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Isn't that the way you'd expect the line to live given the betting?Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
my book went to 4.5 and now just hit 5...Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenismy book went to 4.5 and now just hit 5...Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
4.5 is market price. Still way more money on SMU.
Interesting market for sure.
Just curious, where are you seeing the heavier $ on SMU?
I'm seeing that the betting was heavy on SMU initially, but the money started to come in on LA Tech about 6 days ago, and due to a jump in LA Tech money today, there's actually more on LA Tech.
I'm also seeing that the quick blip of the line being 3.5 was due to that flood of $ on LA Tech, and then it popped back to 4.5 after a flood of $ came the other way.
????
Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendIsn't that the way you'd expect the line to live given the betting?Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Never mind. It's been a long day.
This was on the covers twitter handle a few hours ago and I've seen other reports saying the same.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Despite 61% of bets on SMU (bit.ly/2BR4G6x), the line for the DXL Frisco Bowl has moved from Mustangs -5 to -4 versus Louisiana Tech. At 71 points, this is the biggest total on the bowl betting board.
Sportsbook.ag is showing 58% at the moment.
William Hill showed 68% of the tickets and 81% of the $$ on Monday.
I think it's logical we are getting some buyback on LaTech now. That said we had a lot of RLM on this game early on.
I see sportsbook.ag shows 56% of tickets on SMU but they never list the $.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyThis was on the covers twitter handle a few hours ago and I've seen other reports saying the same.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Despite 61% of bets on SMU (bit.ly/2BR4G6x), the line for the DXL Frisco Bowl has moved from Mustangs -5 to -4 versus Louisiana Tech. At 71 points, this is the biggest total on the bowl betting board.
Sportsbook.ag is showing 58% at the moment.
William Hill showed 68% of the tickets and 81% of the $$ on Monday.
I think it's logical we are getting some buyback on LaTech now. That said we had a lot of RLM on this game early on.
Sportsinsights has told a different story for awhile. Right now they claim 45% of $ is on SMU, and 59% of tickets. They've shown at least 35% of $ on LA Tech since late 12/14, and often in the 40s (now 56%).
I've been trying to figure out how many sources Sportsinsights really has. They like to claim 50, but I don't think I believe that. However, I do notice an amazing correlation in many cases between their $ figures and the Pinnacle/Westgate lines, so I tend to believe them.
BTW I am not doubting your LA Tech pick. I'm in that camp as well, and will probably throw some $ on it. Just noticed that the betting numbers I was seeing were different. I did see reverse line movement early on, as you mentioned.
NBA:
Boston Under 200 (199.5 ok)
OKC -7.5 (8 ok, but -7.5 still exists on Bovada)
OKC Under 197.5 (197 ok)
May post more shortly.
More NBA:
Memphis +10
Detroit Over 197 -115 (197.5 -110 ok)
DeMar DeRozan over 9 assists + rebounds -135 (5dimes) or -120 (Bovada)
Took La Tech and the over in college FB.
Rockets/Lakers O226. Could be a blowout, but both these teams B units play fast and try to pile on the points in blowouts, so not too worried.
Right now LA Tech is back to 4.
I see many sharps are on it too. Fired myself at 4.
GL everyone
Of my posted picks, the sharps are only on the Boston under and the Memphis +10.
The sharps also seem to love Atlanta and Orlando but I can't fully get behind those, so I didn't touch those games.
Don't ever question me again Todd.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
No worries. I'm not that guy. I secretly post here so that someone can come in and tell me stupid a play is from an angle I'm not thinking about.
the whole movement was really strange...haven't seen too many lines move that quickly that far away from game time (especially in a mid week bowl game)...I looked it was 4.5 and then about 5 minutes later it got to 5 and then slammed down to 4 again...this was 2 hours ago too...Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
#FadeVermParlay
LaL u226.5
SMU -4
SMU u71.5
Free money
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I think it is what it is at this point. I see more public money on SMU, sharps split. Some people see an underachieving 2017 La Tech team. Others see a La Tech team that came on late in the year playing a team who's coach and assistants checked out and new ball coach who hasn't been there 15 minutes calling the plays with a first round WR who, if you ask me, shouldn't even suit up.
Guess we going to find out soon enough.
For what it's worth I think of you got a book with +3 1h there might be more value in it than +4 for game.
Remember between 4.5 and 6 is no mans land when it comes to NCAAF spreads. The 1.5 points is almost completely meaninglessQuote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisthe whole movement was really strange...haven't seen too many lines move that quickly that far away from game time (especially in a mid week bowl game)...I looked it was 4.5 and then about 5 minutes later it got to 5 and then slammed down to 4 again...this was 2 hours ago too...Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
true on that...guess that's why the line movement was fucking nuts...Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyRemember between 4.5 and 6 is no mans land when it comes to NCAAF spreads. The 1.5 points is almost completely meaninglessQuote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
Lol Dykes just had an interview that was more or less "fuck it - let's see what happens"
well this is certainly a start...jesus...
So I saw the Lakers pop out to a 9-0 lead over the Rockets (in Houston), and yet Bovada still had them as +800 to win.
While the first few minutes of an NBA game aren't particularly meaningless, I started to think, "Hey, I'd take Lakers at 8-to-1 if spotted 9 points", and then while I was considering it, the line changed to +550 (Lakers up 16-6), and I decided I wasn't that interested.
Now Lakers are up 37-22 and it's +175.
I think I'm going to start firing those big dog live bets in cases like these, because sometimes in the NBA, the way a team starts is indicative of the way they will play the whole game, and I think that's a far better spot than just taking shots at random +800 type dogs.
Anyway, regarding my bets, everything looking good so far. Boston under & OKC under looking very early on, and OKC is also killing it so the spread bet is also looking nice. Would be great to jump off to an immediate 3-0 like two days ago.
So far Daly looking pretty damn correct
#NEVERFAKELINESQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
How's it going fellas?
I'm entertained sir.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Thoughts on 2nd half wagering ??
Just got home. So far so good, although I see the 3rd Q of laker game is going kind of slow.
You can't touch this game. Anything can happen from a 2H perspectiveQuote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendI'm entertained sir.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Thoughts on 2nd half wagering ??
2 more TDs in the next 1.5Q would be nice. I would guess 50/50 game goes over at this point.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyYou can't touch this game. Anything can happen from a 2H perspectiveQuote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
Edit: Never mind, both teams just appear to be running out the clock. Would need some big runs breaking through to go over against stacked boxes. Not likely.
I am quietly having a decent couple weeks. Unfortunately I am going to get raped in 2 weeks when my NFL futures are due, so I basically need to have a good couple weeks just to break even.
I think I am going to be something like 2-7 in NFL futures. Basically opposite of college FB where I did well.
Winner. Though it ended up barely over (10) as none of the starters played in the 4th with Toronto up 20+ most of the second half.Quote:
Originally Posted by KidPresentable
3-0 start on PFA
Thanks for the winners, Druff. And nice hit on the Lakers in game ML.
So... easy 3-0 start with the double OKC pick and Boston under.
Then Dallas/Detroit had a 71 point 2nd quarter, which is pretty much gold for an over 197 pick, right?
Welllllllllllllllll.....
They only score 37 in the 3rd, and then the 4th quarter also has anemic scoring for the first 8 minutes, and suddenly it's a real sweat.
Now it's up to 191 with 3 min left, so I'm pretty safe barring a really bad beat.
So provided this hits AND Memphis can keep it to a single-digit loss, that will be a 5-0 day.
Just narrowly missed 5-0 on Monday thanks to overtime fuckery.
Oh, and the Lakers won. Really kicking myself for not firing 500 on that +800.
glad I tailed you. 4 and 0 so far, you are in the zone. TY. just stay away from Cleveland. :-)Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
In the meantime, many sharp bettors backed Orlando and Atlanta and got stomped on.
:entertained
Let's go Fucking Fresno
3 Team - Parlay
FAU -21 (-110) Win
Louisiana Tech ML (+165)
Fresno St ML (+125)
300/3123
PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
Ticket# Date Placed Amount
Dec 19
05:33 PM [228] FRESNO STATE +115 (ESPN)
[212] FLORIDA ATLANTIC (FAU) -21½-110 (ESPN)
[213] LOUISIANA TECH +155 (ESPN)
300/2860
Dec 19
07:05 PM PARLAY (5 TEAMS)
[CFB] [212] FLORIDA ATLANTIC -23½-115
PENDING
FAT 212
Florida Atlantic
211 AKR
Akron
-
19 December 2017 7:00 pm
Dec 20
08:06 PM [CFB] [213] LOUISIANA TECH +163
Dec 24
08:30 PM [CFB] [228] FRESNO STATE +2½-110
Dec 27
05:15 PM [CFB] [238] TOTAL u45½-110
(BOSTON COLLEGE vrs IOWA)
Dec 30
12:00 PM [CFB] [257] LOUISVILLE -6½-120
150/4175
I really like Louisville too.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Keep on crushing these bowls!
Memphis covering until final 4:30, then they let it go.
97-84 final
4-1 on the day. Twice in last 3 days I've come so close to 5-0, but settled for 4-1.
Today I also scored both my 80th win and 50th loss, moving me to 80-50-2 for the year.
I'm going with Temple TT over 31.5
It's not as strong a bet as some of the other stuff so far this bowl season but I make it 34.5-35.5