Quote:
Originally Posted by
tgull
There are going to be a couple hundred thousand die in the US due to Covid-19, plain and simple. Trump had nothing to do with this. In the grand scheme of things neither did China. It's a hundred year plague running it's course, these things happen when you have global travel. The second wave is not going to be like 1917/1918 because we don't have 100,000 service men coming back at once from Europe in 1918 with a new strain. So we have a tough rest of year and it should pass.
Trump will win or lose on where the virus and more importantly where the economy is October 2020. Plain and simple. Joe Biden is really irrelevant, which is why he is in his basement. I am kinda a Trump fan, sometimes yes, sometimes no. But you remember his Convention speech? "I alone can fix it". So he is on the clock, we will see. He is going all in on getting this over with and just opening up, we will see if it works. He has gambled before, won some and lost some, we will see.
My post had nothing to do with the election. I never envisioned a scenario where we were opening up when things haven’t significantly improved. I assumed we’d ride it out and get a low number and we’d worry about fall in fall. I didn’t envision starting up again when we are at maybe 70% of the worst days. That’s uniquely different.
The deaths are not that relevant as they mostly hit retirement age people as far as the workforce. It’s more psychological as far as people spending money. I saw a recovery where people kind of enjoyed a respite and went back to life as normal for awhile. Eating out, hitting the gym, doing shit like normal while knowing it might be bad again come fall. Long term spending would be an issue, but not short term. If there were 200 new cases a day, no one is thinking twice about eating out and catching a movie unless they are a hypochondriac. That’s lottery odds of getting sick. 20000 is a completely different animal. I really have no idea what people will do and was curious as to how anything thrives with that.
For the people who want shit opened now, I am curious what they want beyond getting out of the house. I eat out every day or grab takeout. I grab a drink every day. Im at the gym 4 days a week. I don’t like this at all. I think the business built for a pandemic economy are generally the few that have thrived during it. I’m generally curious about the trades, people who sell cars, bars, diners. All the scenarios I imagined were a fun summer where people went about life and it might come back in fall. I truly couldn’t imagine a scenario where we were opening at a stage like this. I’m not even disagreeing that we should. Most indications are this isn’t going anywhere and there is no help in sight, so it wasn’t political, it’s more curiosity about what people’s risk tolerance is tomorrow and if they feel comfortable even catching a movie or eating out. If they aren’t, what business survives any of this
