So it is ordained, so it is done.
Printable View
So it is ordained, so it is done.
TIDQuote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Minnesota game has shitload of scoring at the end of 1H and now might lose that too.
If I lose 7 in a row after rarely losing 3 in a row over my first 160+ picks, that's gonna super tilting.
1-2 about the best I can do at this point.
Sorry to hear. I lose 7 bets in a row at least once a week. Sometimes multiple times a week. I would like to say it hurts less with time, but it doesn't.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
The Oklahoma play calling was just so atrocious coming down the stretch and OT. Whoever was calling the plays never even gave them a chance to win the game. He should take full responsibility for this loss.
Two shots at OT in that Orlando over and both 3-pointers missed.
Of course fair chance I still lose in OT because I would have needed 23 points.
Need a slow 4Q with Minn or I'm 0-7 in past 2 days.
The other game (that had already gone over) wend to OT. That is when you know it is just not your day.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
In the Laker game, despite only being down 14 in beginning of 4th looks like Walton has thrown in the towel. I watch a lot of Laker games and don't recognize these guys, that is how deep down the bench he has gone. Such luminaries as Zubac, Blue and Caruso getting long 4th Q run in a manageable game.
The blowout nature of that game saved me and I stopped the bleeding.
1-2 day
99-67-2 record
Pride cometh before the fall. You proclaimed here and on radio that statistically your run was beyond mathematical explanation. You must know something.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Weeeeellllllllllll.......
I didn’t have a dog in the fight but I hate when refs blow calls in Big Spots
The first pic is when OU had 3rd down and short with about 330 left in the 4th up by 7. Obvious tackle by the face mask on Ga which should have been 15 yards and a 1st down which would have forced Ga to use their TOs and another 1st down the game is over
Want to know how GA was able to score so easily in OT to end the game? holding by Frohm on the edge. Should have been a 10 yard penalty from the 22 (where the hold actually started) pushing Ga back and if they gain no more yardage makes the FG more difficult at the very least....obviously other outcomes could have happened but at least it plays out
I said on radio that there was a 99.55% chance it was not just due to luck.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22Pride cometh before the fall. You proclaimed here and on radio that statistically your run was beyond mathematical explanation. You must know something.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Weeeeellllllllllll.......
If I do go into a slump from which I can't escape, I will determine that 2nd half NBA betting is too tough and shut it down.
I'm not going to panic over a single 1-6 streak.
Meh. Its football. There is probably 50 plays like that a game that aren't obvious that the refs don't see. I was watching those plays live and don't remember anything obvious. Oklahoma got super conservative play calling in the 4th Q when they took back the lead and OT. They went multiple drives and never even threw the ball downfield once except for a free play.Quote:
Originally Posted by lvpkr1009I didn’t have a dog in the fight but I hate when refs blow calls in Big Spots
The first pic is when OU had 3rd down and short with about 330 left in the 4th up by 7. Obvious tackle by the face mask on Ga which should have been 15 yards and a 1st down which would have forced Ga to use their TOs and another 1st down the game is over
Want to know how GA was able to score so easily in OT to end the game? holding by Frohm on the edge. Should have been a 10 yard penalty from the 22 (where the hold actually started) pushing Ga back and if they gain no more yardage makes the FG more difficult at the very least....obviously other outcomes could have happened but at least it plays out
They played a prevent offense and it prevented them from winning.
The odds against losing 6 straight coin flips is 98.44%. So was this just bad luck or are you that bad?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffI said on radio that there was a 99.55% chance it was not just due to luck.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
If I do go into a slump from which I can't escape, I will determine that 2nd half NBA betting is too tough and shut it down.
I'm not going to panic over a single 1-6 streak.
See what I'm getting at? You can't say 99.5% this is skill based yet the 98.44 chance was just run bad
I know you like to troll but even you can't be as stupid to not consider sample size. 1-6 is 98.44% but the probability and sample size need to be considered here. Him saying it is 99.5% skill is over 170games at 59% which is above average and diminishes variance which can lead to a 98.4% run, same way you can have 20 blacks in roulette. You're just being a d-bag for the sake of being one. Get fucked.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22The odds against losing 6 straight coin flips is 98.44%. So was this just bad luck or are you that bad?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
See what I'm getting at? You can't say 99.5% this is skill based yet the 98.44 chance was just run bad
Read your 'tired, old, rehashed..' thread and see how it could apply in this thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22The odds against losing 6 straight coin flips is 98.44%. So was this just bad luck or are you that bad?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
See what I'm getting at? You can't say 99.5% this is skill based yet the 98.44 chance was just run bad
Cavs -8.5 tonight.
Blazers on a road back-to-back after winning in OT against the Bulls last night. They looked pretty tired last night, too.
Lillard returning after missing last 5 due to hamstring injury.
In the spirit of this forum my new years resolution is for no one else to start a post with "I know you like to troll but." These woahhvicky dis videos have finally made me see the light. Either you think he's trolling or you don't. Having it both ways must stop.
I'm sorry if this makes me look like I support Jesearles' unfounded attacks on owner because I obviously don't but Jesus Christ either you think a guy is trolling or you don't. I personally think he's being serious here but that is neither here nor there. The days of posts where people tell others they are trolling succeeded by sentence after sentence of telling the guy what a retard he is for his opinion must end pronto.
So just to recap, I have a $200 ML straight up bet with Tellafriend on a team that is somewhere around a -400 favorite. I could just bet the underdog now and lock in ~$50 profit. However, not gonna do it. Maybe it if was $2k, but for $200 just gonna let it ride. Still, huge thanks to Tellafriend for giving me all the equity. Much love.
Sacramento under 205 (204.5 -110 ok)
That's it for today.
Was traveling all weekend, so let's start off 2018 with a couple more NBA props.
E. Kanter under 13.5 points -130
E. Kanter under 10 rebounds -115
Both on Bovada
Just to recap, $200 must be a big deal to you.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Off to a terrible start with Kanter having 6 points and 4 rebounds in the first quarter. He's been playing a lot less minutes lately, Noah supposed to be back in this one, and just in general a bad matchup for him against the SAS big men. Oh well, we'll have to see how the rest of this one goes.Quote:
Originally Posted by KidPresentable
We can't all be rich ballers like you. I know if I bet ML on a bet I could get +350 it would bug me. Must be nice to be so rich not to give a fuck like you.Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendJust to recap, $200 must be a big deal to you.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Watching this game. It is starting of very fast. Both teams running and getting a lot of layups. Not good for the under.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
It is. Maybe do another recap on where we are with this $200 wager?Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaardWe can't all be rich ballers like you. I know if I bet ML on a bet I could get +350 it would bug me. Must be nice to be so rich not to give a fuck like you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
Did OU win?
Finished with 12 and 6 to somehow come out 2-0. Unfortunately(?) the best part of my handicap was the playing time.Quote:
Originally Posted by KidPresentableOff to a terrible start with Kanter having 6 points and 4 rebounds in the first quarter. He's been playing a lot less minutes lately, Noah supposed to be back in this one, and just in general a bad matchup for him against the SAS big men. Oh well, we'll have to see how the rest of this one goes.Quote:
Originally Posted by KidPresentable
9-1 +7.85
Too bad my props are disabled on Bovada. KidPresentable really off to a hot start.
I'm the opposite of hot.
1-7 in the last 8, and none of those 7 losses were close.
This is the reverse of what I was doing for much of the year -- not just winning 60%+, but winning many by blowouts, and not losing many by a wide margin.
I will be engaging in some introspection here as to what's going wrong, and see if any adjustments are warranted.
Getting the 100th win is proving tough. I went from 98-62-2 to 99-69-2 in the past 3 days.
Shockingly small amoutn of green for the new kid. Starts right off on a 9-1 ripper.
Just saying.
As I have discussed before there is no point to doing props for most of us. If you lose the books let you do them and if you win they shut you out. I am not part of some syndicate with a bunch of burner accounts to do props. There is literally no upside for me (and 99% of other sports bettors) to doing props.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaardAs I have discussed before there is no point to doing props for most of us. If you lose the books let you do them and if you win they shut you out. I am not part of some syndicate with a bunch of burner accounts to do props. There is literally no upside for me (and 99% of other sports bettors) to doing props.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
This seems somewhat true, and why I don’t participate much in this thread either, but clearly Daly has a real job and a family and would spend his time doing something more profitable if it wasn’t worth his time. And his prop prowess is the only true long term sustainable thing Ive ever saw here in regards to sportsbetting. There’s a few exceptions, Druff’s NBA run, BGC seems quite good at March Madness, JMM on boxing, but the first two are still sample size questions and JMM has strong opinions rarely. Daly and props are the only thing I’ve ever seen sustained and beyond variance. It does suck the way the books treat them. This new kid is off to a hot start. Interesting to follow.
Totally unrelated, just because there’s no where else to put it. Just saw Marvin Lewis resigned for two more years. 15 years running of no playoff victories. They should be exempt from Rooney Rule for 100 years after this and be able to hire retread old white guys without a single question ever.
Fair enough. I am just explaining why most of us aren’t too interested with props and hot prop runs. Cause we can’t ever find most of those props at those prices, and if we could we would just get shut out anyways if we win.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRQuote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
This seems somewhat true, and why I don’t participate much in this thread either, but clearly Daly has a real job and a family and would spend his time doing something more profitable if it wasn’t worth his time. And his prop prowess is the only true long term sustainable thing Ive ever saw here in regards to sportsbetting. There’s a few exceptions, Druff’s NBA run, BGC seems quite good at March Madness, JMM on boxing, but the first two are still sample size questions and JMM has strong opinions rarely. Daly and props are the only thing I’ve ever seen sustained and beyond variance. It does suck the way the books treat them. This new kid is off to a hot start. Interesting to follow.
Totally unrelated, just because there’s no where else to put it. Just saw Marvin Lewis resigned for two more years. 15 years running of no playoff victories. They should be exempt from Rooney Rule for 100 years after this and be able to hire retread old white guys without a single question ever.
Following a gambler, even a seemingly successful one, making bets you can’t even make isn’t too interesting.
The owner of the bengals is notoriously cheap and Lewis seems ok with that in a way I doubt other coaches would be. Hard to entice anyone new when they know you aren’t going to spend any $$ to give them a chance.
Shut down the thread Druff.
Aparently we only let loosers play here.
It takes work to get action down on winning bets. Sorry to tell you books don't like giving away money. But my all means keep firing at Bama -4.5, it will win half the time.
I loved when the race-baiters went after the LOLBrowns last month for rushing to hire Dorsey as GM. Their last 2 GM's were black, and the current coach is black. Rooney rule is fucking dumb and clearly not needed anymore in most situations. there is a black assistant (Maybe it was Austin, the lions DC...cant remember) who spoke out last year about getting all these token interviews by teams who had their own guy lined up already....but just had chat with a black guy for a couple hours.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRQuote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
This seems somewhat true, and why I don’t participate much in this thread either, but clearly Daly has a real job and a family and would spend his time doing something more profitable if it wasn’t worth his time. And his prop prowess is the only true long term sustainable thing Ive ever saw here in regards to sportsbetting. There’s a few exceptions, Druff’s NBA run, BGC seems quite good at March Madness, JMM on boxing, but the first two are still sample size questions and JMM has strong opinions rarely. Daly and props are the only thing I’ve ever seen sustained and beyond variance. It does suck the way the books treat them. This new kid is off to a hot start. Interesting to follow.
Totally unrelated, just because there’s no where else to put it. Just saw Marvin Lewis resigned for two more years. 15 years running of no playoff victories. They should be exempt from Rooney Rule for 100 years after this and be able to hire retread old white guys without a single question ever.
I have made a lot of money on Daly's props.
In fact, I wish I could have made more, but the limits aren't very high (the biggest challenge with props, as Daly mentioned).
And yes, I usually get worse lines than Daly's #stalelines because of the shallowness of the market, but I only bet the ones which are fairly close, and therefore still +EV. Good props still have wiggle room to where they are still profitable even if the line degrades some.
Anyway, if you don't want to bother with Daly's props, that's better for me, because it means you won't drive the line to get worse (something a single bet can do).
*** WARNING ***
This is the coldest I've been in the NBA since I started betting this season.
I'm 1-7 in the last 8, and all seven losses were substantial misses -- none were close to covering.
The substantial missing is what concerns me more than losing 7 of 8, which is the converse of the confidence I had before when I was winning by 15-30 points on a lot of my bets, and rarely getting blown out when I lost.
Anyway, with that said, here are two bets today from the very large NBA schedule:
Detroit +2 (moneyline +115 is ok)
Minnesota Under 212.5 (212 ok)
Detroit held close but crapped the bed at the end.
Minnesota under was winning the whole way, and now will take it for certain barring OT.
Probably 1-1.
Yeah, under covered by 17.5.
Detroit was tied very late, but ultimately lost 111-104.
1-1 day, got my 100th win finally, but also my 70th loss.
100-70-2 is my record.
I bet Warriors -5.5 and 10 minutes later Durant is announced out and the line goes down to 4. You literally can't make this shit up.