ended.
But let's look at the past 22 picks. I'm 9-13, which is bad, but not terrible, even for someone hitting 61% over 162 picks prior to that.
But more disturbing is the way these games have gone down. Of the 9 wins, only three of them were easy (where there was never a sweat). Of the 13 losses, 11 of them were clear for most of the game, with only two (Houston under and the previous day's Portland side) being last-minute screw jobs.
So in 22 picks, I put up only 3 easy winners but 11 easy losers. Ouch.
What about before? I didn't count, but it was mostly the opposite. Many of my wins were of the decisive, little-sweat variety, while many losses were fairly close. Yes, there were some close wins and blowout losses, but up through December 30, the average win margin was definitely far higher than the average loss margin, especially if you removed a few outliers on both ends.
And I think that's just as important to follow as wins and losses. If a game is close the whole way and you win/lose based upon some meaningless points at the end, that says nothing of your skill. It means the books were correct in setting the line, and the ball just fell/didn't fall your way.
Skill in NBA handicapping is most apparent when you're REALLY right fairly often, rather than falling slightly on the side of right. A 1-point win pays the same as a 30-point win, but the handicapper you should follow is the one putting up a lot of decisive wins. Up through December 30, I was that handicapper. Since then, I have not been.
We shall see what happens.
In the grand scheme of things is a 1-7 stretch or a 9-13 stretch really going through a slump? All things considered if that is the worst slump then that is a great thing. Totally normalQuote:
Originally Posted by Charham
Speaking of slumps, I really liked today's OKC under but it looks like it's headed for loserville.
Bad 3rd quarter.
Still has a shot but we are getting to the point where I'm close to turning it off.
Don't regret this one though. Theory behind it was good, just doesn't seem to be happening.
To answer Charham, no I'm not doing anything different.
Portland/OKC under lost pretty big tonight.
Interestingly both other sharp plays which are going have either won or are going to win, plus one yet to start.
Anyway 0-1 today takes me to 107-76-2.
Went 2-1. Could have actually been 3-0. Orlando went 3 minutes without scoring at the end and over only missed by 2 points.
Meh.
Here are picks on the early games. I'll be back later maybe with more.
Washington under 207.5
Detroit under 205
Chicago +4.5
ok like Chicago, and Detroit plays. bit worried about Washington being able to hit 110-120 so will pass on it. GL to us.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Hmmm i like the knicks at home against the trash bulls. Tonight we do battle, Druff.
:knife
Curry out.
GSW/LAC Under 220.
*** NBA Prediction ***
Russel Westbrook gets ejected from tonight's game.
Washington and Utah just rained down 12 points in a minute, in what was otherwise a close over/under for me.
:gay
Chappy getting the better of our Chi/NY bet so far.
I agree with simpdog about the Warriors under.
Massive number of people sitting.
Curry/Thompson on GSW, Rivers/Griffin/Gallianari on Clippers.
Line has dropped to 219 -115 Bovada, and I'm officially picking that. 218.5 -110 ok.
Too bad with the Washington game... low scoring 4th almost saved me, but then a flurry of 3s at the end have killed the pick. Went over with 23 secs left.
Pistons are crushing but the over/under is going to be close. Favored to win at the moment.
Bulls have been consistently 4-6 points behind for a long time. That one will be close too, though Chaps has the edge because fouling will often destroy a game where it otherwise would have finished within 4.
Detroit under covered.
Chicago should have won for me but is going into OT now, so I can get fucked. I have +4.5 but this sucks, especially on the road.
Great. They let Porzingis run right in there and dunk the ball in the final second.
2OT
Never easy
I consider myself a decent gambler. Not as good as some, better than most.
Really like Pillly on Sunday catching the 3. Lot of public $$ on Atlanta. Home dog in second round is undefeated vs the spread all time and wins outright a lot. Felt this way all week. Well I guess I was overseeved last night because I just found this in my open bets.
182 / 2000
04:35 PM NFL SUPER BOWL LII MLVP
[TNT] [987518] MATT RYAN +1100
Might be time to dry out.
I also bet under in the GS game using the same logic. Oops. Very sloppy game, but the wrong kind of sloppy, and it is leading to a lot of fast break open buckets on both ends. it also doesn't help that Durant is such a good shooter. Bet pretty much dead at HT.
Druff,
You realized I won the bet you were escrowing between me and Tellafriend, right? I PM'd you a couple times about it but never got a reply, so not sure.
It's not looking good but not dead.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Any NBA game where a 98 point 2H wins it for you has a chance.
Durant is also 9/10 and 3/3 from outside. So that can't last.
He is theoretically on a minutes restriction, so he will probably be done soon. But that is asking a lot the way this game is going.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffIt's not looking good but not dead.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Any NBA game where a 98 point 2H wins it for you has a chance.
Durant is also 9/10 and 3/3 from outside. So that can't last.
Ok now you can give up.
What a fail.
Whoops. We meant to say clippers +12 Not underQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Do you need a payday loan to get through this difficult time?
Yes. Are you offering?Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Do you need a payday loan to get through this difficult time?
Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaardYes. Are you offering?Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
Sure. 18.99% apr.
Can you ship me $1000. I swear I'll send back the $1189.90 one year from todayQuote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Sure. 18.99% apr.
Yesterday's 2-2 put me at 109-78-2 for the season. Since the December 31 slump started, I'm 11-16. Since Thanksgiving, I am 65-58-1, so there's definitely been some cooldown. I was 44-20-1 prior to Thanksgiving.
My overs have been my most successful bets this year (though there haven't been all that many), so why not go that route today?
Here we go:
Lakers +2.5
Lakers Over 211
Cleveland Over 223
Right now I'm seeing the best lines for all of these on Bovada, and in fact you can get Lakers +3 -115 if you aren't assigned the sharp set of lines there. But even with the sharp set of lines, you are still getting -105 on all of the above at the moment.
Sharps are on Lakers +2.5, Toronto +3.5 (I'm not on the Toronto one).
San Antonio has no Leonard, Parker, Green, or Gay. Lakers should be full strength.
Toronto (in the Cleveland game) will be without Lowry and Ibaka.